Yu Darvish- Posting fee?

[teknetic]

Ok, asked another way-- if he was a Japanese free agent, would you feel ok paying him $25M/yr for five years?

I ask because I think a lot of people discount the posting fee for some reason.

It's a ton of dough, but he's so superior to DiceK that you have to give it some thought. The Yankees will never have a chance to draft this sort of pitcher as long as they keep winning.

[ieddyi]

I don't get it-- I mean I know it doesn't count against the luxury tax, but it's still money.

If Darvish winds up getting 5/75, in total it will be $126M for 5 years-- that's more than CC or Halladay or Lee.

To me that just seems crazy for a guy who has yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues.

Absolutely, but that's the argument that was being made w/ a straight face over there. Along with the other myth of new revenue streams paying for his contract

It's a huge risk for the Rangers. I remember reading that their TV money was not as gaudy as the headlines due to the bankruptcy.

We might come to be very glad in the future we didn't win the bid, and right now can be happy that if he pans out, he won't be in our division

[YankeePride1967]

So you don't think owing Soriano $24M over the next two season is preventing us from making any moves? (Not just Yu)

This I think this a partially fair point. I think it is preventing us from moves, but I also think at the time of that signing we had no way of knowing the CBA would include the clause that heavily incentivizes the team to get below the $189 million level. I think with that knowledge last year Soriano would not be a Yankee.

[spikeowenfan]

I honestly don't know why they didn't just keep CJ Wilson-- I don't think he would have cost what Yu will wind up costing them.

They think Yu will be considerably better over the next 6 years. They're willing to pay 20-30 million more and let CJ go to their rival. Daniels must be really confident that Darvish is going to better because it's going to be really easy for him to lose his job or at least hear it about this constantly if this doesn't work out.

NPB is by all accounts better than triple AAA. The questions about different balls, pitching once a week, culture change, etc. make them comparable risks, though. If there was somehow a 25 year old triple AAA pitcher who had been putting sub 2 ERAs for the past 5 years, had a great pitcher's body, and scouts were drooling over him, I would feel very good about my team giving him 90-100 million for 6 years of control.

I posted a link a few days ago from fangraphs which used Jordan Zimmermann as the most apt MLB comparison due to age, statistical profile, and some question marks. I think most here would be happy if the Yankees could sign Zimmermann to 6/96 or 5/85.

edit: I think Darvish is worth 90-105. It looks like the Rangers will have to spend 110-120. I respect the courage, but am not upset about the Yankees missing out on that. I'd much rather they sign Kuroda for a year and hope that Hamels is available next year for that money.

[Mr Coffee]

It's a ton of dough, but he's so superior to DiceK that you have to give it some thought. The Yankees will never have a chance to draft this sort of pitcher as long as they keep winning.

Yeah, but I think we all agree that Dice-K was a huge overpay.

If I were going to pay that much money I'd want to be reasonably certain that he's in CC/Halladay/Lee territory. Seems like an awful chance to take going that high on an unproven guy.

[YankeePride1967]

There are other teams competing for the same pitcher. You can't stop another team from breaking the bank and making some crazy offer. I am happy that Cash at least tried to get Cliff Lee. I am not happy that he did not even put in a serious bid for Yu Darvish.

I am not saying Yu is as good as Cliff Lee but we have a huge hole in our rotation. You'd think that Cash would at the least try to win this sweepstake. My reaction after learning how much Yankees bid was: WTF.

I think Lee wanted to go to Philadelphia. I don't think he really wanted to go to Texas and the Yankees to begin with which is why that process took so long. Philly jumped in late on a Friday (after weeks I believe of negotiating with other teams) and by Monday the deal was signed. I don't think that was a failure on Texas or the Yankees part at all.

