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  1. #1
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    We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    I was reading in the thread about who we want/don’t want on the 2009 Yankees and saw that some people wanted to re-sign Abreu to a 2 year extension depending on where he is at the end of this year. I decided to do some research into how Abreu compares to other number 3 hitters in baseball. Using 2007 stats this is what I have found:

    Code:
    Team	Name	AVG.	OBP.	OPS+ 	HR	RBI	Better**
    NYY	Abreu	.283	.369	114	16	101	--
    BOS	Ortiz	.332	.445	171	35	117	DEF
    BAL	Markak	.276	.413	121	23	112	YES
    TBD	Upton	.300	.386	136	24	82	DEF
    TOR	Rios	.297	.354	122	24	85	YES
    CHW	Thome	.275	.410	150	35	96	DEF
    CLE	Hafner	.266	.385	118	24	100	YES
    DET	Sheff	.265	.378	120	25	75	YES
    MIN	Mauer	.293	.382	117	7	60	YES
    KCR	Teahen	.285	.353	98	7	60	NO
    LAA	Vlad	.324	.403	147	27	125	DEF
    OAK	Barton	.302*	.398	145	5	21	YES
    SEA	Ibanez	.291	.351	121	21	105	YES
    TEX	Hamiltn	.292	.368	131	19	47	YES
    PHI	Utley	.332	.410	145	22	103	DEF
    NYM	Wright	.325	.416	150	30	107	DEF
    FLA	Hermida	.296	.369	125	18	63	YES
    ATL	Chipper	.337	.425	166	29	102	DEF
    WSN	Zimm	.266	.330	107	24	91	NO
    STL	Pujols	.327	.429	157	32	103	DEF
    CHC	D. Lee	.317	.400	131	22	82	DEF
    MIL	Braun	.324	.370	153	34	97	DEF
    HOU	Berkman	.278	.386	131	34	102	DEF
    CIN	Griffey	.277	.372	119	30	93	YES
    PIT	Bay	.247	.327	93	21	84	NO
    ARI	Hudson	.294	.376	106	10	63	NO
    LAD	Kemp	.342	.373	125	10	42	YES
    SFG	Winn	.300	.353	105	14	65	NO
    COL	Helton	.320	.434	133	17	91	DEF
    SDP	A. Gonz	.282	.347	125	30	100	DEF
    * Daric Barton’s stats were taken from 2007 and 2008 for a larger sample size
    ** DEF = definitely, YES = arguably, NO = not

    Thus, from these stats…in 2007 Abreu was the 6th worst 3-hitter in baseball. He was the second worst in the entire AL, only beating out Teahen for the Royals. Maybe some of our offensive woes can be attributed to having a number 3 hitter who isn’t good enough to be hitting in the 3 spot for the Yankees. Given that he is usually hitting in front of A-Rod, his stats look even worse.
    Masahiro Tanaka, 24-0 in 2013. He's the Japanese Jack Bauer.

  2. #2
    My photograph. Soriambi's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    You seem to be addressing two separate questions here:

    Is Abreu an adequete #3 hitter, and do we need a better one?

    If the answer to the first question is that we need a better one, does that mean that we shouldn't re-sign Abreu?

    I don't think the two things are all that connected. Just because Abreu isn't one of the top #3 hitters in the league, based on what you said above, doesn't mean that he can't help somewhere in the lineup. I always think that comparing players directly to other players at their batting order position or rotation spot is not necessarily valid. The best way that I can explain it is this:

    Rather than directly comparing your team's #1 to their team's #1, your team's #2 to their team's #2, etc, I think that each pitching rotation and lineup has a total value, which is the cumulative value of all of the players involved. Just because your team is weaker at five out of the nine lineup spots doesn't mean that you're weaker offensively than the other team.

    Based on the numbers above, if you had these two teams:

    Team A:

    1. Bobby Abreu
    2. Albert Pujols
    3. Albert Pujols
    4. Albert Pujols
    5. Albert Pujols
    6. Bobby Abreu
    7. Bobby Abreu
    8. Bobby Abreu
    9. Bobby Abreu

    Team B:

    1-9 are B.J. Upton

    Based on 2007 numbers, you could make a reasonable case that Team B has a lineup advantage at 5 out of the nine spots, thus "winning" 5-4. I think we'd all agree, however, that pitching and defense being equal, the lineup with four Pujolses and five Abreus would score a lot more runs than a lineup of nine Uptons over the course of a normal season.

    Therefore, when we're deciding whether to re-sign him, I think that we need to look at Bobby Abreu as a hitter, rather than at Bobby Abreu as a #3 hitter. The point that Abreu isn't among the best hitters in the league (and that he isn't even close) seems valid enough, and perhaps we should address that, but I still think that he adds a lot to a teams' total value.
    -Kevin

    "My point is you can't compare things with statistics." Joe Morgan


    RIP, Pete.

  3. #3
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.

  4. #4
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Yes, I agree with your reasoning. I don't necessarily mean to say that we shouldn't even think about re-signing Abreu. I just think that if we do, it should be to put him in the 2-spot, leadoff, or somewhere further down.

    Mainly, this thread was intended to show that Abreu is not your typical number 3 hitter in the major leagues. He lacks the power and productivity that you need to hit third.

    Our lineup usually does score a ton of runs in the regular season, however...the middle of our order has been getting exposed in the playoffs. Some of that has to do with Abreu.
    Masahiro Tanaka, 24-0 in 2013. He's the Japanese Jack Bauer.

  5. #5
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84
    I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.
    Definitely.
    Masahiro Tanaka, 24-0 in 2013. He's the Japanese Jack Bauer.

