Yu Darvish- Posting fee?

[primetime714]

So I know its still early in the year, but there has been a lot of talk about Yu Darvish lately and how much the posting fee could reach for the 21 year old phenom from Japan who most think is already better than Dice-K. Right now $75M is the number thrown out there for Darvish.

What does everyone think is reasonable for Darvish?

[CallOfTheCrow]

Since I know next to nothing about him, I don't know. However, $75M just to negotiate with any player is absurd.

[Ynkcpt23]

Since I know next to nothing about him, I don't know. However, $75M just to negotiate with any player is absurd.

I have to agree with you. I thought the Dice-K posting was beyond ridiculous. Especially when the Sox posted 20 mil more than anyone else.

All that I know about him was the article on line--I guess it was ESPN.com, he seems like a really solid prospect, but the opportunity to actually sign him might not happen for another 3-4 years. And can you imagine what the posting fee could be by then? The way the Japanese system works is they have the rights for a certain number of years and the only way you might have access to negotiate is if you agree to send them compensatory money...and this one might be prohibitive. In the article he mentions through his agent how much he appreciated NY and Boston. Gee, wonder what genius might be advising him?...

[YanksFan1992]

Well "reasonably" I think it should be free.

However I went with 50-59 Million.

[webassign]

Depends when he's posted. If it was right now, I wouldn't hesitate to drop $80 million. As he gets older, I wouldn't pay as much.

One thing I will say is that Darvish is the real deal. Definitely better than Daisuke and infinitely better than the bum in my avatar. During last year's Japan Series, he pitched two complete games, only gave up one run, and had like 24 K's.

[ShaneTravis]

If there is a guy to over pay for this is it.

Posting fee does not count toward lux tax. Give them 70 million and charge an extra 50 cents for the room temp buds next season.

[CallOfTheCrow]

If there is a guy to over pay for this is it.

Posting fee does not count toward lux tax. Give them 70 million and charge an extra 50 cents for the room temp buds next season.

Maybe not but it's still $70 Million. That's not chump change, not even to the Yankees.

[ShaneTravis]

Maybe not but it's still $70 Million. That's not chump change, not even to the Yankees.

With the new stadium and breaks that it brings plus the over 4 million is ticket sales this year and all the revenue streams.....yada yada.

I am a stickler for lowering payroll but these deals actually have low risk. Paying 123 or 126 million for a pitcher is (Zito,Santana,Hampton,Darren D,Nomo,Brown...) crazy. Here's why: up front money is a one time hit. It's those long term big money deals that limit you in long run.

Yu is better than Dice K or any other pitcher out of that part of the world in the last 10 years.

[Toaderly]

Much less than $50 mil. Personally, I think every Japanese big league pitcher should have to throw BP to nine of the best hitters in MLB before any team shelves up one single nickel.

[Casius]

Yu is better than Dice K or any other pitcher out of that part of the world in the last 10 years.

Every Japanese pitcher that has come over has been hyped as better than the last. Reserve some judgement please.

From video, I'm none too impressed with his breaking stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts with it against NPB hitters, but I don't think it'll hold up as well in the majors. His velocity varies depending on who you ask and what radar guns you trust, but nobody really has him topping out at above 94. Even for that, I'm very skeptical considering every Japanese pitcher's velocity has been inflated by at least a couple of MPH. (In Irabu's case, 7-8 MPH.)

It seems like the recent hype regarding this has partly been driven by the belief the Matsuzaka had his first shaky year, but now is much better (thus somehow validating some of his hype). Get ready for regression, because you can't get more lucky than he has. Good god, BB/9 at nearly 6, and GB rate at 30%.

[rodney27nyg]

Yu Darvish:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhlzij7ifpM

[Yankees1962]

Yu is better than Dice K or any other pitcher out of that part of the world in the last 10 years.

How do you know that?

[ShaneTravis]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...yhoo&type=lgns

Here's a nice recap of Yu. With bites from Valentine, Tak Kojima (helped forge the relationship between Yanks and Fighters) and former MLB players assesment on Yu.

Here is a running blog on Yu.

http://yudarvish.blogspot.com/

[effdamets]

Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa...

Haven't we learned anything about Japanese pitching in the last 10 years?

Open letter to the Yankees, regarding Japanese pitchers:

Dear Yankees Decision Makers:

Stay the f*ck away from posting anything for Japanese pitchers.
You guys are 2 for 2 in sh*tting the bed on this one.
Dummies! Learn from your mistakes!

Thank you.
Mr. Disgruntled

[THEBOSS84]

Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa...

Haven't we learned anything about Japanese pitching in the last 10 years?

Open letter to the Yankees, regarding Japanese pitchers:

Dear Yankees Decision Makers:

Stay the f*ck away from posting anything for Japanese pitchers.
You guys are 2 for 2 in sh*tting the bed on this one.
Dummies! Learn from your mistakes!

