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08-24-07 02:06 PM #1
- Join Date
- Jan 2002
Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
I know it is a long time till October, but now that enough of the season is in the books to get a pretty good idea how player's final stats will look, we can begin getting a better look at who might get what level compensation.
Let's start by saying that Mo and Posada will be A level, but it doesn't look like either one gets to FA- I think they won't get the big multi-year deals at their age (38 and 36 respectively), but maybe a one year deal with a vesting option?. Pettitte should be an A too, if he opts out (remember that next year is a player option, not a team option)- but if the Yanks are a playoff team, I don't think he leaves. ARod is obviously an A- at this point, its all about finding the right $$.
From the above, unless ARod turns down the Yanks best final offer, I don't see any of the above leaving.
Abreu's strong second half to date has clearly pushed him into the A level of compensation. His case is a VERY hard call. He REALLY hurt the team with his awful first half (though he wasn't alone there), but has been a big part of the turnaround. However, that $16M option is a big figure. On the other hand, there are no good FA corner OF- unless the Yanks are going to gamble on Fukudome from Japan- he will be a FA, but also just had some minor knee surgery. I think it comes down to whether the Yanks think they can use Damon and some prospects in a trade to get another corner OF.
Viscaino has likely moved himself to the edge, if not into A level territory. Remember, comp is determined by a 2 year window. He has 8 wins as a reliever already, along with 6 last year. Not too many relievers get that many over 2 years. I also don't see the Yanks offering the big bucks it will require to keep him- over the past two years, durable relievers have been getting bigger and bigger contracts. I think the Yanks might decide to see if they can catch lighting in a bottle again in a trade this winter, or go inside the system for another arm.
Clemens- I don't see him getting A comp under the new 20% limit, but it IS possible. Otherwise, he's a B. Remember that while the measuring stick is a two year window, it is also pro-rated by appearances. Since Clemens joined the team(s) late over the past two years, his window of reference is smaller, which makes his stats and level higher. I think the Yanks actually might offer arbitration- remember that if he accepts arbitration, he would actually have to go to ST and play from April forward- he would be under contract by accepting. Clemens isn't going to join anyone before ST, or likely before June next year anyway- but someone will likely sign him, so see if you can sneak a draft pick or two for him.
Minky- no comp, and no arbitration.
Jose Molina- a facinating case. I'm not sure that he would even sniff A or B level FA- but he clearly is the best backup C the Yanks have had since Posada was backing up Girardi. With Posada starting next season at 36, I think it is vital that they re-sign Molina to give Posada much more rest in 2008- they need Molina to be able to be a C at least twice a week next year.
Brower, Villone- not a chance they come back- Villone was a B last year, but given his lesser performance this year, I don't see how he can hold that ranking this winter, especially since the B pool is MUCH smaller this year.
So, I think the Yanks let Viscaino go, MAYBE let Abreu go, and definitely let Clemens, Minky, Brower and Villone go.
I think they do their best to keep Posada, ARod, Mo and Molina, but that nothing is ever a given when a player hits FA- even though one would think that Mo and Posada have to think they are Yankees for life (and 2 more years would likely be their last contract anyway).
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08-24-07 02:39 PM #2
- Join Date
- Mar 2002
- Location
- Tyngsboro, MA
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by Matsui55
In saying that, I think there is no way the Yankees let him go.
And Molina's signing is a must."No, I would not like to reconsider being a Yankee fan, and no, marrying a New Englander should have no bearing on it."
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08-24-07 02:42 PM #3
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
andy pettite is either playing for the yankees next year or retiring
clemens, if he pitches, will do the same as he has done for the past couple years and we are unlikely to offer arbitration
A-rod, abreu, mo, and posada are stone cold locks for type A FA
viz is on the border"Williams could be the Yankees' next great homegrown center fielder. "-BA
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08-24-07 02:49 PM #4
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by bmxstreetrider86
[IMG]http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1401/nyybofs0.th.gif[/IMG]
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08-24-07 02:50 PM #5
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
If you guys are letting Vizcaino go, ask him to call Theo, would you, please?
I've been very impressed with him this year. Manage his innings a bit more carefully to keep him sharp without letting him get tired, and he's a solid setup guy.Watch this space for a pithy new signature, now under construction!
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08-24-07 02:53 PM #6
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by YASS
we'd love the red sox's first rounder.
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08-24-07 02:55 PM #7
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by girardi08
Watch this space for a pithy new signature, now under construction!
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08-24-07 02:56 PM #8
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by GrouchoNYY
B) we dont need him as badly as when needed him this year, since we should have a full rotation
honestly, do you think he is gonna pitch anywhere other than NY or houston? cause i dont"Williams could be the Yankees' next great homegrown center fielder. "-BA
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08-24-07 02:59 PM #9
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by GrouchoNYY
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08-24-07 03:18 PM #10
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Phil Hughes and Marquez more than made up for Poterson. Another high pick couldn't have hurt. It's too difficult to pinpoint the pick but it could have been a real good one as easily as a stinker.
Two who might have been picked 1 Sup Huston Street
Round 2 (to Houston) Hunter Pence[IMG]http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1401/nyybofs0.th.gif[/IMG]
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08-24-07 03:35 PM #11
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
If Vizcaino can keep his ERA under 4, I'd be willing to bet he's a Type A.
I'd say he's closer to a Type A than a Type B at this point. Lots of innings, not a lot of hits, good K rates, TONS of wins.Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
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08-24-07 04:24 PM #12
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
I can't see how the Yankees can afford to let Viz go with there being zero sure things in the bullpen beyond Mo next year.
"Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.
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08-24-07 04:28 PM #13
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
They can let him go. They're developing next year's pen now. btw, given what they've learned this year, it will be pretty crazy for them to ever give big money to middle relieveres again.
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08-24-07 04:29 PM #14
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
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08-24-07 04:30 PM #15
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by GrouchoNYY
Now I know this is an annoying thing to do, but just imagine if they picked Gallardo instead of Poterson. And Buchholz instead of CJ Henry...
Hughes
Joba
Buchholz
Gallardo
Kennedy
and
.
"Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.
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08-24-07 04:31 PM #16
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
they let Viz go & (assuming) Farnsworth gets traded, the BP would look like (should look like)
Bruney, Britton, Edwar, Mo......some kids getting called up? Whelan, Sanchez (later in the season hopefully), I dunno my brain is in timeout at the moment.
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08-24-07 04:33 PM #17
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by Buzah!
"Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.
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08-24-07 04:34 PM #18
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
You're forgetting THE NEXT CLOSER: Mark Melancon.Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
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08-24-07 04:37 PM #19
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by Snatch Catch
"Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.
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08-24-07 04:41 PM #20
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
Melancon had his surgery almost a half a year before Sanchez, though. By the time ST 2008 roles around, he will have been on the mend for 17 months. He was considered close to ML ready when he was drafted, so I'd think he stands a decent chance to contribute next year as you said.Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
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08-24-07 04:48 PM #21
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
how many months has it been for Sanchez?
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08-24-07 04:51 PM #22
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by CallOfTheCrow
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08-24-07 04:53 PM #23
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
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08-24-07 04:54 PM #24
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
Originally Posted by Buzah!
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08-24-07 04:55 PM #25
Re: Thinking Ahead of FA Compensation
i dont think there is any question i would take 2 picks over viz
i just hope it isnt one of the teams with the 15 worst records in baseball
next year might be a HUGE draft for us"Williams could be the Yankees' next great homegrown center fielder. "-BA
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