[bmxstreetrider86]

It's a ton of dough, but he's so superior to DiceK that you have to give it some thought. The Yankees will never have a chance to draft this sort of pitcher as long as they keep winning.

id give it some thought, but 25 mil a year makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball. we all love upside, but this isnt some drafting a pitcher and failing to sign him over a million bucks here

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

This I think this a partially fair point. I think it is preventing us from moves, but I also think at the time of that signing we had no way of knowing the CBA would include the clause that heavily incentivizes the team to get below the $189 million level. I think with that knowledge last year Soriano would not be a Yankee.

Most of that savings, though, has nothing to do with the new CBA.

[YESSIR!]

I don't get it-- I mean I know it doesn't count against the luxury tax, but it's still money.

If Darvish winds up getting 5/75, in total it will be $126M for 5 years-- that's more than CC or Halladay or Lee.

To me that just seems crazy for a guy who has yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues.

Agreed it's a lot of money (ok, too much, really), but part of what makes Darvish attractive is the hope that you are paying for his absolute prime and the best years of his career, whereas with these other guys who are signing big money deals after age 30, you are likely paying more for past production than future production. So while you might get 3 years of elite production from, say, Cliff Lee, before he starts to under-pitch his paycheck, you theoretically shouldn't face that same problem with a 25 year old on a 5-6 year deal.

Also, we don't really know how teams value the posting fee w/r/t total contract outlays. The future value of money tells us they would hate the upfront sum, but there seems to be some real benefit in not having that money actually on the books as payroll.

[YankeePride1967]

I think it's hard to believe me when I tell you that I didn't want Yu THAT bad after everything I wrote today, but the part that strikes me is that if the Rangers were willing to put down 5/125 on this guy, how could the Yanks, a team with an obvious need as big as theirs, NOT be willing to?

Different valuation on the player?

[False1]

Ok, I'll do something. I was waiting for you to chime into this discussion considering you're objective, but I don't see your POV yet.

I'll try to summarize:

• Have the Yankees struggled in developing/acquiring elite starters? Yes, but probably not as much as some think (financial advantages versus draft position/pressure to WIN NOW).
• Do I love the current Yankees rotation? Definitely not.
• Is it good enough to get them in playoff contention? I believe so.
• Does Cashman have time to upgrade this offseason, and/or by the trade deadline? Lots.
• Do we have the chips to make a big splash if necessary? Looks that way.
• Should we have acquired Haren when we had the chance? No doubt.
• Do I think the Yankees should have gone near Wilson for 5/$75MM? Yep.
• Do I think they are stupid for not going after Wilson at that price? No.
• Do I think they are stupid for not bidding >$52MM to negotiate a ~$75MM deal with a player that has never worn a MLB uniform? No.
• Would I have liked to have seen them try? Kind of.
• Would it hamstring us to sink $125MM or so in a pitcher and have him channel Igawa or even Matsuzaka? Possibly.
• Is anything short of becoming one of the games most prolific starters a huge overpay for Darvish's assumed total cost? Yes.
• Does that mean that the upside relative to cost is limited and the downside risk is enormous? Yep - even for the Yankees.

So... would I have liked to see Darvish? Yes, but not going to kill this FO for not bidding >$52MM to have a shot.

I acknowledge they have a poor track record with starters, which is why they've moved away from throwing massive contracts at the Shiny Object on the market (CC notwithstanding) and focused on developing prime pitching prospects. For use on the club or as trading chips. It's too early to judge them on that.

The only real issue I've had - and had since before they whiffed - was passing up on Haren.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Agreed it's a lot of money (ok, too much, really), but part of what makes Darvish attractive is the hope that you are paying for his absolute prime and the best years of his career, whereas with these other guys who are signing big money deals after age 30, you are likely paying more for past production than future production. So while you might get 3 years of elite production from, say, Cliff Lee, before he starts to under-pitch his paycheck, you theoretically shouldn't face that same problem with a 25 year old on a 5-6 year deal.

Also, we don't really know how teams value the posting fee w/r/t total contract outlays. The future value of money tells us they would hate the upfront sum, but there seems to be some real benefit in not having that money actually on the books as payroll.

in a vacuum you would rather do that obviously, but (and im as big a Darvish fan as there is) you have no idea what his prime years look like.

