Results 1 to 3 of 3
05-05-08 10:47 AM #1
- Join Date
- May 2005
- Nassau County
ESPN Cy Young Predictor Formula vs. Common Sense
The AL Top 10 has four closers:
Jonathan Papelbon (2-0, 9 saves, 1.76 ERA)
Francisco Rodriguez (0-0, 13 saves, 3.29 ERA)
Joe Nathan (0-0, 11 saves, 0.69 ERA)
George Sherrill (1-0, 11 saves, 4.97 ERA)
I'd make a case that you could make a group of four other AL closers who combined are better than the above four. My list would include three closers with 0.00 ERAs (Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Troy Percival) with no obvious fourth choice (Huston Street, C.J. Wilson, and Bobby Jenks are the other AL closers with at least 6 saves). If I choose Jenks (who has a better ERA than Street and Wilson), I have four closers with a combined ERA of 0.57, which is better than any of the first group. The first group has a combined ERA of 2.63.
Here are some changes I would make to the formula:
1. I would change wins from 6 points to 3 points, losses from -2 to -3, and also give 3 points for quality starts. That would help pitchers who got a loss or no decision from a quality start and hurt pitchers who rack up wins while not pitching well. I would also not give a reliever a deduction for a loss if he did not give up any earned runs in the game.
2. I would charge a penalty for a blown save in which the closer gave up at least one of his own earned runs and/or not give a pitcher any points for a win if he blew the save first. If Pitcher X pitches 1 inning (worth 5/9ths of a points), allows 0 earned runs, strikes out Q amount of batters (worth 1/12 each), and gets a save (2.5 points), his Cy Young Predictor score for the game could be 0.5 points worse than Pitcher Y who pitched much worse. Pitcher Y could also pitch 1 inning, allow 3 earned runs (-1 each so -3 total), also strike out Q amount of batters, blow the save (no penalty other than not getting the 2.5 points for a save), and get a win (6 points).
3. Since middle relievers will never win the Cy Young Award, this change would make the formula less accurate at predicting the award but better at comparing pitchers regardless of role. I would give a reliever 0.5 points per out for a relief apperance of at least 1 inning with this bonus not exceeding 3 points in a game and only being awarded if the pitcher allowed no earned runs and only if the pitcher did not get a win or save from the appearance.
Users Browsing this Thread
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)