Various "experts" 2008 MLB prediction thread

[THEBOSS84]

Because I have nowhere else to put it:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....html#?eref=T1

Verducci picks the Yanks to win the division..Tigers to win it all.

Olney in his chat today picked the Yanks to win the East and the Indians to win it all.

The below SI "scouting reports" has the Yanks finishing with the top record in baseball

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...x.html?eref=T1 Click on the team to read the full scouting report.

Post all expert predictions in here.

[CallOfTheCrow]

lol @ tigers winning it all. They need some major help in that pen & for every key cog in their starting lineup to avoid the DL at all costs for that to be likely.

[BonusCantos]

Sure, the Tigers improved, but there's still plenty of questions about them to be answered. They're just this year's trendy pick.

[ngruz25]

But...but...I thought everyone was biased against the Yankees?

[RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees]

But...but...I thought everyone was biased against the Yankees?

But...but...I thought you people have your own thread to troll in.

[sjb23]

lol @ tigers winning it all. They need some major help in that pen & for every key cog in their starting lineup to avoid the DL at all costs for that to be likely.

Couldn't we say that about the Yankees (and just about any other powerhouse contender) also?

[aeromac76]

I will say this, back in the winter I thought I would be sick to my stomach with all the preseason picks Red Sox love and hate on the Yankees.
I have to admit, thus far I have been wrong.
Most of the experts picks are quite reasonable, even if varied, and they seem to be justifying their feelings.

In a strange twist, the only picks I found to be uproarious and without any merit are those of a NY writer, Bill Madden.
He picks the Blue Jays to win the East, and the Yankees not only to finish out of the playoffs, but to finish with a 84-78 record. Barely above .500.

That was the only time to Looked at anything thus far with wide eyes and asked "are you for real?" Everything else, be it Yankees or Red Sox picks and WS picks as well, have been reasonable.

[NYYDragoon]

Dammit. I don't like when analysts pick the Yankees to win anything...that hasn't resulted in much luck as of late. I preferred going into this as the underdogs.

The Tigers aren't winning it all, but sometimes it's hard to go against what things look like on paper.

[jeterismyhomeboy]

Couldn't we say that about the Yankees (and just about any other powerhouse contender) also?

Well, here's the thing: most other contenders have these awesome things called "farm teams." Detroit sold theirs. The only contributor who would not be replacement level is probably Rick Porcello, and while the kid is very special, if he's in the majors at some point this season, it means that the Tigers have no shot in heck of making the playoffs.

They have exactly five pitchers they can put in the rotation who are above replacement level: Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, Willis and Rogers. They don't have a single sixth or seventh starter who is better than replacement. Not only that, but they don't even have someone who can spot start out of the pen, because it's decimated. Bonderman has the tools, but has never broken out. Robertson needs to have the same epiphany he had in '06, Willis needs to pitch like he's in the 2005 NL, and Rogers needs to forget that he's 43 and pitched less than 100 IP last year.

I dunno, I don't think that they're nearly as formidable as people think. The offense looks incredible if you plug in everyone's '07 stats. But if you think Magglio is going to hit .362 again, or Polanco will hit .341 again, I've got a bridge to sell you. Renteria has had 5 seasons of an OPS+ over 100, and even with those, still has a career OPS+ of 97. Never has he had three consecutive seasons above average offensively. Gary Sheffield can be very effective, but he needs to stay off the DL to do that. Miggy is going to completely and totally rock. No denying that. He'll give back about a third of his value with his glove. Granderson is a regression candidate: his BABiP was 15 points higher than his career average, and most of the rise in his SLG was due to an astronomical jump in triples, which he will not be able to replicate.

All in all, if they end up out of the Central race and out of the Wild Card hunt, I wouldn't be surprised. I suppose I would be surprised if they took the Central handily, if only because it means they have to stay perfectly healthy.

[YASS]

Well, here's the thing: most other contenders have these awesome things called "farm teams." Detroit sold theirs. The only contributor who would not be replacement level is probably Rick Porcello, and while the kid is very special, if he's in the majors at some point this season, it means that the Tigers have no shot in heck of making the playoffs.

They have exactly five pitchers they can put in the rotation who are above replacement level: Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, Willis and Rogers. They don't have a single sixth or seventh starter who is better than replacement. Not only that, but they don't even have someone who can spot start out of the pen, because it's decimated. Bonderman has the tools, but has never broken out. Robertson needs to have the same epiphany he had in '06, Willis needs to pitch like he's in the 2005 NL, and Rogers needs to forget that he's 43 and pitched less than 100 IP last year.

