When will Jeter get to 3000?

[Ram Man]

A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

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A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.

I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.

If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.

Here's how the 2011 Yankee schedule shapes up, with a rough bell curve shown.

June 1  game 56 (wed)@ OAK   *
June 2
June 3  game 57 (fri)@ LA    *
June 4  game 58 (sat)@ LA    **
June 5  game 59 (sun)@ LA    ***
June 6
June 7  game 60 (tue)  BOS   ****
June 8  game 61 (wed)  BOS   *****
June 9  game 62 (thu)  BOS   ******
June 10 game 63 (fri)  CLE   ******
June 11 game 64 (sat)  CLE   *****
June 12 game 65 (sun)  CLE   ****
June 13 game 66 (mon)  CLE   ***
June 14 game 67 (tue)  TEX   **
June 15 game 68 (wed)  TEX   *
June 16 game 69 (thu)  TEX   *
June 17 game 70 (fri)@ CHI-NL*

Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.

[delv]

funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it

[sweet_lou_14]

funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it

It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.

[BRNXBMRS]

I am glad someone else did the research on this, b/c I was wondering about this myself. Thx

[delv]

It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.

i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.

[pleasepassthesoup]

April 5th vs Minnesota.

[Hitman23]

Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.

I'd think so, as long as it wasn't a game winning hit or anything. I think the rivalry is more intense among the fans than the players - Jeter's certainly been around a lot of those players (e.g., Pedroia at the WBC)

[Gusto]

I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.

ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.

[RhodyYanksFan]

When you stop touching yourself at night.

[YankS1302]

I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.

ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.

LOL- that is hilarious. Your probably right though.

[bigjf]

I also have it as June 9th in the pool. Assuming health...

[BroadwayBomber55]

I say May 23rd vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and it will be a single.

[Mr.Muhozi]

against the sawx at yankee stadium hopefully

[Tifoso]

against the sawx at yankee stadium hopefully

Winner.

[Kentucky Bomber]

I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.

[BronxYanks45]

hopefully it will be a game that I'll be at

[Lifelong Fan]

We have tickets to June 12th and 13th so I'll vote for either of those dates.

[jcs71]

I'm wondering if he gets near it in Oakland or Anaheim late May/early June, will they find an excuse to sit him until the Yanks return home againt Boston on 6/7? My gut says no...

[TheJobaRules]

I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.

He was named captain in Cincinnati.

[unfamous loser]

I'm wondering if he gets near it in Oakland or Anaheim late May/early June, will they find an excuse to sit him until the Yanks return home againt Boston on 6/7? My gut says no...

depends on how close it is.

if he's, say, one or so away and there's just that last road game left before a homestand, there's probably little chance he wouldn't sit that game, whether he liked it or not.

if he's one or two away, but smack in the middle of a road trip or just beginning one, they'll just play it through.

[Stanesq]

Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.

Ditto, I was wondering myself

[Kentucky Bomber]

He was named captain in Cincinnati.

True. I was at both the first game in Cincy and in Wrigley that year and I knew he was named Captain before one of the games I attended.

[Dave Visbeck]

It will happen on June 7th.

[PuffNettles9]

personally Im hoping for the Cincy Series, since Ill be roadtripping it to Cincy and would love to witness history during that series. But it would be a nice present for DJ to get it on his Bday/OTD vs COL too