Yu Darvish- Posting fee?

[Metroidman]

If you give me a choice, Darvish or (CC, Sheets, or Tex), I think I would take those 3 guys. 75 mil can easily pay for those 3.

That 75mil turns into 140mil with the lux tax....

[ppa79]

That 75mil turns into 140mil with the lux tax....

Not really. You are only taxed on the amount you are over the limit. The limit next year is 166. I think we would just be barely over the limit if we signed all 3 and let all of our free agents go.

[webassign]

If you give me a choice, Darvish or (CC, Sheets, or Tex), I think I would take those 3 guys. 75 mil can easily pay for those 3.

have fun paying 75 million for the next 7 years

[Metroidman]

Yeah thats the thing

75 mil one time fee and then we can sign him for 10mil a year

That still gives us money for CC. I'd do that in a heartbeat but I dont think hes' getting posted.

[ppa79]

have fun paying 75 million for the next 7 years

I will, along with all the games we'll win because of them.

Better than watching paying somone to pitch in AAA for the next 7 years. At least he'll give Igawa some company.

[ppa79]

Yeah thats the thing

75 mil one time fee and then we can sign him for 10mil a year

That still gives us money for CC. I'd do that in a heartbeat but I dont think hes' getting posted.

You don't even know how good he is. What if he is mediocre or worse? We have some premium talent that are free agents who are in their prime that are already battled tested in the major leagues. I think its better to spend the money on those guys.

[Metroidman]

Are you telling me you wouldn't want Matz on your team? Just because we got Igawa, a guy with no ability doesn't mean we should pass on Darvish who is a 21 year old with great ability.

[ppa79]

Are you telling me you wouldn't want Matz on your team? Just because we got Igawa, a guy with no ability doesn't mean we should pass on Darvish who is a 21 year old with great ability.

If Matz was coming out now, I would rather take CC and Sheets before I take Matz. However, when Matz was posted the best free agent pitcher was Barry Zito. We got 2 premium pitchers in their prime who are going to be free agents, and you would rather go give that money to a 21 year old who none of us have a clue how he'll perform in the majors.

[CallOfTheCrow]

Id be all for getting Darvish but for a 75M posting fee + contract? No. If given the choice of getting Sabathia or Darvish for the same money...(assuming it's a mega contract) I'd rather go with Sabathia.

[webassign]

Better than watching paying somone to pitch in AAA for the next 7 years. At least he'll give Igawa some company.

You don't even know how good he is.

No my friend, YOU are the one who doesn't know how good he is. This is exactly what I just said before. You guys got burned on Igawa and suddenly everyone out of Japan is a bum and not worth taking a chance on.

Anyway, this discussion is moot because he's not getting posted this year, nor anytime soon for that matter. There's no point in making Sabathia, Sheets, or Texiera arguments because Darvish isn't coming to play here any time soon. Hell, he might even end up being teammates with one or more of those guys.

[kan_t]

You don't even know how good he is. What if he is mediocre or worse? We have some premium talent that are free agents who are in their prime that are already battled tested in the major leagues. I think its better to spend the money on those guys.

Actually I watch him pitch a lots. He is at least as good as Matz.

[ppa79]

No my friend, YOU are the one who doesn't know how good he is. This is exactly what I just said before.

I forgot what major league team are you a scout for? Because you saw him on TV a couple of times doesn't make you an expert.

You guys got burned on Igawa and suddenly everyone out of Japan is a bum and not worth taking a chance on.

Its not worth taking a chance when you got to pay a posting fee that is 20+ million and then give him a contract that is worth 10 mil a year. When he hasn't even thrown a single major league pitch.

Burned on Igawa, Irabu, Maeda.

Even Hideki Matsui hasn't been as good as he was in Japan. He was amazing there, here he is a above average player with horrible defense. Lets not even get into Kaz Matsui how much of a disappointment he has been.

What about Fukudome? Big star there who put up big numbers, but pretty average here.

Only Matsuzaka and Ichiro have been good as advertised.