[YankeePride1967]

Most of that savings, though, has nothing to do with the new CBA.

That's right, it's 2014 that that issue begins and Soriano is off of our payroll by then. So in that case, unless I'm missing something, I don't think Soriano has anything to do with why we didn't go more all out for Darvish.

[YankeePride1967]

I'll try to summarize:

• Have the Yankees struggled in developing/acquiring elite starters? Yes, but probably not as much as some think (financial advantages versus draft position/pressure to WIN NOW).
• Do I love the current Yankees rotation? Definitely not.
• Is it good enough to get them in playoff contention? I believe so.
• Does Cashman have time to upgrade this offseason, and/or by the trade deadline? Lots.
• Do we have the chips to make a big splash if necessary? Looks that way.
• Should we have acquired Haren when we had the chance? No doubt.
• Do I think the Yankees should have gone near Wilson for 5/$75MM? Yep.
• Do I think they are stupid for not going after Wilson at that price? No.
• Do I think they are stupid for not bidding >$52MM to negotiate a ~$75MM deal with a player that has never worn a MLB uniform? No.
• Would I have liked to have seen them try? Kind of.
• Would it hamstring us to sink $125MM or so in a pitcher and have him channel Igawa or even Matsuzaka? Possibly.
• Is anything short of becoming one of the games most prolific starters a huge overpay for Darvish's assumed total cost? Yes.
• Does that mean that the upside relative to cost is limited and the downside risk is enormous? Yep - even for the Yankees.

So... would I have liked to see Darvish? Yes, but not going to kill this FO for not bidding >$52MM to have a shot.

I acknowledge they have a poor track record with starters, which is why they've moved away from throwing massive contracts at the Shiny Object on the market (CC notwithstanding) and focused on developing prime pitching prospects. For use on the club or as trading chips. It's too early to judge them on that.

The only real issue I've had - and had since before they whiffed - was passing up on Haren.

I agree on all points.

[just-blaze]

Who are you penciling in for 200 innings of 110 ERA+ ball?

This guy?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...novaiv01.shtml

[YESSIR!]

in a vacuum you would rather do that obviously, but (and im as big a Darvish fan as there is) you have no idea what his prime years look like.

Yep, that's part of the risk/reward. You have to trust your scouts and approximate the carry-over of his NPB numbers favorably.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Yep, that's part of the risk/reward. You have to trust your scouts and approximate the carry-over of his NPB numbers favorably.

my problem with that is i think the risk that darvish is going to be paid more than the top paid pitchers (like CC), he has to be at least as good as them if not better, and i dont think anyone thinks he is going to be that good.


i just dont really see the reward. im very surprised the posting bid was that high, shocked really

[YankeePride1967]

my problem with that is i think the risk that darvish is going to be paid more than the top paid pitchers (like CC), he has to be at least as good as them if not better, and i dont think anyone thinks he is going to be that good.


i just dont really see the reward. im very surprised the posting bid was that high, shocked really

I will say this. For Texas to get their money's worth on it, Darvish better be at least on the level of CC.

[LIYanks]

I think Lee wanted to go to Philadelphia. I don't think he really wanted to go to Texas and the Yankees to begin with which is why that process took so long. Philly jumped in late on a Friday (after weeks I believe of negotiating with other teams) and by Monday the deal was signed. I don't think that was a failure on Texas or the Yankees part at all.

Judging from how much Texas' offer was to Lee, I think Texas really wanted to keep Lee. Nolan Ryan must be furious after losing Lee and that's why Texas was so aggressive with Darvish.

I secretly wish Lee's left arm falls off last season but I'll settle for a first round exit for the best team in NL.

[LIYanks]

I will say this. For Texas to get their money's worth on it, Darvish better be at least on the level of CC.

Actually, he only needs to match CJ Wilson's numbers over the next five years. That's who Darvish is replacing.

