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  1. #1
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    Win Prediction for 2011

    I am curious to see everyone's thoughts on expected win total for our heroes this season.

  2. #2
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanesq View Post
    I am curious to see everyone's thoughts on expected win total for our heroes this season.
    My thoughts are the Yankees end up at 85-77.

    I think our pitching is obviously thin and that we will start to show our age even more this season. A 10 loss decline would not be a shocker, especially with the Sox improving as we deteriorate.

  3. #3

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    91-71 2nd place in AL East. Win WC by 2 games

  4. #4
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    As presently constituted about 88-74. If that.

    I was taking a class on environmental isues and the teacher was saying about the rapid disappearance of fossil fuels that the common way of thinking is that some really smart people are going to find a solution before disaster strikes becuase that's the way we've always come to see it. That doesn't mean that there any smart guys actually working toward a solution or that anything of any value will come to pass before the deluge.

    The pertinence of that, to a much smaller degree of significance, is that we're all waiting for the fix, the trusty starter and sturdy backup fielders that are going to make 2011 all right, that always show up. Surveying the landscape it's becoming more and more obvious that Cashman can work till the veins explode in his temples and he won't make a silk purse out of our sow's ear. Cliff Lee was the plum, Carl Crawford the apple we didn't need and the rest of the fruit was pretty rotten. (I'm done with metaphors)

    The organization, with the Steinbrenners giving Cashman his marching orders, seems to be intent on building from within. Let us hope that Montero, Phelps and whatever else is brewing down there will do the trick, but it might be 2012 for that to happen. The best free agent starter left is Carl Pavano. There it is. Andruw Jones is 5 years beyond his expiration label and Soriano (whom I personally would gladly give up the 31st pick for) won't be of much value if there isn't an 8th inning lead to hold. The Red Sox made improvements, the Blue Jays played us very tough last year and even the O's are better. We're in the monster division we created and we may be it's victim this year.
    Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.

  5. #5

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Right now, 92-70. But we are still in January and while it doesn't look like there is much of an opportunity to help the team right now, whether it be through FA or trades you gotta believe that there will be some players available before July to improve this team.

  6. #6
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Bomber View Post
    As presently constituted about 88-74. If that.

    I was taking a class on environmental isues and the teacher was saying about the rapid disappearance of fossil fuels that the common way of thinking is that some really smart people are going to find a solution before disaster strikes becuase that's the way we've always come to see it. That doesn't mean that there any smart guys actually working toward a solution or that anything of any value will come to pass before the deluge.

    The pertinence of that, to a much smaller degree of significance, is that we're all waiting for the fix, the trusty starter and sturdy backup fielders that are going to make 2011 all right, that always show up. Surveying the landscape it's becoming more and more obvious that Cashman can work till the veins explode in his temples and he won't make a silk purse out of our sow's ear. Cliff Lee was the plum, Carl Crawford the apple we didn't need and the rest of the fruit was pretty rotten. (I'm done with metaphors)

    The organization, with the Steinbrenners giving Cashman his marching orders, seems to be intent on building from within. Let us hope that Montero, Phelps and whatever else is brewing down there will do the trick, but it might be 2012 for that to happen. The best free agent starter left is Carl Pavano. There it is. Andruw Jones is 5 years beyond his expiration label and Soriano (whom I personally would gladly give up the 31st pick for) won't be of much value if there isn't an 8th inning lead to hold. The Red Sox made improvements, the Blue Jays played us very tough last year and even the O's are better. We're in the monster division we created and we may be it's victim this year.
    Well put and thought out, but I disagree.

    We're returning CC, Hughes and AJ to the rotation. I'm confident CC gives us at least what we got last year, and in aggregate Hughes and AJ pitch better than in '10. I think Nova or another organizational arm is a safe bet to outproduce Vazquez' contribution from last year. So we're really focusing on Pettitte's 21 starts and his spot in the playoff rotation. Assuming we stick with our existing 40 man, it's probably Mitre. That's a signficant downgrade, but it will be partially offset IMHO by the aforementioned. And if an arm in the system takes off, you've got a homegrown upgrade or you have time to get a top of the rotation guy sometime between now and the trade deadline. We definitely have an issue with depth, but who doesn't. Lee would have been great (and I honestly would have preferred dealing for Haren last year over signing Lee this offseasn), but I think the concerns about the rotation are mildly overblown.

    I think Cashman will add another bullpen arm. I really don't see the pen being any worse than last season.

    Defensively, I hope Girardi sacks up and moves Gardner to CF and Granderson to LF. Moving Posada to DH and making Martin the primary C gives us a defensive upgrade there (Cervelli was terrible last year). Yes, we're a year older but our defense will probably equal last season's.

    Offensively, we've got several folks that I think can improve in '11. Jeter, A-Rod, Tex, Martin, Granderson... Swisher and Cano will be hard pressed to replicate last season, but again in aggregate I think we score more runs this year than we did last year.

