+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 1 2 3 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 52
  1. #26
    Released Outright DEADSOX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Hi. I'm in... Delaware...

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I don't know the real rule but I'll throw in my $.02 anyway. If the bases are loaded then anywhere you throw is going to be a force out, therefore if you throw home the catcher doesn't have to make the tag, allowing for a definite out. Instead of getting that one definite out the defensive decides to take two definite outs, its likely everyone else would be safe if the play at home is made. So again comes the fielders choice rule. In another situation (1st and 3rd) an RBI is credited because the play at home is not definite, as in the catcher has to make the tag and this depends on the throw to the plate and whether or not the catcher holds onto the ball assuming there is contact, or in other words, the player COULD be safe in this situation whereas a runner could never be safe in a bases loaded situation (assuming no error is made). Hope this makes sense, just something I thought about the situation.

  2. #27
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by RhodeyYankee2638
    So Javy, if there are guys on 1st and 2nd, no outs, and Player A bunts into 6-4-3 double play, should he get credit for a sacrafice since the runner reached 3rd?
    No, because the idea of a sacrafice in that situation is to get the runner over to 3rd with less then 2 outs, bunting into a double play doesn't accomplish that goal.

  3. #28
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by In Mo I Trust
    The expected number of runs when the bases are loaded and there are no outs is 2.254. The expected number of runs when there is a man on third and 2 out is .382.

    Add to that the run that scored on the DP and the expected number of runs scored after hitting into a DP with the bases loaded is 1.382, which is far, far worse than when the bases are loaded with no outs. In this situation if you can trade two outs for a guaranteed run, it is an awful trade.

    (All stats courtesy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook)
    What is the run expectancy of bases loaded with 1 out?

  4. #29
    Big Poppa dabomb2045's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Poughkeepsie, NY

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    No, because the idea of a sacrafice in that situation is to get the runner over to 3rd with less then 2 outs, bunting into a double play doesn't accomplish that goal.
    Lets say you have the bases loaded 0 out situation. When you are that point, you want the big inning. Anything less then 2 runs is pretty unacceptable.

    IMO a player should not get any credit for hitting into a 6-4-3 DP there...even though a run scores. That hurts the team. In fact, I'd rather see the batter pop out or K. He only committs 1 out and still keeps the big inning in play.

  5. #30
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I'm not so sure of that, which is why I am interested in what the run expentancy is with bases loaded and 1 out.

  6. #31
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by In Mo I Trust
    The expected number of runs when the bases are loaded and there are no outs is 2.254. The expected number of runs when there is a man on third and 2 out is .382. Add to that the run that scored on the DP and the expected number of runs scored after hitting into a DP with the bases loaded is 1.382, which is far, far worse than when the bases are loaded with no outs. In this situation if you can trade two outs for a guaranteed run, it is an awful trade.

    (All stats courtesy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook)
    Yeah, but the rules of baseball do not depend on nor acknowledge the Run Expectancy Matrix.

    I know that you were specifically addressing my statement that "a run is generally much more valuable than two outs." While I still think that is a true statement, I agree that the run expectancy is a much more useful anaylsis tool in any given particular situation.

    Rather than get into a long diatribe, let me just apologize and withdraw that statement as clumsy and badly-worded. It has little or no direct bearing on the topic at hand, which is the rulebook. Sorry for stirring up any confusion.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  7. #32
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jasbro
    How do you come to this conclusion? How is it a safe bet that the game is already practically over if a defense chooses the DP over a play at the plate? A fielding team should almost ALWAYS choose a DP over attempting a play at the plate when the bases are loaded, unless it is a tie game or a one-run game in the 8th or 9th inning.
    Regardless of what a statisitcal analysis says a team SHOULD do, in any still-competitive game, the defending team is going to do everything in their power to stop the run from scoring, even if it puts them in a worse position on the run expectancy matrix.

