Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation

[Matsui55]

I know it is a long time till October, but now that enough of the season is in the books to get a pretty good idea how player's final stats will look, we can begin getting a better look at who might get what level compensation.

Let's start by saying that Mo and Posada will be A level, but it doesn't look like either one gets to FA- I think they won't get the big multi-year deals at their age (38 and 36 respectively), but maybe a one year deal with a vesting option?. Pettitte should be an A too, if he opts out (remember that next year is a player option, not a team option)- but if the Yanks are a playoff team, I don't think he leaves. ARod is obviously an A- at this point, its all about finding the right $$.

From the above, unless ARod turns down the Yanks best final offer, I don't see any of the above leaving.

Abreu's strong second half to date has clearly pushed him into the A level of compensation. His case is a VERY hard call. He REALLY hurt the team with his awful first half (though he wasn't alone there), but has been a big part of the turnaround. However, that $16M option is a big figure. On the other hand, there are no good FA corner OF- unless the Yanks are going to gamble on Fukudome from Japan- he will be a FA, but also just had some minor knee surgery. I think it comes down to whether the Yanks think they can use Damon and some prospects in a trade to get another corner OF.

Viscaino has likely moved himself to the edge, if not into A level territory. Remember, comp is determined by a 2 year window. He has 8 wins as a reliever already, along with 6 last year. Not too many relievers get that many over 2 years. I also don't see the Yanks offering the big bucks it will require to keep him- over the past two years, durable relievers have been getting bigger and bigger contracts. I think the Yanks might decide to see if they can catch lighting in a bottle again in a trade this winter, or go inside the system for another arm.

Clemens- I don't see him getting A comp under the new 20% limit, but it IS possible. Otherwise, he's a B. Remember that while the measuring stick is a two year window, it is also pro-rated by appearances. Since Clemens joined the team(s) late over the past two years, his window of reference is smaller, which makes his stats and level higher. I think the Yanks actually might offer arbitration- remember that if he accepts arbitration, he would actually have to go to ST and play from April forward- he would be under contract by accepting. Clemens isn't going to join anyone before ST, or likely before June next year anyway- but someone will likely sign him, so see if you can sneak a draft pick or two for him.

Minky- no comp, and no arbitration.

Jose Molina- a facinating case. I'm not sure that he would even sniff A or B level FA- but he clearly is the best backup C the Yanks have had since Posada was backing up Girardi. With Posada starting next season at 36, I think it is vital that they re-sign Molina to give Posada much more rest in 2008- they need Molina to be able to be a C at least twice a week next year.

Brower, Villone- not a chance they come back- Villone was a B last year, but given his lesser performance this year, I don't see how he can hold that ranking this winter, especially since the B pool is MUCH smaller this year.

So, I think the Yanks let Viscaino go, MAYBE let Abreu go, and definitely let Clemens, Minky, Brower and Villone go.

I think they do their best to keep Posada, ARod, Mo and Molina, but that nothing is ever a given when a player hits FA- even though one would think that Mo and Posada have to think they are Yankees for life (and 2 more years would likely be their last contract anyway).

[IrishYankee]

I know it is a long time till October, but now that enough of the season is in the books to get a pretty good idea how player's final stats will look, we can begin getting a better look at who might get what level compensation.

Let's start by saying that Mo and Posada will be A level, but it doesn't look like either one gets to FA- I think they won't get the big multi-year deals at their age (38 and 36 respectively), but maybe a one year deal with a vesting option?. Pettitte should be an A too, if he opts out (remember that next year is a player option, not a team option)- but if the Yanks are a playoff team, I don't think he leaves. ARod is obviously an A- at this point, its all about finding the right $$.

From the above, unless ARod turns down the Yanks best final offer, I don't see any of the above leaving.

Abreu's strong second half to date has clearly pushed him into the A level of compensation. His case is a VERY hard call. He REALLY hurt the team with his awful first half (though he wasn't alone there), but has been a big part of the turnaround. However, that $16M option is a big figure. On the other hand, there are no good FA corner OF- unless the Yanks are going to gamble on Fukudome from Japan- he will be a FA, but also just had some minor knee surgery. I think it comes down to whether the Yanks think they can use Damon and some prospects in a trade to get another corner OF.