Nolan Ryan is betting on youth and hoping that Darvish will be an elite pitcher longer than CJ Wilson would for the Angels.

[YESSIR!]

my problem with that is i think the risk that darvish is going to be paid more than the top paid pitchers (like CC), he has to be at least as good as them if not better, and i dont think anyone thinks he is going to be that good.


i just dont really see the reward. im very surprised the posting bid was that high, shocked really

Well again, we don't know how teams view the posting fee in relation to contract obligations. Darvish will technically only be making $12-$15M per year, which doesn't sniff what the top pitchers are making. If TEX pursues a line of credit on $50M to post for him, there could be myriad benefits we're not privy to that make this more attractive then simply paying a pitcher $25M per year outright. I don't think it's quite fair to just proclaim he'll be being paid like a top pitcher, but I do agree with your general angle that the overall financial obligation is outsized, to put it mildly.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Well again, we don't know how teams view the posting fee in relation to contract obligations. Darvish will technically only be making $12-$15M per year, which doesn't sniff what the top pitchers are making. If TEX pursues a line of credit on $50M to post for him, there could be myriad benefits we're not privy to that make this more attractive then simply paying a pitcher $25M per year outright. I don't think it's quite fair to just proclaim he'll be being paid like a top pitcher, but I do agree with your general angle that the overall financial obligation is outsized, to put it mildly.

im pretty sure that cutting a 50 million dollar check up front has few benefits.

[OldYankeeFan]

I'm curious as to how Joba and Hughes would have panned out if this team actually had a competent pitching coach like Rothschild instead of zombies like Guidry and Eiland.

In terms of our suckitude in growing starting pitchers (since Cashman took over the farm) THIS is what I totally agree with.

Scouting/MiLB development are not to blame IMO as Cashman and the scouts have done a decent job considering our drafting limitations in selecting at the bottom of the draft and having to give up a lot of draft picks for FA signings.

Going with HS selections which are more risky like Hughes, high risk/high reward possibilities like Joba, solid 1st round selection like IPK, overpaying lower draft picks like Betances and hitting the Intl FA market Nova, Adroys, Noesi and Banuelos. I really see no "current" problem or concern in their approach or execution.

This system delivered to us ...

- Hughes who was so good in the minors that he needed more experience with a runners on 3rd base because he so rarely let one get that far.

- Joba who was probably the most dominant pitcher I EVER saw when he first came up.

- And IPK who I said at the time reminded me of a young Mussina. (I got nail for that one)

What we ended up with was basically crapola compared to the immence potential of all three. Is it a coinsidence that IPK finally flourished after being traded while the other two floundered (except for 1/2 season for Hughes)? I don't think so. But it wasn't the fault of our scouts and MiLB system. And I like tek, put their failure to develop once they arrived on the ML pitching coaches, and because of that the FO who hired them.

A great Yankee pitcher does not necessarily make an even good pitching coach. Did Guidry have any real experience at analyzing film or any real experience at teaching pitching at all? And I believe Eiland just got lucky that Hughes passed through him and got some cred leading to his promotion.

Hopefully they rectified that gross inadequacy with Rothchild and the next batch of young SP coming up gives us the cost controlled front line rotation we so desperately seek.

[teknetic]

Speaking of the Rangers, I was surprised to see Martin Perez's numbers being so...underwhelming. Isn't he a top-10 prospect?

[False1]

im pretty sure that cutting a 50 million dollar check up front has few benefits.

Yeah, I don't get this either - particularly for a team not over the cap.

Even with the luxury tax implications, the front-loading of a deal eats into a non-trivial percentage of that specific benefit.

People need to stop pretending the $52MM bid isn't part of the overall cost. True that it doesn't count against the luxury tax (and probably should in all honesty), but would you rather have a guy with at $200MM bid and $1MM a year for 5 years, or a $10MM bid and $20MM for 5 years?

We didn't let RSN do it with Matsuzaka, we shouldn't pretend it away when looking at our FO.