I dunno, I don't think that they're nearly as formidable as people think. The offense looks incredible if you plug in everyone's '07 stats. But if you think Magglio is going to hit .362 again, or Polanco will hit .341 again, I've got a bridge to sell you. Renteria has had 5 seasons of an OPS+ over 100, and even with those, still has a career OPS+ of 97. Never has he had three consecutive seasons above average offensively. Gary Sheffield can be very effective, but he needs to stay off the DL to do that. Miggy is going to completely and totally rock. No denying that. He'll give back about a third of his value with his glove. Granderson is a regression candidate: his BABiP was 15 points higher than his career average, and most of the rise in his SLG was due to an astronomical jump in triples, which he will not be able to replicate.

All in all, if they end up out of the Central race and out of the Wild Card hunt, I wouldn't be surprised. I suppose I would be surprised if they took the Central handily, if only because it means they have to stay perfectly healthy.

Excellent post.

I do think Yorman Bazardo has a decent shot at contributing above replacement level this year, though, and he might give good innings as a long man out of the pen or as a spot starter. Beyond this quibble, I agree completely.

[b-ball-lunachick]

Well I heard Gammons on Mike and Mike this morning...same sh#t, different year:

Yankees won't make the playoffs.
Wild Card in the AL won't come out of the East.
Cleveland in the WS..

I swear he's said the same thing the last 3years...

[SubwayFanatic]

Well I heard Gammons on Mike and Mike this morning...same sh#t, different year:

Yankees won't make the playoffs.
Wild Card in the AL won't come out of the East.
Cleveland in the WS..

I swear he's said the same thing the last 3years...

Wow, people have really been on that "Wild Card won't come out of the East" bandwagon for quite some time.

I guess if they keep saying it at some point it does have to happen.

[effdamets]

Well I heard Gammons on Mike and Mike this morning...same sh#t, different year:

Yankees won't make the playoffs.
Wild Card in the AL won't come out of the East.
Cleveland in the WS..

I swear he's said the same thing the last 3years...

He's got it on tape.....

[blumj]

Wow, people have really been on that "Wild Card won't come out of the East" bandwagon for quite some time.

I guess if they keep saying it at some point it does have to happen.

Well, it did happen two years ago.

[b-ball-lunachick]

Well, it did happen two years ago.

And it was glorious. well, for some of us.

He was going on and on and smirking up a storm about the WC notcoming from the east that year, and saying the Yankees wouldn't make it...same smirk he wore while he ripped Cano before he came up...eff Gammons...I can't stand that guy...

[Tribefan]

Because I have nowhere else to put it:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....html#?eref=T1

Verducci picks the Yanks to win the division..Tigers to win it all.

Olney in his chat today picked the Yanks to win the East and the Indians to win it all.

The below SI "scouting reports" has the Yanks finishing with the top record in baseball

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...x.html?eref=T1 Click on the team to read the full scouting report.

Post all expert predictions in here.

I've seen a couple places that picked the Indians to win it all. Makes me nervous that people think we are good enough to win the WS...I'd rather fly under the radar...

[Crash Davis]

Verducci brings up a pretty good point in pointing out all the $ we have coming off the books, and the availability of Mark Texeira. For some reason, I just don't see him leaving Atlanta. I feel like they're ready to pass him the throne after Chipper.

[blumj]

And it was glorious. well, for some of us.

He was going on and on and smirking up a storm about the WC notcoming from the east that year, and saying the Yankees wouldn't make it...same smirk he wore while he ripped Cano before he came up...eff Gammons...I can't stand that guy...

Well, it's Insider, but I saw his predictions article reprinted on another board, and Gammons picked Joba as his ROY winner and Hughes as one of his CYA vote-getters and breakout candidates.

[bigjf]

Dammit. I don't like when analysts pick the Yankees to win anything...that hasn't resulted in much luck as of late. I preferred going into this as the underdogs.

The Tigers aren't winning it all, but sometimes it's hard to go against what things look like on paper.

We are the underdogs, it doesn't matter who picks what. I could pick the Rays to shock the world and win it all, but it doesn't mean anything. The fact that Boston won it all automatically puts us in the underdog role, so we've really been there for a while now. But we still have to be favored to make the playoffs, if not win it all.

[NYDCYankee]

I really think the Angels might not make the playoffs.

I do think that it is entirely possible that the Yankees or Red Sox won't make the playoffs though. I think things could go really wrong for both teams.

[Meecham4ever]

Sporting News may be right...

http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/SoxBlog/

RAY GUNS: Writing for SportingNews.com, David Pinto says Tampa Bay has a better starting rotation than either the Red Sox or Yankees.

[RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees]

Sporting News may be right...

http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/SoxBlog/

RAY GUNS: Writing for SportingNews.com, David Pinto says Tampa Bay has a better starting rotation than either the Red Sox or Yankees.

I think that's a bit overboard.

[YanksFan1992]

I think that's a bit overboard.

Just a tad...

Tampa has some great young pitchers but their 1-5 rotation compared to us and the Red Sox isn't even close in my opinion.