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Thread: When will Jeter get to 3000?
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02-07-11 10:40 PM #1
When will Jeter get to 3000?
A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:
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A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.
I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.
If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.
Here's how the 2011 Yankee schedule shapes up, with a rough bell curve shown.
Code:June 1 game 56 (wed)@ OAK * June 2 June 3 game 57 (fri)@ LA * June 4 game 58 (sat)@ LA ** June 5 game 59 (sun)@ LA *** June 6 June 7 game 60 (tue) BOS **** June 8 game 61 (wed) BOS ***** June 9 game 62 (thu) BOS ****** June 10 game 63 (fri) CLE ****** June 11 game 64 (sat) CLE ***** June 12 game 65 (sun) CLE **** June 13 game 66 (mon) CLE *** June 14 game 67 (tue) TEX ** June 15 game 68 (wed) TEX * June 16 game 69 (thu) TEX * June 17 game 70 (fri)@ CHI-NL*
I can't complain but sometimes I still do. - Joe Walsh
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02-07-11 10:49 PM #2
- Join Date
- Dec 2008
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- dʌ bɹaŋks!
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it
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02-07-11 11:15 PM #3
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02-08-11 07:56 AM #4
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I am glad someone else did the research on this, b/c I was wondering about this myself. Thx
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02-08-11 08:18 AM #5
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- Dec 2008
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- dʌ bɹaŋks!
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02-08-11 08:30 AM #6
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
April 5th vs Minnesota.
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02-08-11 08:38 AM #7
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.
In Cashman I trust.
Players come and go, flags fly forever.
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02-08-11 09:31 AM #8
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
"Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee
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02-08-11 10:19 AM #9
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.
ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.
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02-08-11 10:56 AM #10
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
When you stop touching yourself at night.
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02-10-11 09:04 AM #11
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02-10-11 12:25 PM #12
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I also have it as June 9th in the pool. Assuming health...
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02-10-11 12:33 PM #13
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I say May 23rd vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and it will be a single.
"Being second is to be the first of the ones who lose." - Ayrton Senna
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02-10-11 01:28 PM #14
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
against the sawx at yankee stadium hopefully
40 pitchers, ever, have an ERA+ of 130 or higher for their career. 15 have 140 or higher. 3 guys have 150 or higher - one is right at 150, the second place guy is at 154, and Mariano Rivera is at 205.
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02-10-11 01:35 PM #15
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02-10-11 03:17 PM #16
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.
Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.
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02-11-11 10:58 AM #17
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- May 2009
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- The Bronx
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
hopefully it will be a game that I'll be at
The real reason why the Yankees keep winning is cause the other team can't stop staring at the damn pinstripes
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02-11-11 11:11 AM #18
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- May 2004
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- Bath, NY
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
We have tickets to June 12th and 13th so I'll vote for either of those dates.
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02-11-11 02:42 PM #19
- Join Date
- Feb 2009
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
I'm wondering if he gets near it in Oakland or Anaheim late May/early June, will they find an excuse to sit him until the Yanks return home againt Boston on 6/7? My gut says no...
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02-13-11 11:45 AM #20
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- Aug 2007
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- Staten Island
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02-13-11 12:00 PM #21
- Join Date
- May 2009
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
depends on how close it is.
if he's, say, one or so away and there's just that last road game left before a homestand, there's probably little chance he wouldn't sit that game, whether he liked it or not.
if he's one or two away, but smack in the middle of a road trip or just beginning one, they'll just play it through.
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02-13-11 12:53 PM #22
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02-14-11 06:04 PM #23
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02-15-11 01:53 PM #24
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
It will happen on June 7th.
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02-15-11 01:57 PM #25
Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?
personally Im hoping for the Cincy Series, since Ill be roadtripping it to Cincy and would love to witness history during that series. But it would be a nice present for DJ to get it on his Bday/OTD vs COL too
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