Anyway, this discussion is moot because he's not getting posted this year, nor anytime soon for that matter. There's no point in making Sabathia, Sheets, or Texiera arguments because Darvish isn't coming to play here any time soon. Hell, he might even end up being teammates with one or more of those guys.

If the Yanks are smart what should they do is instead of overpaying for professional Japanese players who dominate inferior competition, sign them as amateurs like international free agents once they graduate HS and let them develop in the US with other minorleaguers. If they are good enough to be major leaguers then they will show it in the minors and you get them for cheap.

[ppa79]

Actually I watch him pitch a lots. He is at least as good as Matz.

Until he proves in the majors, then he isn't as good as Matz. And I'm not willing to pay 75 million and an additonal 50 million to find out if he is good as Matz.

[webassign]

I forgot what major league team are you a scout for? Because you saw him on TV a couple of times doesn't make you an expert.

Compared to someone making judgments without ever seeing him throw a pitch?
Who on this message board is a major league scout? I think I'd be safe in guessing no one.
We're all baseball fans here making judgments and having discussions based on what we see and know about the game from a fan's perspective.

Its not worth taking a chance when you got to pay a posting fee that is 20+ million and then give him a contract that is worth 10 mil a year. When he hasn't even thrown a single major league pitch.
Burned on Igawa, Irabu, Maeda.

Paying a posting fee is the same as any other risk like signing a high ceiling/injury prone type ace like Ben Sheets. There's nothing wrong with taking a risk; you just have to be intelligent in picking your spots. However, you can sign Ben Sheets since he has and can dominate MLB hitters, but if he suddenly blows out his shoulder or something like that, you're stuck with another Carl Pavano. That's not necessarily a dumb risk. You know the benefits of the deal, but you also know the consequences. It's the same thing with signing a Japanese pitcher.

I've already explain why the Igawa signing should be viewed as an anomoly. No one was ever high on Igawa. Scouting reports constantly stated that he could probably fit into the back end of an MLB rotation. You heard it from Cashman like 20 times during the Igawa press conference. What you have to realize is that his signing was out of pure desperation to save face for losing out to the Red Sox AND the Mets on the Matsuzaka posting. No one ever expected him to suddenly become an ace when he got to America. The only reason why Igawa's posting fee became so high was because the Red Sox blew up the market. The Yankees were the victims of their own pride and an inflated market.

Irabu was definitely the biggest disappointment. He was touted as having dominant power ace type stuff and turned out to be a bust. But that was also 10 years ago. Irabu was $12.8 million over 4 years. We paid $2 million a year for Tony Womack. Irabu's contract hardly constitutes getting burned IMO. Major league scouting in Japan has also developed a lot over that 10 year span. The Yankees actually got a good return from the Expos for Irabu, so it wasn't all for naught.

Maeda? Wow, that was so long ago that I actually had to look that up.

"Maeda was obtained from the Seibu Lions for more than $350,000 and will eventually be assigned to the Yankees' Class AA team in Norwich, Conn."

$350,000 is getting burned?

Even Hideki Matsui hasn't been as good as he was in Japan. He was amazing there, here he is a above average player with horrible defense.

This team wouldn't even be in contention without Hideki's performance during the first half. Sticking him in the DH hole also eliminates that defensive problem. You also have to realize that the Matsui signing was more than just a baseball decision; it was about marketing. The Yankees wanted to make a big splash into a relatively untapped market and they did it by signing Matsui. Every player is unique and I don't think you can base a team's decision purely on baseball reasons.

Lets not even get into Kaz Matsui how much of a disappointment he has been.

What about Fukudome? Big star there who put up big numbers, but pretty average here.

Only Matsuzaka and Ichiro have been good as advertised.

This whole discussion is about Japanese pitchers, not Japanese position players, let alone position players on other teams. It wasn't the Yankee scouts that signed those players.
Even if you want to talk about Matsuzaka and Ichiro, you have to also admit that the Red Sox and Mariners took the initial risk in signing two really big name players (position and pitching) when other teams shied away from the risk. They've certainly reaped the rewards for those risks, and it's infuriating to someone like me to watch players get passed over because of ignorance and fear.