    All that said, I think we'll see some nagging injuries given the ages of key players and as a result the Yankees shave a few wins... I'll go with 91 wins and the wildcard.

    But it's really not near as dire as some make it out to be.

  7. #7

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    I think we're probably looking at somewhere in the 90-92 win range and, if we can make a significant move around deadline time, I can see it bumping to the 93-95 range. I agree with a lot of what False1 has to say. Things aren't quite as bleak as they may appear to be.

  8. #8
    Win or else BroadwayBomber55's Avatar
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    93-69 win AL Wild Card by 3 games.
    "Losing is not my enemy, fear of losing is my enemy." - Tennis champion Rafael Nadal

  9. #9
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by pleasepassthesoup View Post
    I think we're probably looking at somewhere in the 90-92 win range and, if we can make a significant move around deadline time, I can see it bumping to the 93-95 range. I agree with a lot of what False1 has to say. Things aren't quite as bleak as they may appear to be.
    Are we not playing with a squad that is not as good as last year against a vastly improved Red Sox team and in the toughest division in baseball?

    Swisher and Cano will be hard pressed to duplicate their 2010 years. Jeter is on the decline as is AROD and Jorge. They will still be productive but I dont see them doing any better than their 2010 seasons. I also dont see where the pitching comes from. Pettitte threw to a 3.28 ERA and had 11 wins. Kerry Wood was solid out of the pen for us. Thats 14 wins that we will be lucky if we can regain 10 from their replacements. Sabathia and Hughes had 39 Wins between them, I think 35 is more likely this year as it will be tough for both to duplicate their career years in 2011, especially with an aging cast. Add those factors up with the Red sox improvements which are sure to steal a couple games from us and its easy to see how 95 wins turns into 85.

    Cashman had alot of work to do and didnt get it done. Carl Pavano wont be the fix for this team.
    I wish I could be as optimistic as you guys but I am trying to not wear Rose colored glasses.

  10. #10
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    95 and in the playoffs.

  11. #11

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Enough to make the playoffs + 11.


  12. #12

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Detroit and Chicago look to be improved. If the Twins re-sign Pavano they'll be good, too.

    88 wins and no playoffs for the second time in 4 years.
    "It is almost impossible to remember how tragic a place the world is when one is playing golf." -Robert Wilson Lynd



  13. #13

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    92 wc by 2 games
    always reasonable

  14. #14

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    111-51. Oh sorry I suppose I don't work for NESN and we're not talking about the Red Sox.

    In reality, I'll go with 95-67

  15. #15
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanesq View Post
    Are we not playing with a squad that is not as good as last year against a vastly improved Red Sox team and in the toughest division in baseball?

    Swisher and Cano will be hard pressed to duplicate their 2010 years. Jeter is on the decline as is AROD and Jorge. They will still be productive but I dont see them doing any better than their 2010 seasons. I also dont see where the pitching comes from. Pettitte threw to a 3.28 ERA and had 11 wins. Kerry Wood was solid out of the pen for us. Thats 14 wins that we will be lucky if we can regain 10 from their replacements. Sabathia and Hughes had 39 Wins between them, I think 35 is more likely this year as it will be tough for both to duplicate their career years in 2011, especially with an aging cast. Add those factors up with the Red sox improvements which are sure to steal a couple games from us and its easy to see how 95 wins turns into 85.

    Cashman had alot of work to do and didnt get it done. Carl Pavano wont be the fix for this team.
    I wish I could be as optimistic as you guys but I am trying to not wear Rose colored glasses.
    No, the '11 Yankees on paper are not vastly inferior to the '10 Yankees. And no, the '11 Sox on paper are not vastly superior to the '10 Sox. I think we'll shave a few wins and they'll add a few, but it's certainly not doom and gloom. See my above post...

    Pettitte gave us 21 great starts last year. AJ and Vazquez gave us 59 crappy ones. I expect a rebound from AJ (>100 ERA+) and I think Nova or some other darkhorse in the system can outproduce Vazquez' 80 ERA+. I also think Hughes continues to develop and shows moderate improvement this season. CC is CC. The downgrade from Pettitte to Mitre or some alternate solution should be at least partially offset by improved production from 1 through 4. And I think our offense will be better.

    The Sox added two big weapons in Gonzalez and Crawford, but lost two big ones (who had big years in '10) in Beltre and Martinez. They should get a bump from less time lost to injuries for key players, but will also be banking on Lester and Buccholz (in particular) replicating their output from last year. Buccholz is good, but I think he'll struggle to sustain what he did this year to put it mildly.

    Even ignoring that the Sox are pretty much set and the Yankees will almost certainly upgrade in the rotation before the playoff crunch, the gap between the two teams is not some insurmountable chasm. I'm guessing 91 wins for the Yanks, nailing the WC, and around 94 wins for the Sox.

