+ Reply to Thread
Page 4 of 6 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 LastLast
Results 76 to 100 of 131
  1. #76
    Addicted Member
    b0mber's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Section 203

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam18 View Post
    Hopefully with another team.
    not very appreciative are we??
    I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan

    Operation 28

  2. #77
    Re2pect Hitman23's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Long Island

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by b0mber View Post
    not very appreciative are we??
    Don't feed the troll.
    You're a stranger til she whispers you can stay.
    You're a stranger til she whispers that your journey's over.


    NYYFans Fantasy Baseball:
    CBS: Evil Empire
    Yahoo: Special OPS

  3. #78
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    37 miles from the Home Office of Baseball

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy1961 View Post
    Looks like it will be an interleague game. Most likely on the road June 19 is the target date in my projections of 3 GAMES before or 3 GAMES AFTER. unless he stays hot but hotness does not usally last for weeks more like days.
    btw I SEE ONLY ONE OFF DAY FOR JETER SOMETIME DURING THE CLEVELAND SERIES. There is already an off day for the next 3 weeks,
    He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
    He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

  4. #79
    Devoted Member
    Kentucky Bomber's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Louisville, KY

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Another "will I be there?" example from experience: a coworker of mine back then was a KC native and worshipped George Brett as the Second Coming. George came to Anaheim down to the short strokes for 3000 but with one game left in the series had 2996, so neither of us thought it worth it to go.

    George went 4-4.
    Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.

  5. #80
    Movin' on Bub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    Clifton Park, New York

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Bomber View Post
    Another "will I be there?" example from experience: a coworker of mine back then was a KC native and worshipped George Brett as the Second Coming. George came to Anaheim down to the short strokes for 3000 but with one game left in the series had 2996, so neither of us thought it worth it to go.

    George went 4-4.
    Figures....he was always making us miserable in one way or another. He was some kind of special hitter though....glad I got to see him play his entire career.
    Let the kids play.

  6. #81
    Senior Member

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    New Jersey

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
    He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.
    1.05 hits per game played by Yankees and 1.08 hits per played by Jeter seems a whole lot better chance as it takes a long true sample of games played over the 1st 45 Yankee games played this season

    brings the target date to Tuesday June 21 plus or minus a game

    if i had to pick a date #3000 would be FRIDAY JUNE 24 DUE TO the low standard diviation

  7. #82
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    37 miles from the Home Office of Baseball

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy1961 View Post
    1.05 hits per game played by Yankees and 1.08 hits per played by Jeter seems a whole lot better chance as it takes a long true sample of games played over the 1st 45 Yankee games played this season

    brings the target date to Tuesday June 21 plus or minus a game

    if i had to pick a date #3000 would be FRIDAY JUNE 24 DUE TO the low standard diviation
    It's not a sample if you use the entire population. (Taking stats refresher right now. )

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

  8. #83
    Super Moderator PuffNettles9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    40-49'37'' N 073-55'40'' W

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    DJ started the 2011 season needing 74 hits.....Counting today, 55 days later, and still hasnt gotten to 50 hits (sitting on 49). On average, thats less than a hit a day, of course not every day of the 55 days was there a game played (5 scheduled off days + 2 rainouts vs BAL).

    so he currently needs 25 hits (the number which is 1/2 of what he hasnt gotten in 55 days), so take 1/2 of 55 days and thats 27/28 days from now and count the days fwd and thats June 20/21 in Cincy good for me since ill be there for that series

  9. #84
    Devoted Member
    Kentucky Bomber's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Louisville, KY

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffNettles9 View Post
    DJ started the 2011 season needing 74 hits.....Counting today, 55 days later, and still hasnt gotten to 50 hits (sitting on 49). On average, thats less than a hit a day, of course not every day of the 55 days was there a game played (5 scheduled off days + 2 rainouts vs BAL).

    so he currently needs 25 hits (the number which is 1/2 of what he hasnt gotten in 55 days), so take 1/2 of 55 days and thats 27/28 days from now and count the days fwd and thats June 20/21 in Cincy good for me since ill be there for that series
    No, he has 49 hits in 46 Yankee games, of which he's played 44. What good is it to count days? He's at slightly more than a hit a game pace lately, but that increase has come at the expense of not very good pitching. If he reverts to his pattern of about a hit a game vs better pitching then we could see him arriving at 3000 in Wrigley or Cincy, but if he is reviving then he's more likely to get ther in the Stadium beforehand.
    Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.

  10. #85
    Re2pect Hitman23's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Long Island

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    You guys haven't factored in the 5 game slump he's going to be in at 2999.

    Book it.
    You're a stranger til she whispers you can stay.
    You're a stranger til she whispers that your journey's over.


    NYYFans Fantasy Baseball:
    CBS: Evil Empire
    Yahoo: Special OPS

  11. #86
    Hughes/Robertson '12. groovitude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Astoria, NY

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    He is averaging 1.3 hits/game this month. That puts him at June 13 vs the Indians.
    He is averaging 1.67 hits/game the last week. That puts him at June 9 vs Boston.
    With random chance factored in, I have a pretty good shot with tickets for the 7th and the 14th.