If the Yanks are smart what should they do is instead of overpaying for professional Japanese players who dominate inferior competition, sign them as amateurs like international free agents once they graduate HS and let them develop in the US with other minorleaguers. If they are good enough to be major leaguers then they will show it in the minors and you get them for cheap.

You seem to know so much about player development. How come you're not any MLB team's payroll?

It's not about the Yankees being smart and signing young Japanese players. If it were that easy, I can assure you that many teams would be doing that. Young Japanese players don't really like leaving their country. Japan has one of the highest standards of living in the world. There's not as much need to go and sign a professional contract with an American team to support your family like in a Latin American country. Also in a very homogenous society, it's understandable that young Japanese players wouldn't want to do something as extreme as going to another country by themselves at the tender age of 18. Why leave an environment where they are comfortable and can make comparable money?

And if you want to criticize Japanese players, what about Cuban players? We took risks on guys like Orlando Hernandez, and we also took risks on guys like Jose Contreras. One worked out wonderfully, while another was a Hideki Irabu-type bust. Neither of those guys ever played in any kind of MLB system. Where's the stereotype that they're all bums until proven otherwise? Sadly, I think racism is a hurdle that these Japanese players have to overcome.

[webassign]

Anyway, there's really not much more I can say on this issue. All I've been doing is responding to the same ignorance, page after page. If any other Darvish supporters want to continue this pointless argument, just tell them to read my posts.

[ppa79]

Paying a posting fee is the same as any other risk like signing a high ceiling/injury prone type ace like Ben Sheets. There's nothing wrong with taking a risk; you just have to be intelligent in picking your spots. However, you can sign Ben Sheets since he has and can dominate MLB hitters, but if he suddenly blows out his shoulder or something like that, you're stuck with another Carl Pavano. That's not necessarily a dumb risk. You know the benefits of the deal, but you also know the consequences. It's the same thing with signing a Japanese pitcher.

The only question about Ben Sheets is his health. There is no question about his ability. Yeah, you are stuck with another Carl Pavano and the 10 million dollars you are getting back because of insurance.

The problem with paying Japanese pitchers all that money is that you don't know about their ability. If he sucks, you are stuck with him. There is no insurance for a player stinking. At least with Pavano, they are getting the money back through insurance what are they getting from Igawa?

I've already explain why the Igawa signing should be viewed as an anomoly. No one was ever high on Igawa. Scouting reports constantly stated that he could probably fit into the back end of an MLB rotation. You heard it from Cashman like 20 times during the Igawa press conference. What you have to realize is that his signing was out of pure desperation to save face for losing out to the Red Sox AND the Mets on the Matsuzaka posting. No one ever expected him to suddenly become an ace when he got to America. The only reason why Igawa's posting fee became so high was because the Red Sox blew up the market. The Yankees were the victims of their own pride and an inflated market.

Irabu was definitely the biggest disappointment. He was touted as having dominant power ace type stuff and turned out to be a bust. But that was also 10 years ago. Irabu was $12.8 million over 4 years. We paid $2 million a year for Tony Womack. Irabu's contract hardly constitutes getting burned IMO. Major league scouting in Japan has also developed a lot over that 10 year span. The Yankees actually got a good return from the Expos for Irabu, so it wasn't all for naught.

Maeda? Wow, that was so long ago that I actually had to look that up.

"Maeda was obtained from the Seibu Lions for more than $350,000 and will eventually be assigned to the Yankees' Class AA team in Norwich, Conn."

$350,000 is getting burned?

Acutally Matz and Ichiro are the anomlies. They were stars there and are paying at a high level here too.

Igawa was a pretty decent pitcher there and he can't even break onto the major league roster. Hideki Matsui was the best player there and here he is an above average player. Fukudome was a star there and is pretty average here. Kaz Matsui was a star there and he is below average here.

This team wouldn't even be in contention without Hideki's performance during the first half. Sticking him in the DH hole also eliminates that defensive problem. You also have to realize that the Matsui signing was more than just a baseball decision; it was about marketing. The Yankees wanted to make a big splash into a relatively untapped market and they did it by signing Matsui. Every player is unique and I don't think you can base a team's decision purely on baseball reasons.