  16. #16

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    As is, I'd say 89 wins and maybe WC. However, by the end of the season, I'd say we will be a 94 win team and probably WC.

  17. #17

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    I haven't been following all that closely, but my gut instinct is that this is a team that will come up just short of 90 wins and miss on the playoffs by a game or two, but it's January and there's a lot to play. I'm not standing by that guess, it's just my evaluation of how the team is constituted now.

  18. #18

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanesq View Post
    Are we not playing with a squad that is not as good as last year against a vastly improved Red Sox team and in the toughest division in baseball?

    Swisher and Cano will be hard pressed to duplicate their 2010 years. Jeter is on the decline as is AROD and Jorge. They will still be productive but I dont see them doing any better than their 2010 seasons. I also dont see where the pitching comes from. Pettitte threw to a 3.28 ERA and had 11 wins. Kerry Wood was solid out of the pen for us. Thats 14 wins that we will be lucky if we can regain 10 from their replacements. Sabathia and Hughes had 39 Wins between them, I think 35 is more likely this year as it will be tough for both to duplicate their career years in 2011, especially with an aging cast. Add those factors up with the Red sox improvements which are sure to steal a couple games from us and its easy to see how 95 wins turns into 85.

    Cashman had alot of work to do and didnt get it done. Carl Pavano wont be the fix for this team.
    I wish I could be as optimistic as you guys but I am trying to not wear Rose colored glasses.
    We won 95 last year despite taking the foot off the gas for the entirety of September. Boston's better, but Tampa's worse.

    I don't see why Swisher and Cano can't repeat what they did. Teixeira and Granderson will likely have better seasons. Posada wont be handling the rigors of catching so, if anything, he may actually improve a bit despite his age. Jeter is fairly likely for at least some bounce back and A-Rod is another year removed from his surgery. Additionally, Martin will improve the defense and will probably perform better than NJ/Kearns/Berkman/whoever.

    Wood was on the team for 2 months, one of which the team decided to tank, so that's not a huge loss. Sabathia will probably perform similarly to last year. Hughes and Burnett will probably improve over what they did last year. Nova can't do much worse than Vazquez.

    Losing Pettitte is a big loss, but he also missed a lot of time last year. We aren't as good as last year, but it's not by as much as you seem to think and while one rival got better, the other got significantly worse and the rest of the AL isn't that scary.

  19. #19
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by pleasepassthesoup View Post

    Wood was on the team for 2 months, one of which the team decided to tank, so that's not a huge loss. Sabathia will probably perform similarly to last year. Hughes and Burnett will probably improve over what they did last year. Nova can't do much worse than Vazquez.

    Losing Pettitte is a big loss, but he also missed a lot of time last year. We aren't as good as last year, but it's not by as much as you seem to think and while one rival got better, the other got significantly worse and the rest of the AL isn't that scary.
    Burnett was as bad as Vazquez, both won 10 games with ERAs over 5.25. Hughes won 18 games, if he improves on that I will be shocked. In fact I would be thrilled if he wins 17. Believe it or not, Nova is probably the 3rd best starter we have and I can almost assure you he will do better than Vazquez.

  20. #20

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanesq View Post
    Burnett was as bad as Vazquez, both won 10 games with ERAs over 5.25. Hughes won 18 games, if he improves on that I will be shocked. In fact I would be thrilled if he wins 17. Believe it or not, Nova is probably the 3rd best starter we have and I can almost assure you he will do better than Vazquez.
    Win total by a specific pitcher is a useless stat. It's wins by the team that matter. It doesn't matter which pitcher they're assigned to. I'm referring to their actual performance. Phil had a solid season last year as a 24 year old. He's likely to improve this season as a 25 year old with a full season under his belt. Also, I understand how bad Burnett was last year, but that doesn't change the fact that he probably wont be as bad this year, even if he isn't as good as he was in '09.

  21. #21
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    93-95 wins, AL WC winner.
    But give me back Pettitte and/or an improvement in the rotation and I'm going 97-99 and the AL East.
    I used to think I was crazy... Now I am sure of it..

  22. #22
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    I'll take 96-66; winning the East by 2 games over the Sox.
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  23. #23

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Blazer View Post
    Detroit and Chicago look to be improved. If the Twins re-sign Pavano they'll be good, too.

    88 wins and no playoffs for the second time in 4 years.

    Bumping my prediction up to 91 wins and some hope for the playoffs.
    "It is almost impossible to remember how tragic a place the world is when one is playing golf." -Robert Wilson Lynd



  24. #24
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    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    98-64, win the east by 1-2 games. This team will perform closer to the level of the 2009 Yankees than last years team.

  25. #25

    Re: Win Prediction for 2011

    Low 90's, I think.

    The rotation sucks beyond CC.

    As to the Sox, Buccholz could regress to a mid 3's ERA and that's still very, very good.

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