  12. #87
    Movin' on Bub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    Clifton Park, New York

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Based on hits/games he played for the entire season, he'll reach 3,000 on Saturday, June 18 at Chicago Cubs, provided that all those games are played and he doesn't get any time off.
    Let the kids play.

  13. #88
    NYYF Legend

    Yankee Tripper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Left coast

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    So not looking good for next Monday then?
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  14. #89
    Super Moderator PuffNettles9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    40-49'37'' N 073-55'40'' W

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Bomber View Post
    No, he has 49 hits in 46 Yankee games, of which he's played 44. What good is it to count days? He's at slightly more than a hit a game pace lately, but that increase has come at the expense of not very good pitching. If he reverts to his pattern of about a hit a game vs better pitching then we could see him arriving at 3000 in Wrigley or Cincy, but if he is reviving then he's more likely to get ther in the Stadium beforehand.
    They play damn near every day so days/games are nearly identical, so by your games method...take 1/2 of the 46 yankees games is 23 games from now (6/18) OR 1/2 of the 44 games he's played in (6/17).

    Actual days method = 6/20 or 6/21
    Yankee games method = 6/18
    DJ played gamed method = 6/17

  15. #90
    NYYF MVP


    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    The Kingdom of Back

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Bump.

    Switching from "hunch" to "really really hoping" for Thursday.

    9 in 6 games ...http://tomorrowpeople.us/images/head...vis_Jr._02.jpg

  16. #91

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I'll be traveling on the 16th. You can book that it will happen that night.

  17. #92
    NYYF MVP


    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    The Kingdom of Back

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    What time do you leave? It's a day game.

    Safe travels.

  18. #93
    NYYF Legend


    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Fort Myers

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Been sayin' from the beginning of the year...... June 20. That's what all the computations from all over the world say.....................averaged out of course.

    Thought I'd go along.

  19. #94
    Super Moderator PuffNettles9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    40-49'37'' N 073-55'40'' W

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by mr.roy View Post
    Been sayin' from the beginning of the year...... June 20. That's what all the computations from all over the world say.....................averaged out of course.

    Thought I'd go along.
    Music 2 my ears!

    If I'm being selfish, Derek will NOT be wearing pinstripes when he gets 3000 hits....he'll be wearing the road greys in Cincy! Ill be sure to take lots of pics if thats how the cards fall.
    My NYY Room http://tinyurl.com/y89l8up
    My NYY Hats http://tinyurl.com/yauhxsg
    My NYY Jerseys http://tinyurl.com/ydsggo4
    My Jeter Kicks http://tinyurl.com/yee5tzl

  20. #95
    NYYF Cy Young

    ctan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cambridge, MA

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Man View Post
    A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

    (snip)

    Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.
    Well, he's getting there, but alas, not going to do it tomorrow unless it's a ridiculous extra-innings blowout of record-breaking proportions. Sigh. The games the past two days have been totally worth being there for, even without the Jeter milestone.

    I managed to be at two games the week he broke Gehrig's record but missed the actual day that time, too. Ah well! Like Jeter, I'll be happier if they get back into 1st place than worrying over when he does it.
    SABR Publications Editor - Author FIFTY GREATEST YANKEE GAMES -
    Editor Maple Street Press YANKEES ANNUAL - http://whyilikebaseball.com

  21. #96
    NYYF MVP


    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    The Kingdom of Back

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    On the Menu rest of this homestand:

    Carrasco 4.52

    Agando 2.10
    Derek Holland 4.41
    CJ Wilson 3.09

    Stat Gurus (Derek vs. them), welcome your predictions!

  22. #97
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    37 miles from the Home Office of Baseball

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Jeter will go 7-for-9 as tonight's game goes 17 innings.

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

  23. #98
    NYYF Legend

    GordonGecko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New York City

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    - 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
    - 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
    - At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
    - 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

    Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

    So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now

  24. #99
    NYYF Cy Young

    Messerwhitescooter's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    the 'burbs

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I think Jeter would be happier if the yankees return to first place. I really don't care when he gets the 3000 hit.
    All the fat guys watch me & say to their wives, 'See, there's a fat guy doing okay. Bring me another beer. Mickey Lolich

  25. #100
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    37 miles from the Home Office of Baseball

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    - 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
    - 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
    - At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
    - 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

    Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

    So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now
    Your math is incorrect.

    YES, he would need to hit about .411 to get the 3000th hit at home in the next 4 games.

    BUT

    he would need to hit .102 to get the hit at home, on the next homestand. See, the .141 is correct, but only considering the 10 road games. You can't forget about these 4 home games. So 17 AB at home, plus 42 on the road equals 59 AB. 6 hits in the next 59 AB would be a .1017 BA and 2999 hits.

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts