When will Jeter get to 3000?

[b0mber]

Hopefully with another team.

not very appreciative are we??

[Hitman23]

not very appreciative are we??

Don't feed the troll.

[Big_E]

Looks like it will be an interleague game. Most likely on the road June 19 is the target date in my projections of 3 GAMES before or 3 GAMES AFTER. unless he stays hot but hotness does not usally last for weeks more like days.
btw I SEE ONLY ONE OFF DAY FOR JETER SOMETIME DURING THE CLEVELAND SERIES. There is already an off day for the next 3 weeks,

He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.

[Kentucky Bomber]

Another "will I be there?" example from experience: a coworker of mine back then was a KC native and worshipped George Brett as the Second Coming. George came to Anaheim down to the short strokes for 3000 but with one game left in the series had 2996, so neither of us thought it worth it to go.

George went 4-4.

[Bub]

Another "will I be there?" example from experience: a coworker of mine back then was a KC native and worshipped George Brett as the Second Coming. George came to Anaheim down to the short strokes for 3000 but with one game left in the series had 2996, so neither of us thought it worth it to go.

George went 4-4.

Figures....he was always making us miserable in one way or another. He was some kind of special hitter though....glad I got to see him play his entire career.

[Tommy1961]

He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.

1.05 hits per game played by Yankees and 1.08 hits per played by Jeter seems a whole lot better chance as it takes a long true sample of games played over the 1st 45 Yankee games played this season

brings the target date to Tuesday June 21 plus or minus a game

if i had to pick a date #3000 would be FRIDAY JUNE 24 DUE TO the low standard diviation

[Big_E]

1.05 hits per game played by Yankees and 1.08 hits per played by Jeter seems a whole lot better chance as it takes a long true sample of games played over the 1st 45 Yankee games played this season

brings the target date to Tuesday June 21 plus or minus a game

if i had to pick a date #3000 would be FRIDAY JUNE 24 DUE TO the low standard diviation

It's not a sample if you use the entire population. (Taking stats refresher right now. )

[PuffNettles9]

DJ started the 2011 season needing 74 hits.....Counting today, 55 days later, and still hasnt gotten to 50 hits (sitting on 49). On average, thats less than a hit a day, of course not every day of the 55 days was there a game played (5 scheduled off days + 2 rainouts vs BAL).

so he currently needs 25 hits (the number which is 1/2 of what he hasnt gotten in 55 days), so take 1/2 of 55 days and thats 27/28 days from now and count the days fwd and thats June 20/21 in Cincy good for me since ill be there for that series

[Kentucky Bomber]

DJ started the 2011 season needing 74 hits.....Counting today, 55 days later, and still hasnt gotten to 50 hits (sitting on 49). On average, thats less than a hit a day, of course not every day of the 55 days was there a game played (5 scheduled off days + 2 rainouts vs BAL).

so he currently needs 25 hits (the number which is 1/2 of what he hasnt gotten in 55 days), so take 1/2 of 55 days and thats 27/28 days from now and count the days fwd and thats June 20/21 in Cincy good for me since ill be there for that series

No, he has 49 hits in 46 Yankee games, of which he's played 44. What good is it to count days? He's at slightly more than a hit a game pace lately, but that increase has come at the expense of not very good pitching. If he reverts to his pattern of about a hit a game vs better pitching then we could see him arriving at 3000 in Wrigley or Cincy, but if he is reviving then he's more likely to get ther in the Stadium beforehand.

[Hitman23]

You guys haven't factored in the 5 game slump he's going to be in at 2999.

Book it.

[groovitude]

He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.

With random chance factored in, I have a pretty good shot with tickets for the 7th and the 14th.

[Bub]

Based on hits/games he played for the entire season, he'll reach 3,000 on Saturday, June 18 at Chicago Cubs, provided that all those games are played and he doesn't get any time off.

[Yankee Tripper]

So not looking good for next Monday then?

[PuffNettles9]

No, he has 49 hits in 46 Yankee games, of which he's played 44. What good is it to count days? He's at slightly more than a hit a game pace lately, but that increase has come at the expense of not very good pitching. If he reverts to his pattern of about a hit a game vs better pitching then we could see him arriving at 3000 in Wrigley or Cincy, but if he is reviving then he's more likely to get ther in the Stadium beforehand.

They play damn near every day so days/games are nearly identical, so by your games method...take 1/2 of the 46 yankees games is 23 games from now (6/18) OR 1/2 of the 44 games he's played in (6/17).

Actual days method = 6/20 or 6/21
Yankee games method = 6/18
DJ played gamed method = 6/17

[HerbieLee20]

Bump.

Switching from "hunch" to "really really hoping" for Thursday.

9 in 6 games ...http://tomorrowpeople.us/images/head...vis_Jr._02.jpg

[pleasepassthesoup]

I'll be traveling on the 16th. You can book that it will happen that night.

[HerbieLee20]

What time do you leave? It's a day game.

Safe travels.

[mr.roy]

Been sayin' from the beginning of the year...... June 20. That's what all the computations from all over the world say.....................averaged out of course.

Thought I'd go along.

[PuffNettles9]

Been sayin' from the beginning of the year...... June 20. That's what all the computations from all over the world say.....................averaged out of course.

Thought I'd go along.

Music 2 my ears!

If I'm being selfish, Derek will NOT be wearing pinstripes when he gets 3000 hits....he'll be wearing the road greys in Cincy! Ill be sure to take lots of pics if thats how the cards fall.

[ctan]

A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

(snip)

Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.

Well, he's getting there, but alas, not going to do it tomorrow unless it's a ridiculous extra-innings blowout of record-breaking proportions. Sigh. The games the past two days have been totally worth being there for, even without the Jeter milestone.

I managed to be at two games the week he broke Gehrig's record but missed the actual day that time, too. Ah well! Like Jeter, I'll be happier if they get back into 1st place than worrying over when he does it.

[HerbieLee20]

On the Menu rest of this homestand:

Carrasco 4.52

Agando 2.10
Derek Holland 4.41
CJ Wilson 3.09

Stat Gurus (Derek vs. them), welcome your predictions!

[Big_E]

Jeter will go 7-for-9 as tonight's game goes 17 innings.

[GordonGecko]

- 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
- 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
- At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
- 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now

[Messerwhitescooter]

I think Jeter would be happier if the yankees return to first place. I really don't care when he gets the 3000 hit.

[Big_E]

- 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
- 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
- At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
- 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now

Your math is incorrect.

YES, he would need to hit about .411 to get the 3000th hit at home in the next 4 games.

BUT

he would need to hit .102 to get the hit at home, on the next homestand. See, the .141 is correct, but only considering the 10 road games. You can't forget about these 4 home games. So 17 AB at home, plus 42 on the road equals 59 AB. 6 hits in the next 59 AB would be a .1017 BA and 2999 hits.