Did we make the right choice? [Austin Jackson vs. Curtis Granderson]

[False1]

I disagree. Forget about elite, I'll settle for competent. There's nothing productive about a strikeout. Putting the ball in play creates opportunities. It isn't just his 28.5% K-rate, its his inability to cut down on his swing to get a much needed sac fly to drive in a run or ground a ball to the right side to move a runner over. Outs aren't necessarily a bad thing.

He's the ultimate poster child for the all-or-nothing Yankee 2012 offense.

Why do those things when he can drive them in without outs?

On 3rd, <2 outs: .273 / .325 / .591 with 7 sac flies versus 6 Ks, and roughly 1 in 3 outs resulting coming by way of a sac fly
On 3rd, 2 outs: .265 / .359 / .500

Was he productive last year with his 24.5% K rate?

[bomber999]

Can we just simplify life and go ahead and say "no"?

[Benefactor]

Why do those things when he can drive them in without outs?

On 3rd, <2 outs: .273 / .325 / .591 with 7 sac flies versus 6 Ks, and roughly 1 in 3 outs resulting coming by way of a sac fly
On 3rd, 2 outs: .265 / .359 / .500

Was he productive last year with his 24.5% K rate?

Because he's not. His second half numbers are foul... .212/.278/.480. His postseason numbers are worse... .125 (3-for-27) in seven postseason games, with one homer, three walks and a team-high 14 strikeouts.

He's back to his usual self against LHP .218/.304/.458/.762 with a 31.9% K-rate.

Curtis after 0-1 .195/.254/.431/.685 21 BB 121 K's
Curtis after 0-2 .103/.116/.294/.410 2 BB 65 K's
Curtis after 1-2 .158/.195/.330/.525 10 BB 107 K's
Curtis after 2-2 .188/.301/.398./.699 28 BB 97 K's
Late & close .146/.274/.191/.465 sOPS 39 (SSS warning - 107 PA's)

(Granted, most players have less than stellar numbers when a pitcher gets ahead in the count, and I don't take much stock in 0-2 and 1-2 stats, but the K's are hard to ignore.)

Get ahead in the count and he'll chase all day long. And don't ya know, pitchers have figured that out. His walks went from 50 in the first half of the season to 25 in the second. He's totally lost at the plate right now.

and to steal a quote from Arodera, what does last year's production have to do with the price of tea in china? He was more productive last year because he had a higher BB% (12.3) which led to a much higher OBP, higher BABIP (.295), which means he was slightly luckier and hit LHP at a .272/.347/.597/.944 clip.

Now, I'm not saying he won't turn it around and hopefully he does, but I hope Girardi has a backup plan.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

I'm not trying to nitpick, I honestly don't get it. Why would you not just compare the 44 singles (which includes 29 less outs) to the 15 HR? Isn't the value of avoiding that out included in the run expectancy of the single? I think you're double counting it.

Nope. The 0.465 runs per single would be the expected average change in run expectancy from the base state that the batter came up to, to the base state (and any runs driven in) after the single. Since no out was made, it does not factor into the run value here.

But in this hypothetical, you have to take it a step further and look at what the average negative value of an out would be for the 29 extra times he reached base, since we are not just adding extra PA for the 29 extra hits, but actually replacing outs with hits.

If you have an updated linear weights value from the one I am using, I would be happy to run the numbers using those, but nothing I have read makes me think they have changed significantly.

I also think assuming zero outs for your calculation skews it. I'd use one as the assumed average # of outs.

You can use 0 outs, 1 out, 2 outs and any base state and it's not going to change the basic point that if you are turning 15 HR and 29 outs into singles, you have to credit the 24 singles and 29 fewer outs as well as debit the 15 HR. To do otherwise is to argue that getting on base and avoiding outs is meaningless http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1091223

You yourself calculated your hypothetical triple slash to a 123 OPS+. His OPS+ last season which was heavy on power and lower on hits than your example had an OPS+ of 142.

I am only arguing that 44 singles and 29 fewer outs is more valuable than 15 HR. 2011 Granderson is definitely more valuable than hypothetical 2012 Granderson.
EDIT: I see the source for some of the confusion. I quoted your entire post on the last page when I didn't mean to include the part about you wishing he would just hit more like 2011 instead.

