Yu Darvish- Posting fee?

[Yankee Tripper]

sorry, I meant to hit the edit button but I pressed the quote button by accident.

1) No luxury tax
2) No loss of a first round draft pick as compensation to sign a comparable pitcher
3) He's much younger than Sabathia or other comparable Free Agents
4) Even if it's against NPB hitters, despite what you think of them, pitching in a professional league is more experience than whatever a young Latin American kid has.

1 - I get that but $75 million is still $75 millinion. It's not chump change and it also happens to be more than the total payroll for 14 MLB clubs this year.

2 - True it does have this plus. But your are really only giving up one lottery ticket in the late first round hopefully.

3 - That cuts both ways. It can be good and bad. depending on the ages. 21 works in his favor but also against in some ways. If he was 24 it might even look better as you may have by passed his growing pains.

4 - Yes I give him credit for that but it comes back to point 1, you can buy an awful lot of quality young arms in the dominican, venezuela and other latin AM countries for $75M and you only need to be right on one or two to come out way ahead.

Lastly the Yanks didn't want to go 6 years $138M on Santana supposedly, why would they go 6 year $125M on Darvish? (assuming $75M is posting and he signs Dice-K like 6 year $50M).

[THEBOSS84]

sorry, I meant to hit the edit button but I pressed the quote button by accident.

1) No luxury tax
2) No loss of a first round draft pick as compensation to sign a comparable pitcher
3) He's much younger than Sabathia or other comparable Free Agents
4) Even if it's against NPB hitters, despite what you think of them, pitching in a professional league is more experience than whatever a young Latin American kid has (none).

1. The Yanks have potentially $80M coming off the payroll this offseason. They may be slightly into the luxury tax bracket if at all. Assuming they do have to pay luxury tax on CC, it's still a better investment paying slightly more for CC than paying all this money for an unknown.

2. The loss of the pick is not as significant as you may think considering we will have opportunities to get it back with the following players potentially leaving - Abreu, Farnsworth, Moose.

3. Yu is younger but that means nothing considering again, we know what we are getting more or less with CC

[Metroidman]

NPB is now between AA and AAA?

This is why you can't have any kind of productive discussion about Japanese players because everyone has their own opinions.

Have you seen Igawa in AAA? He had better stats in NBP. Japanese dont have a lot if any patient hitters. They swing at EVERYTHIG. Even the great ones that are here dont have great OBP. Matsui is the only one that stands out in terms of that.

[jeterdaman]

I think we should stay away. One big reason is then I can't slam my Red Sox fan friends about their $100 million Japanese pitcher

[yankeeman61]

The question is, why spend $75M + a contract of say around $60M on Yu (an unproven MLB pitcher), when you can spend less on CC Sabathia? It doesn't add up.

Enter the voice of reason.

[Prison Mike]

Below $50M. If he's an ace, you've probably paid $125M for him- which is no bargain. If he's a bust, you've made a crippling mistake.

Quite simply, the risk isn't worth the reward.

[webassign]

Again, you guys keep harping about the $75 million when it's just pure speculation at this point.

1 - I get that but $75 million is still $75 millinion. It's not chump change and it also happens to be more than the total payroll for 14 MLB clubs this year.

Well, if the Yankees have the resources to do both (bid for Darvish and invest in young Latin arms), who are you to complain? We do have about $80 million coming off the books after this year. All of it isn't going into a bid for Darvish.

2 - True it does have this plus. But your are really only giving up one lottery ticket in the late first round hopefully.

A first round pick is very important, especially in baseball where signability comes into play for highly touted prospects. The worst teams can't just simply draft the best player if they're gonna have trouble signing him.

3 - That cuts both ways. It can be good and bad. depending on the ages. 21 works in his favor but also against in some ways. If he was 24 it might even look better as you may have by passed his growing pains.

He's only gotten better every year.

4 - Yes I give him credit for that but it comes back to point 1, you can buy an awful lot of quality young arms in the dominican, venezuela and other latin AM countries for $75M and you only need to be right on one or two to come out way ahead.

But how long are you gonna have to wait for that development to happen? People just don't become great pitchers overnight.