Thank you.
Mr. Disgruntled

Yeah I don't care if he "can" be better than Dice-k. Let's let another team test him out for that kind of money.

[swityak11]

What I think is reasonable is much less than 50m. What I think his posting fee will actually be is in the neighborhood of 70m.

[THEBOSS84]

Something positive is that the Mets (Santana) and the Sox (Dice-K's posting fee plus contract they will owe Beckett shortly) will probably not take place in a potential bidding.

[ShaneTravis]

Unlike Dice K, Darvish has given zero indication he is going to leave Japan.

He also has 7 or so years left to be declared a free agent.

As long as we are posting a prediction I say he posts for 76 million dollars and signs a contract with the NY Yankees for a 7 year 55 million contract. He is in the starting rotation in 2009.

Just throwing it out there.

[Yankee Tripper]

I'd rather the yanks take 1/3 of what they'd bid on a posting fee for Darvish and sink into latin american scouting and bonuses. We'd get way more bang for our buck.

[THEBOSS84]

I'd rather the yanks take 1/3 of what they'd bid on a posting fee for Darvish and sink into latin american scouting and bonuses. We'd get way more bang for our buck.

Yeah can you imagine spening $25M this year and next on IFA instead of this bozo?

This year and next year's crops are supposed to be excellent.

[webassign]

Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa... Whoa...

Haven't we learned anything about Japanese pitching in the last 10 years?

Open letter to the Yankees, regarding Japanese pitchers:

Dear Yankees Decision Makers:

Stay the f*ck away from posting anything for Japanese pitchers.
You guys are 2 for 2 in sh*tting the bed on this one.
Dummies! Learn from your mistakes!

Thank you.
Mr. Disgruntled

This is the kind of blind ignorance that bothers me. Irabu is the only real dud. I don't know what you expected with Igawa. No one was hyping him to be an ace, so he doesn't really even count. Irabu and Darvish have also very different body types too. Darvish is tall and lean (6'5") and only 21 years old.

Every Japanese pitcher that has come over has been hyped as better than the last. Reserve some judgement please.

From video, I'm none too impressed with his breaking stuff. He gets a lot of strikeouts with it against NPB hitters, but I don't think it'll hold up as well in the majors. His velocity varies depending on who you ask and what radar guns you trust, but nobody really has him topping out at above 94. Even for that, I'm very skeptical considering every Japanese pitcher's velocity has been inflated by at least a couple of MPH. (In Irabu's case, 7-8 MPH.)

It seems like the recent hype regarding this has partly been driven by the belief the Matsuzaka had his first shaky year, but now is much better (thus somehow validating some of his hype). Get ready for regression, because you can't get more lucky than he has. Good god, BB/9 at nearly 6, and GB rate at 30%.

What year were those youtube videos from? He's gotten much better every year. You haven't seen much of his breaking stuff if you're "not too impressed" with it.

What do Matusuzaka's stats have to do with Darvish? Darvish is more of a power pitcher that strikes batters out.

[THEBOSS84]

This is the kind of blind ignorance that bothers me. Irabu is the only real dud. I don't know what you expected with Igawa. No one was hyping him to be an ace, so he doesn't really even count. Irabu and Darvish have also very different body types too. Darvish is tall and lean (6'5") and only 21 years old.

The fact that you don't count Igawa as a dud sounds like some blind ignorance to me. The Yankees didn't spend $46M thinking they were going to get a disgusting imitation of a pitcher.

[webassign]

The fact that you don't count Igawa as a dud sounds like some blind ignorance to me. The Yankees didn't spend $46M thinking they were going to get a disgusting imitation of a pitcher.

Igawa is a dud, but I was talking about pre-season expectations. Cashman kept hammering home their intention of him being a "back of the rotation" guy. No one expected him to be an ace like Irabu or Matsuzaka. Sorry for any confusion.

You know, sooner or later, there WILL be a great pitcher from Japan who will live up to expectations. I'm just getting tired of all of this automatic doubt out of anyone from Japan.

Don't think that the Yankees haven't started doing their homework after the Igawa disaster. Darvish is the real deal.

[R.V.47]

Igawa is a dud, but I was talking about pre-season expectations. Cashman kept hammering home their intention of him being a "back of the rotation" guy. No one expected him to be an ace like Irabu or Matsuzaka. Sorry for any confusion.

You know, sooner or later, there WILL be a great pitcher from Japan who will live up to expectations. I'm just getting tired of all of this automatic doubt out of anyone from Japan.

Don't think that the Yankees haven't started doing their homework after the Igawa disaster. Darvish is the real deal.

You just cant tell though and Id rather spend money on a FA who has at least faced MLB hitters before.

[effdamets]

.....a disgusting imitation of a pitcher.

Igawa is this good? Fooled me!