Like I said before, Hideki has been a above average player. However, when you think about all the hype surrounding the guy and how he performed in Japan before he came to the US I would expect a better performance. His numbers aren't even better than Paul O'Neill numbers as a Yankee during Paul's prime years.

This whole discussion is about Japanese pitchers, not Japanese position players, let alone position players on other teams. It wasn't the Yankee scouts that signed those players.
Even if you want to talk about Matsuzaka and Ichiro, you have to also admit that the Red Sox and Mariners took the initial risk in signing two really big name players (position and pitching) when other teams shied away from the risk. They've certainly reaped the rewards for those risks, and it's infuriating to someone like me to watch players get passed over because of ignorance and fear.

Now its gotten to a point its not worth taking the risk. More times you are probably gonna regret it.

It's not about the Yankees being smart and signing young Japanese players. If it were that easy, I can assure you that many teams would be doing that. Young Japanese players don't really like leaving their country. Japan has one of the highest standards of living in the world. There's not as much need to go and sign a professional contract with an American team to support your family like in a Latin American country. Also in a very homogenous society, it's understandable that young Japanese players wouldn't want to do something as extreme as going to another country by themselves at the tender age of 18. Why leave an environment where they are comfortable and can make comparable money?

Because they want to pursue a dream to be the best baseball player available. Play against the best competiton in the world. Professional baseball players are a different breed, their whole life focused on baseball since they are little.

And if you want to criticize Japanese players, what about Cuban players? We took risks on guys like Orlando Hernandez, and we also took risks on guys like Jose Contreras. One worked out wonderfully, while another was a Hideki Irabu-type bust. Neither of those guys ever played in any kind of MLB system. Where's the stereotype that they're all bums until proven otherwise? Sadly, I think racism is a hurdle that these Japanese players have to overcome.

Its nothing about racisim, its about ability. No one here has said, I don't want him because he is Japanese. People don't want him because you end up paying a lot of money because he was dominate against inferior competiton. If he didn't cost 75 million just to talk to the guy and another 50+ to sign him, I bet everyone would for signing the guy.

[ppa79]

Anyway, there's really not much more I can say on this issue. All I've been doing is responding to the same ignorance, page after page. If any other Darvish supporters want to continue this pointless argument, just tell them to read my posts.

Nice try using the racism arguement, but its not gonna work.

[webassign]

The only question about Ben Sheets is his health. There is no question about his ability. Yeah, you are stuck with another Carl Pavano and the 10 million dollars you are getting back because of insurance.

The problem with paying Japanese pitchers all that money is that you don't know about their ability. If he sucks, you are stuck with him. There is no insurance for a player stinking. At least with Pavano, they are getting the money back through insurance what are they getting from Igawa?

This is why you pick your spots. You don't spend money on back of the rotation type of guys. You spend it on dominant aces in Japan and hope that the typical leveling off due to MLB talent will turn him into a solid #2 or #3 starter. And if you're lucky, maybe he will translate into a MLB #1 starter. Whether or not this risk is worth it will depend on the factors that I discuss later, but sometimes (like last year with Matsuzaka), the Japanese pitcher is worth taking the risk.

I bet if Igawa was posted first, he would have only went for like $10 to $15 million at most.

Acutally Matz and Ichiro are the anomlies. They were stars there and are paying at a high level here too.

Igawa was a pretty decent pitcher there and he can't even break onto the major league roster. Hideki Matsui was the best player there and here he is an above average player. Fukudome was a star there and is pretty average here. Kaz Matsui was a star there and he is below average here.

Like I said before, Hideki has been a above average player. However, when you think about all the hype surrounding the guy and how he performed in Japan before he came to the US I would expect a better performance. His numbers aren't even better than Paul O'Neill numbers as a Yankee during Paul's prime years.

I think it's pretty well established that great Japanese players will face a certain leveling off in their production by coming over to a better league. This is pretty reasonable to expect in theory and is supported by the statistics of Japanese players that have already come over. I'm sure you wouldn't argue against that. Japanese players are unfortunately held to higher standards because of their performance in an admittedly inferior league. That's why I don't take much stock in pre-transition expectations for Japanese players.