    For good or for ill, the team on the field is not thinking, "oh, they have runners on the corners with one out, which means they are likely to score 1.243 runs this inning so if we can get out it while only allowing one run then we're ahead of the statistical curve..."

    Instead, the team on the field is thinking that they have to find a way to shut these guys down before any damage is done. The team on the field is *planning* to beat the odds, and is generally going for broke to to get every run they can, and to stop every opposing run they can, and they are looking at these runs as one-at-a-time, all-or-nothing events.

    I'll bet long odds that if anyone wants to dig up the data, the above is true in greater than 90% of cases. Again, please understand that I'm not talking about what teams SHOULD do, nor about how the data says they SHOULD act, but about how they actually DO behave and make decisions on the field.

    I know that a lot of sabermetricians look at run creation and run prevention much more dispassionately, but my statement reflects what I think actually happens on the field, which is that I do not think very many real-world defensive players will ever knowingly allow a run to score in a close game in order to gain a statistical strategic advantage.

    FWIW.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  8. #33
    Released Outright
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Westchester-ish

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    I'm not so sure of that, which is why I am interested in what the run expentancy is with bases loaded and 1 out.
    Tangotiger has a chart if you want to look it up.

  9. #34
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by yankeebot
    Tangotiger has a chart if you want to look it up.
    Where? Can't find it.

  10. #35
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    Where? Can't find it.
    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

    You can google "Run expectancy Matrix" for more examples. BP even had a fairly simple formula for guestimating somewhere.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  11. #36
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by yep
    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

    You can google "Run expectancy Matrix" for more examples. BP even had a fairly simple formula for guestimating somewhere.
    Thanks. Although, this really isn't my point, its not a matter of how one situations puts you in a better situation to score more runs as a team. Just because your run expentancy decreases by hitting into a DP, doesn't necessarily mean you should not get an RBI for it. Your run expectancy decreases when you hit a sac fly instead of a single, should you also not get the RBI because you decrease the teams chances of scoring more runs?

  12. #37
    Big Poppa dabomb2045's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Poughkeepsie, NY

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    Thanks. Although, this really isn't my point, its not a matter of how one situations puts you in a better situation to score more runs as a team. Just because your run expentancy decreases by hitting into a DP, doesn't necessarily mean you should not get an RBI for it. Your run expectancy decreases when you hit a sac fly instead of a single, should you also not get the RBI because you decrease the teams chances of scoring more runs?
    IMO the fact that you took 2 outs away with one swing is too defeating to get any positive credit because by doing that you basically killed the inning for your team.

  13. #38
    NYYF Legend

    In Mo I Trust's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Somerville, MA

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    Thanks. Although, this really isn't my point, its not a matter of how one situations puts you in a better situation to score more runs as a team. Just because your run expentancy decreases by hitting into a DP, doesn't necessarily mean you should not get an RBI for it. Your run expectancy decreases when you hit a sac fly instead of a single, should you also not get the RBI because you decrease the teams chances of scoring more runs?
    Actually, the run expectancy for a runner on third and no out and one out, nobody on, and one run in is about equal. The run expectancy for one out and a runner on third is less than one run in and 2 outs, nobody on. The DP rule could be somewhat random, like many of the baseball scoring rules, or it could be a reflection of how bad the DP outcome is, which is backed up by the numbers.

  14. #39
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by In Mo I Trust
    ...The DP rule could be somewhat random, like many of the baseball scoring rules, or it could be a reflection of how bad the DP outcome is, which is backed up by the numbers.
    Just to clarify, if we set aside all notions of value or probabilities and just look at the scoring rules for the purpose intended, it does make a kind of sense:

    RBI is intended to count runs created by the player's bat, or something like that. Theoretically (bear with me here), most runs scored after a batted ball are more or less a determinate outcome of where and how hard the ball was hit. It is taken as axiomatic that the fielders are doing everything possible to prevent the run (and the usually are, I think, regardless of the run expectancy). So unless there is a fielding error, the batter "created" the scoring opportunity with his bat by hitting the ball in such a way that allowed the runner in spite of the best efforts of the fielders.