[Sparky]

Can we just simplify life and go ahead and say "no"?

I agree . . no.

BTW - scanning thru the last several pages of posts, all of the discussion is about hitting; what about defense? In last night's ALCS game 3, after Granderson got a bad break on the ball that went over his head and allowed what became the winning run to score, one of the announcers said that a prime reason he was traded was his less-than-stellar defensive skills. Plus the fact that he's not great on base in spite of his speed. Add Jackson's youth and lower cost and the answer is . . no.

[THEBOSS84]

Ironically, lost in the resurrection of this thread is the fact that Coke has two saves in this series.

[awy]

that's because valverde lol

[Hitman23]

Can we just simplify life and go ahead and say "no"?

We could, but problem is just a few weeks ago everyone wasy saying yeah. And before that no. Then I believe it was yeah again. This thread will continue to resurface and be bi-polar until Granderson is either off this team or Austin Jackson somehow becomes obsolete.

[azzurribaggio]

When I started this thread my greatest fear was that we let one get away for someone who was established at the time but with time will eventually start going down hill.
I mean the guy had a great season (43 jacks), but as we Yankee fans know our real season starts in October and you are really measured based on what you do now (are you listening Mark Texiera?)
Who knows two years from we might say yes again....but Grandyman looks like crap right now

[RenoHightower]

When I started this thread my greatest fear was that we let one get away for someone who was established at the time but with time will eventually start going down hill.
I mean the guy had a great season (43 jacks), but as we Yankee fans know our real season starts in October and you are really measured based on what you do now (are you listening Mark Texiera?)
Who knows two years from we might say yes again....but Grandyman looks like crap right now

I almost wish that this team would lose for a few years so that this insane mentality that performance only counts in the playoffs would disappear. It's silly and counterproductive.

[sweet_lou_14]

I almost wish that this team would lose for a few years so that this insane mentality that performance only counts in the playoffs would disappear. It's silly and counterproductive.

That's a mentality mutually reinforced by the team and its fans.

You don't see banners flying in Yankee Stadium for all the division titles they've won.

[Dog Named Fred]

The Detroit Free Press weighs in on the trade and declares the Tigers the winners of the "lopsided" deal: Link

[Hitman23]

I almost wish that this team would lose for a few years so that this insane mentality that performance only counts in the playoffs would disappear. It's silly and counterproductive.

While I agree with the outcome you hope for, I do not want them to lose for any extended period of time. It's more fun watching October baseball every year. Regardless of how far they get.

[RenoHightower]

While I agree with the outcome you hope for, I do not want them to lose for any extended period of time. It's more fun watching October baseball every year. Regardless of how far they get.

I agree, but it gets tiresome when spoiled fans call for everyone's head every time the team doesn't win a championship.

[ArodEra]

You're rubbing salt in the wound, aren't you, AJax...

[BobLoblaw]

...No.

[ArodEra]

$15M club option vs. $500,000

[matt2351]

I think it is fair to say that this is yet another Cashman blunder, but people on this site will continue to defend him.

[yanksftw]

yea i don't wanna hear ppl defend this trade ever again

another talent misevaluation by Cashman

montero's gonna pan out too just wait

[spikeowenfan]

there's a huge difference between judging a trade and judging the GM's decision.

[sweet_lou_14]

I think it is fair to say that this is yet another Cashman blunder, but people on this site will continue to defend him.

Granderson made the Yankees better in the short term (2010 and 2011). Had the Yankees won a championship either of those years, or this year, we'd call it a wash and move on. But that didn't happen and the final analysis will look at this as a bad trade with no payoff.

[SLURPEE]

@ the title.

It's funny looking back now.

[matt2351]

Granderson made the Yankees better in the short term (2010 and 2011). Had the Yankees won a championship either of those years, or this year, we'd call it a wash and move on. But that didn't happen and the final analysis will look at this as a bad trade with no payoff.

You can't make trades for two years versus many years. It is the kind of problematic decision making that led to the 1980s and early 90s Yankees.

[ArodEra]

[ArodEra]

Here's a litmus test:

How excited or disappointed would you be if we declined the club option on Granderson and picked up AJax (hypothetically, of course) to replace him in CF?