Paulie is a pretty fair comparison. The numbers are surprisingly similar. But from a baseball organization stand point, you can't just ignore what else Matsui brought to the Yankees.

Now its gotten to a point its not worth taking the risk. More times you are probably gonna regret it.

It's not about complete avoidance; it's about better analysis. I'm not saying that you have to go after every single big star from Japan. You have to consider other factors.
1) free agent market during the posting year
2) the team's needs as well as those of other teams
3) scouts in Japan
We don't know what #1 and #2 will be, because we don't know when he'll be posted. But #3 has already been established. I don't think I've ever read a negative scout on Darvish from the stuff I've read about it.

Because they want to pursue a dream to be the best baseball player available. Play against the best competiton in the world. Professional baseball players are a different breed, their whole life focused on baseball since they are little.

Japanese people want to first prove that they are the best amongst their own before going up against the best. In a culture that is based on respect and hierarchy, it is seen as arrogance.

Its nothing about racisim, its about ability. No one here has said, I don't want him because he is Japanese. People don't want him because you end up paying a lot of money because he was dominate against inferior competiton. If he didn't cost 75 million just to talk to the guy and another 50+ to sign him, I bet everyone would for signing the guy.

Like I said pages ago, the 75 million figure is pure speculation by a bunch of writers. Darvish is no where close to being posted and many factors can change between now and when it eventually does happen.

[Abe Frohman]

Did you guys catch that e-ticket or e -wire ( ESPN ) on the whole Darvish

Phenomenon ? This dude is already one of the most popluar and successful

Japanese pitchers in history. Hes already conquered that league. the question is, is

he ready to step it up - and - is Nippon Ham ready to deal him. Theyre saying that if

all the Japanese stars keep deciding to come to the MLB, then whats the point of

having a japanese league ? they need these stars to keep interests up. one thing i

didnt like to hear was that when asked, his father said that of all the MLB teams, the

one hes interested in most is Boston.

[webassign]

Did you guys catch that e-ticket or e -wire ( ESPN ) on the whole Darvish

Phenomenon ? This dude is already one of the most popluar and successful

Japanese pitchers in history. Hes already conquered that league. the question is, is

he ready to step it up - and - is Nippon Ham ready to deal him. Theyre saying that if

all the Japanese stars keep deciding to come to the MLB, then whats the point of

having a japanese league ? they need these stars to keep interests up. one thing i

didnt like to hear was that when asked, his father said that of all the MLB teams, the

one hes interested in most is Boston.

This is the e-ticket that he's talking about.
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/...ideoId=3392671

[dabomb2045]

I'd rather spend the money on Sabathia and/or Sheets.....especially Sabathia. Ace #1 starter, lefty, big strikeout guy, innings eater.... who knows how to pitch in the AL and be successful. You pretty much know what you are gonna get from CC.

Sheets is a bit more of a question mark in changing leagues....but he has dominant stuff so as long as he stays healthy, I forsee no issues in him pitching well in the AL.

[flymick24]

saw him pitching against team usa... not really that impressed with his command, although his velocity was good (between 148kmp and 152, which roughly translates to 91-94)

got a lot of swings and misses, but most of the Ks were on pitches out of the zone and against AAAA hitters, pretty much... i could see him coming to the US and having a rough transition

[effdamets]

Oh God - please no......

[YankeeStripes]

The Matsuzaka posting fee was insane in itself and as of right now doesn't seem like it was worth it.

He's 15-3 with a 2.75 ERA.

He's pretty much the reason they are ahead of us.

[THEBOSS84]

saw him pitching against team usa... not really that impressed with his command, although his velocity was good (between 148kmp and 152, which roughly translates to 91-94)

got a lot of swings and misses, but most of the Ks were on pitches out of the zone and against AAAA hitters, pretty much... i could see him coming to the US and having a rough transition

The dude is 21. AA-AAA hitters are the ones he would be facing in the states if he were in the minors.