  6. #6
    My photograph. Soriambi's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by bcom33
    Yes, I agree with your reasoning. I don't necessarily mean to say that we shouldn't even think about re-signing Abreu. I just think that if we do, it should be to put him in the 2-spot or have him hit leadoff.

    Mainly, this thread was intended to show that Abreu is not your typical number 3 hitter in the major leagues. He lacks the power and productivity that you need to hit third.

    Our lineup usually does score a ton of runs in the regular season, however...the middle of our order has been getting exposed in the playoffs. Some of that has to do with Abreu.
    Ah, okay. When you mentioned that some people are thinking about signing him to an extension, I thought you were saying that we shouldn't because he wasn't as good as other 3 hitters.

    Plus, I like making that argument as much as I can because I see tons of people comparing lineups and pitching rotations by comparing each player to their "counterpart" and I don't think that's the best way to compare teams.
    -Kevin

    "My point is you can't compare things with statistics." Joe Morgan


    RIP, Pete.

  7. #7

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Abreu is a great 3 hitter when he has A-Rod behind him picking up the slack as far as power numbers go but without A-Rod a lot more responsibility falls on him and he hasnt really picked it up.
    If you listen to the fans you’ll be sitting with them soon enough.- Brian Cashman

  8. #8
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Bobby Abreu is around #399 on my top 400 list of Yankee problems.

  9. #9
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Yeah, we should pick up Pujols off waivers.

  10. #10
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    Yeah, we should pick up Pujols off waivers.
    Not only that, we should hire you as the next GM for thinking this brilliant plan up.

  11. #11
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    In addition to a #3, the Yankees could use a #1 hitter, a 4 hitter, a 5 hitter....
    Beware the Bobcat!!!


  12. #12
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by TheYankee
    Bobby Abreu is around #399 on my top 400 list of Yankee problems.
    I felt that all other complaints were being covered...lol
    Masahiro Tanaka, 24-0 in 2013. He's the Japanese Jack Bauer.

  13. #13

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    If the Yankees sign Teixeira, we won't need Abreu as much. Tex could go in the middle of the lineup, and we could get one of the kids in RF, assuming at least one of them is ready to come up. Abreu and Tex in the lineup would be killer, though.

  14. #14

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Abreu
    Jeter
    Matsui
    A-Rod
    Posada
    Cano
    Giambi
    Melky
    Damon

    once everyone is healthy of course. won't happen though. Damon is fast so he has to get the most ABs on the team regardless of how often he gets out or on base

  15. #15
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Seriously- the person we should be worrying about least is Abreu.

  16. #16
    Released Outright
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by Prison Mike
    Seriously- the person we should be worrying about least is Abreu.
    I don't understand this sentiment. It's not as if any of our worries actually have any bearing on what happens on the field and it's not as if there is some limit as to how many players we have the capacity to worry about. I can worry about the rotation, Giambi, Cano, Arod, Posada, etc etc etc and still have time to worry about Abreu.

  17. #17
    Sunny days ahead YankeePride1967's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    By bringing Abreu back, there is no law saying we have to bat him third. How about fifth? Of course cost and length of the deal are factors in the decision.
    Life is good!

  18. #18
    The gerbil lives Zimmers' Helmet's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Robinson Cano will make a good #3 hitter once he rediscovers his swing again.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  19. #19
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    It would be fun to see ARod hit 3rd (when he's healthy again), and have a killer bat hitting cleanup. Abreu is really better suited to hit somewhere else in the order. He's fine, but far from the best overall hitter on our team, which is an ideal spot for the number three guy.
    Yankee fan living in Maine.

  20. #20
    The Sausage King of Chicago Abe Frohman's Avatar
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Robbie Cano, when he comes back to earth, will be our ideal 3 hitter in the future ...

  21. #21

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Abreu is probably best suited to hit 2nd or even leadoff.

  22. #22

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    The problem I see with the comparison between Abreu and the other 3-hole hitters is that they are only based on last year's numbers, and Abreu was uncharacteristically hideous at the plate for half the year in 2007.

    Obviously he doesn't compare favorably with guys like Ortiz, Vlad, and Pujols because those guys are real animals. But I don't think he's getting a fair shake in this comparison.

  23. #23
    NYYF Legend

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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by ObscurePlayer
    The problem I see with the comparison between Abreu and the other 3-hole hitters is that they are only based on last year's numbers, and Abreu was uncharacteristically hideous at the plate for half the year in 2007.

    Obviously he doesn't compare favorably with guys like Ortiz, Vlad, and Pujols because those guys are real animals. But I don't think he's getting a fair shake in this comparison.
    yeah, i definitely thought of that when I made the comparison. His 2007 numbers were pretty terrible compared to his career averages. However, all of his numbers since he came to NY have been terrible compared to his career averages.
    Masahiro Tanaka, 24-0 in 2013. He's the Japanese Jack Bauer.

  24. #24

    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by bcom33
    yeah, i definitely thought of that when I made the comparison. His 2007 numbers were pretty terrible compared to his career averages. However, all of his numbers since he came to NY have been terrible compared to his career averages.
    ?????? Abreu was a beast in 2006. He hit like .340 with a .420 OBP and .930 OPS with the Yankees.

  25. #25
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    Re: We need a better three hitter than Abreu

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84
    I definitely do not think that we should re-sign Abreu. Mark Tex is the obvious 3-hole replacement.
    Abreu will also certainly be a type A FA, which makes the choice easier.
    My writing can be found at It Is About The Money, Stupid. Come heckle me.

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