Lastly the Yanks didn't want to go 6 years $138M on Santana supposedly, why would they go 6 year $125M on Darvish? (assuming $75M is posting and he signs Dice-K like 6 year $50M).

Because it doesn't count against the luxury tax. Are you really sure you understand that? lol

1. The Yanks have potentially $80M coming off the payroll this offseason. They may be slightly into the luxury tax bracket if at all. Assuming they do have to pay luxury tax on CC, it's still a better investment paying slightly more for CC than paying all this money for an unknown.

You're overlooking the fact that we're probably gonna go after a guy like Texiera to replace Giambi next year. A big time ace isn't the only thing that's gonna be adding to the payroll.

2. The loss of the pick is not as significant as you may think considering we will have opportunities to get it back with the following players potentially leaving - Abreu, Farnsworth, Moose.

True, but that will depend on which team any of them sign with. If it's one of the 15 worst teams, then we only get the sandwich pick. Having that first round pick is just as important as getting a sandwich pick.

3. Yu is younger but that means nothing considering again, we know what we are getting more or less with CC

You keep mentioning C.C., but he's gonna be 28 this off season, and assuming he's gonna command about a 6-7 year contract, do you really want to know what a 34-35 Sabathia will be like? I know C.C. will be only one of many options in the upcoming seasons, but you have to think about the entire life of the contract. Assume Darvish were to be posted tomorrow. He's 21 years old, and giving him a 6-7 year contract would lock him up during his best years.

I think we should stay away. One big reason is then I can't slam my Red Sox fan friends about their $100 million Japanese pitcher

Well their $100 million Japanese pitcher led them to a World Series Championship and is now a dependable arm in their rotation.

[In Mo I Trust]

Well their $100 million Japanese pitcher led them to a World Series Championship and is now a dependable arm in their rotation.

By led them to a World Series Championship and is now a dependable arm, do you mean "Was terrible down the stretch, in the playoffs, and has severe control issues (which were not evident in Japan)"?

[webassign]

By led them to a World Series Championship and is now a dependable arm, do you mean "Was terrible down the stretch, in the playoffs, and has severe control issues (which were not evident in Japan)"?

It was his first year. I don't know what you want me to say. Surely you guys don't expect anyone coming to a new league to not have any kind of adjustment period, do you? It doesn't work both ways here. He looks like he's off to a good start this year anyway. What other pitcher would the Red Sox have used last year to fill Matsuzaka's void?

This thread isn't even about Matsuzaka.

[ppa79]

Don't want him, spend the money on CC.

[bigjf]

If the Yanks want to spend the money to talk to him, that's their decision. It doesn't impact the luxury tax (and there will be no tax for the next few years anyway with the new stadium), so I don't have a problem with it. But I wouldn't hold any kind of expectations with all that hype. It sounds like way too much to live up to for someone who hasn't pitched in the states.

Still, you can never have too much pitching, even if you sometimes get burned by guys like Igawa (who is still tradeable) and Pavano. I was very disappointed when the Yanks lost out on Matsuzaka, but I wouldn't mind posting for a 21-year old pitcher if they are that impressed with him.

[TheInfallibleOne]

We are the New York Yankees for a reason. Someone has to shell out big bucks and not even care, and I'll be damned if we let that reputation carry over to the Red Sox or Mets.

So they say 75 million ought to do it? Cool. Lets blow everyone out of the water, and offer $96,001,996.00 and call it the start of a new dynasty. Finish the contract with 6 years, 50 million.

It wont impact luxury tax anyway, we can leave the kid in AAA before calling him up to the majors so there's little pressure to come in and dominate immediately, and then start reaping the benefits.

Just for fun, get CC too

[Hobbes40]

My 2 cents:

1) The posting fees are definitely ridiculous, and I really wish they would change the system. At least have an open bidding system or something, now teams are just blindly throwing out as much money as they're willing to spend.

2) Just because our Japanese pitcher is a failure doesn't mean that they're all going to be bad here. I think we should limit our expectations but we should also still keep an open mind about them.

3) Rather than trying to place Japanese baseball as between AAA and MLB or between AA and AAA, we should just accept it as a different game; I'm not exactly sure what the exact differences are, but I know that there are several important ones. I think the best illustration of this is that while there are some Japanese stars who absolutely flounder here, there are also average-good players who become stars (or at least as good as they were in Japan) here. Best example is Okajima.