Viscaino has likely moved himself to the edge, if not into A level territory. Remember, comp is determined by a 2 year window. He has 8 wins as a reliever already, along with 6 last year. Not too many relievers get that many over 2 years. I also don't see the Yanks offering the big bucks it will require to keep him- over the past two years, durable relievers have been getting bigger and bigger contracts. I think the Yanks might decide to see if they can catch lighting in a bottle again in a trade this winter, or go inside the system for another arm.

Clemens- I don't see him getting A comp under the new 20% limit, but it IS possible. Otherwise, he's a B. Remember that while the measuring stick is a two year window, it is also pro-rated by appearances. Since Clemens joined the team(s) late over the past two years, his window of reference is smaller, which makes his stats and level higher. I think the Yanks actually might offer arbitration- remember that if he accepts arbitration, he would actually have to go to ST and play from April forward- he would be under contract by accepting. Clemens isn't going to join anyone before ST, or likely before June next year anyway- but someone will likely sign him, so see if you can sneak a draft pick or two for him.

Minky- no comp, and no arbitration.

Jose Molina- a facinating case. I'm not sure that he would even sniff A or B level FA- but he clearly is the best backup C the Yanks have had since Posada was backing up Girardi. With Posada starting next season at 36, I think it is vital that they re-sign Molina to give Posada much more rest in 2008- they need Molina to be able to be a C at least twice a week next year.

Brower, Villone- not a chance they come back- Villone was a B last year, but given his lesser performance this year, I don't see how he can hold that ranking this winter, especially since the B pool is MUCH smaller this year.

So, I think the Yanks let Viscaino go, MAYBE let Abreu go, and definitely let Clemens, Minky, Brower and Villone go.

I think they do their best to keep Posada, ARod, Mo and Molina, but that nothing is ever a given when a player hits FA- even though one would think that Mo and Posada have to think they are Yankees for life (and 2 more years would likely be their last contract anyway).

I think your thinking is solid in every respect here. Your analysis of Vizcaino's situation is spot on I think, and the real value should be to let him go and get the picks. The only thing I would question is if a (1+ vesting) contract would be enough to sign Posada. It might if his loyalties and preference lie solely with the Yankees, but if he's willing to look further afield, he'll definitely be offered at least 2 years gauranteed by another club.
In saying that, I think there is no way the Yankees let him go.
And Molina's signing is a must.

[bmxstreetrider86]

andy pettite is either playing for the yankees next year or retiring


clemens, if he pitches, will do the same as he has done for the past couple years and we are unlikely to offer arbitration




A-rod, abreu, mo, and posada are stone cold locks for type A FA

viz is on the border

[GrouchoNYY]

clemens, if he pitches, will do the same as he has done for the past couple years and we are unlikely to offer arbitration

Why not? Unless that's in his contract, we can protect ourselves. Last time, it was an orgy. He got his Hummer, and we got screwed.

[YASS]

If you guys are letting Vizcaino go, ask him to call Theo, would you, please?

I've been very impressed with him this year. Manage his innings a bit more carefully to keep him sharp without letting him get tired, and he's a solid setup guy.

[girardi08]

If you guys are letting Vizcaino go, ask him to call Theo, would you, please?

I've been very impressed with him this year. Manage his innings a bit more carefully to keep him sharp without letting him get tired, and he's a solid setup guy.

we've all been impressed with vizciano, but these are the kind of guys you sell high on.

we'd love the red sox's first rounder.

[YASS]

we've all been impressed with vizciano, but these are the kind of guys you sell high on.

we'd love the red sox's first rounder.

Well, I'm sort of assuming he's going to be a type B. If he's an A, all bets are off.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Why not? Unless that's in his contract, we can protect ourselves. Last time, it was an orgy. He got his Hummer, and we got screwed.

A) if we offer him arbitration we are potentially locked into a 25 mil dollar contract for him

B) we dont need him as badly as when needed him this year, since we should have a full rotation


honestly, do you think he is gonna pitch anywhere other than NY or houston? cause i dont

[nhyankeefan]

Why not? Unless that's in his contract, we can protect ourselves. Last time, it was an orgy. He got his Hummer, and we got screwed.

How did we get screwed exactly? We already had Houston's first round pick when they signed Pettitte. considering how poorly we were drafting back then it's doubtful an extra second round pick would have meant much.