4) For all the criticism Matsuzaka is taking here, I would take him right now at the price he was given. There is definitely an adjustment period and while I don't think he's as good as his stats are now, I also think he's better than what his stats were last year. The posting fee he (or his team really, he doesn't see that money) got was ridiculous so I don't blame Cashman for missing out on him, but he could really shore up our rotation right now.

[Ericas367]

he better be better than...Kei Igawa..but then again little league pitchers are better than Kei lol

[rodney27nyg]

[quote=webassign]NPB is now between AA and AAA?

This is why you can't have any kind of productive discussion about Japanese players because everyone has their own opinions.[/quote]


DAMN THEM!

[Abe Frohman]

This guy looks like a true beast. look him up on youtube ... rock star persona, power pitcher, breath taking delivery, not even in his prime. the big question is, how will it translate to the Bigs ? id take the gamble though, this kid looks like the goods.

[MissingBillyMartin]

I think we should stay away. One big reason is then I can't slam my Red Sox fan friends about their $100 million Japanese pitcher

We paid a quarter of that for one year Roger Roids who was worse than Matsuzaka last year. Right now Matsuzaka is 7-0 with 2.15 ERA. What are you making fun of?

[Serge]

If the Yankees have the money to spend...why not?

[O'Neill's 3b + E]

We paid a quarter of that for one year Roger Roids who was worse than Matsuzaka last year. Right now Matsuzaka is 7-0 with 2.15 ERA. What are you making fun of?

I think the Red Sox and their fans should be happy about Matsuzaka, that said, there's no freaking way he should have an ERA of 2.15. Given his walk rate, his batting average against and eveything else he really should be around 4.00. Still very good, but no where near as good as he looks now.

[cyhughes22]

I think the Red Sox and their fans should be happy about Matsuzaka, that said, there's no freaking way he should have an ERA of 2.15. Given his walk rate, his batting average against and eveything else he really should be around 4.00. Still very good, but no where near as good as he looks now.

And let's remember, he looked very good early last year too. Wait until after the all star break that ERA will be right back around 4.

[MissingBillyMartin]

I think the Red Sox and their fans should be happy about Matsuzaka, that said, there's no freaking way he should have an ERA of 2.15. Given his walk rate, his batting average against and eveything else he really should be around 4.00. Still very good, but no where near as good as he looks now.

He is still pitching much better than Wang (who has an insanely low BABIP every for a sinkerball pitcher) and Pettitte. I am sorry but there is no way you convince me the Yankees would not have been better off paying that money and getting Matsuzaka. Especially the way Cashman spends money like a Courtney Love in a Mexican Pharmacy.

[27IsNext]

He is still pitching much better than Wang (who has an insanely low BABIP every for a sinkerball pitcher) and Pettitte. I am sorry but there is no way you convince me the Yankees would not have been better off paying that money and getting Matsuzaka. Especially the way Cashman spends money like a Courtney Love in a Mexican Pharmacy.

Much better than Wang? I don't think so. He may be one day, but he has yet to prove that. Those BB's are going to catch up to him and it's going to be ugly.

[wang+cano=future]

When can we realistically expect Darvish to be posted? After this season? After the next?

[YASS]

When can we realistically expect Darvish to be posted? After this season? After the next?

So far he says he wants to stay in Japan. They won't post him if he doesn't want to play in the major leagues.

And remember all the handwringing a couple of years ago about how all the best talent is leaving Japan? I don't think he'll be posted anytime soon.

[Casius]

He is still pitching much better than Wang (who has an insanely low BABIP every for a sinkerball pitcher) and Pettitte.

Someone hasn't done their research...

.262 BABIP for Wang
.236 BABIP for Matsuzaka

That said, BABIP is really misused. It can indicate some things, but it shouldn't really be used as a reliable correlative tool for "luck" as many call it.

Anybody who thinks Matsuzaka is a fraction of what his ERA says this year is delusional. The guy doesn't just have a mediocre BB rate, not a bad one, but a horrific one. GB rate is pretty awful too. Even his strikeout rate, while decent, isn't anything special.