[GrouchoNYY]

Phil Hughes and Marquez more than made up for Poterson. Another high pick couldn't have hurt. It's too difficult to pinpoint the pick but it could have been a real good one as easily as a stinker.

Two who might have been picked 1 Sup Huston Street
Round 2 (to Houston) Hunter Pence

[Snatch Catch]

If Vizcaino can keep his ERA under 4, I'd be willing to bet he's a Type A.

I'd say he's closer to a Type A than a Type B at this point. Lots of innings, not a lot of hits, good K rates, TONS of wins.

[NYDCYankee]

I can't see how the Yankees can afford to let Viz go with there being zero sure things in the bullpen beyond Mo next year.

[Buzah!]

They can let him go. They're developing next year's pen now. btw, given what they've learned this year, it will be pretty crazy for them to ever give big money to middle relieveres again.

[girardi08]

I can't see how the Yankees can afford to let Viz go with there being zero sure things in the bullpen beyond Mo next year.

vizciano isn't a sure thing either. he is on his way to a career high in innings. the last time he had a career high in innings (2002, 81 innings), he was ineffective the next year.

[NYDCYankee]

Phil Hughes and Marquez more than made up for Poterson. Another high pick couldn't have hurt. It's too difficult to pinpoint the pick but it could have been a real good one as easily as a stinker.

Two who might have been picked 1 Sup Huston Street
Round 2 (to Houston) Hunter Pence

And Reid Brignac, Yovani Gallardo and Dustin Pedroia.


Now I know this is an annoying thing to do, but just imagine if they picked Gallardo instead of Poterson. And Buchholz instead of CJ Henry...

Hughes
Joba
Buchholz
Gallardo
Kennedy

and .

[CallOfTheCrow]

they let Viz go & (assuming) Farnsworth gets traded, the BP would look like (should look like)

Bruney, Britton, Edwar, Mo......some kids getting called up? Whelan, Sanchez (later in the season hopefully), I dunno my brain is in timeout at the moment.

[NYDCYankee]

They can let him go. They're developing next year's pen now. btw, given what they've learned this year, it will be pretty crazy for them to ever give big money to middle relieveres again.

But don't we want as many quality arms as possible. Sure Edwar, Britton, Ohlendorf and Cox and Sanchez (hopefully) are all being developed. But I don't see how keeping around an experienced arm can hurt.

[Snatch Catch]

But don't we want as many quality arms as possible. Sure Edwar, Britton, Ohlendorf and Cox and Sanchez (hopefully) are all being developed. But I don't see how keeping around an experienced arm can hurt.

You're forgetting THE NEXT CLOSER: Mark Melancon.

[NYDCYankee]

You're forgetting THE NEXT CLOSER: Mark Melancon.

Haha. Well, I think he needs a little time to heal up and get acclimated to pro ball, but yeah sure he is in the mix but not until the end of the year. Perhaps he and Humberto can bring a double dose of what Joba is bringing this year in 2008.

[Snatch Catch]

Haha. Well, I think he needs a little time to heal up and get acclimated to pro ball, but yeah sure he is in the mix but not until the end of the year. Perhaps he and Humberto can bring a double dose of what Joba is bringing this year in 2008.

Melancon had his surgery almost a half a year before Sanchez, though. By the time ST 2008 roles around, he will have been on the mend for 17 months. He was considered close to ML ready when he was drafted, so I'd think he stands a decent chance to contribute next year as you said.

[CallOfTheCrow]

how many months has it been for Sanchez?

[Buzah!]

how many months has it been for Sanchez?

Not enough. I think his surgery was late March or in April.

[Buzah!]

But don't we want as many quality arms as possible. Sure Edwar, Britton, Ohlendorf and Cox and Sanchez (hopefully) are all being developed. But I don't see how keeping around an experienced arm can hurt.

We can get 2 picks for Viz. The two picks we got for Tom Gordon are named Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. 2 picks>Viz. Plus all these innings will probably catch up with him soon.

[girardi08]

We can get 2 picks for Viz. The two picks we got for Tom Gordon are named Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. 2 picks>Viz. Plus all these innings will probably catch up with him soon.

if he is indeed a type A, i value 2 first round draft picks over a middle reliever.

[bmxstreetrider86]

i dont think there is any question i would take 2 picks over viz


i just hope it isnt one of the teams with the 15 worst records in baseball




next year might be a HUGE draft for us