    Double-plays are an exception to the above because the very fact of a double-play means that the fielders were *not* trying to prevent the run, but were instead going for the extra out. This may or may not have been a wise strategy on their part, it may or may not leave either team in a better or worse situational position to win, etc. The fact remains that it was not the location of the HIT that created the run, but the decision of the fielders to go for the DP.

    The rule is not to "punish" the batter's stats for hitting into a double-play, and it's not making a judgement on whether outs or runs are more valuable. It's simply not counting runs unless they were directly caused by the batted ball.

    It may not be a very good or very useful predictive stat, but it's a legitimate if simple counting stat based on an old-school view of the game. "Old-school" meaning with a sort of belief that players can control their situational performence but for some reason do not try to adjust to create situational outcomes. These days we all recognize that most RBI is at least as attributable to the batters ahead of you in the lineup and a million other factors, but there you have it.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  15. #40
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by yep
    Double-plays are an exception to the above because the very fact of a double-play means that the fielders were *not* trying to prevent the run, but were instead going for the extra out. This may or may not have been a wise strategy on their part, it may or may not leave either team in a better or worse situational position to win, etc. The fact remains that it was not the location of the HIT that created the run, but the decision of the fielders to go for the DP.
    Yes, but its not always that simple, as I mentioned it is not always the fielders choice to choose a double play over getting the runner out at home, it might be the only play they have.

  16. #41
    werkt fir mee Huktonfonix's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    Yes, but its not always that simple, as I mentioned it is not always the fielders choice to choose a double play over getting the runner out at home, it might be the only play they have.
    Scoring rules have to be made on assumptions and probable outcomes. It's unrealistic to make them "fair" in every possible situation, so the goal is to make sure they're fair as often as possible.

    The assumption is that if a defending team has time to get two baserunners on a play, they had time to nail the guy at the plate instead. This isn't always correct, obviously, but more often than not it's a reasonable assumption.
    42 is the answer

    Gets to see even more of AJ Burnett now!

  17. #42
    NYYF Legend


    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Brooklyn

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I found a way where a double play SHOULD net the batter an rbi. I hope this wasn't mentioned. When it is a tie game with the home team batting in the bottom of the 9th. Bases loaded no outs. Double play wins the game. He should get an rbi.

  18. #43

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by THEBOSS84
    I found a way where a double play SHOULD net the batter an rbi. I hope this wasn't mentioned. When it is a tie game with the home team batting in the bottom of the 9th. Bases loaded no outs. Double play wins the game. He should get an rbi.
    why the frig would someone go for a double play in that situation
    Quote Originally Posted by Jersey Yankee
    Who in their right mind would pay several thousand bucks to have some chick poop on their face like a beard?


  19. #44
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by RhodeyYankee2638
    why the frig would someone go for a double play in that situation
    That is exactly why no RBI is counted in a double-play.

    Cheers.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  20. #45
    werkt fir mee Huktonfonix's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by RhodeyYankee2638
    why the frig would someone go for a double play in that situation
    Ya...Manny doesn't play the infield.
    42 is the answer

    Gets to see even more of AJ Burnett now!

  21. #46

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    The notion that you shouldn't get "credit" for doing something "good" because a DP is "bad" is ridiculous. An RBI isn't good or bad in it of itself. It's just a statistic. You drove the runner in, no matter what the fielders chose to do or how badly your hit hurt the team, you should be credited with an RBI (and yes, for the record, I don't love defensive indifference calls on stolen bases).

    It's not up to the scorer to determine the value of a player's actions. Just to document it. To me, it's the same logic as not giving an RBI to a batter because earlier in the game they made a huge error leading to a run scoring. Why should they get credit for something good when they did something bad. Right?

  22. #47
    Released Outright JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I'd also like to mention, that because the fielders don't decide to go home and take the double play isn't necessarily a good decision, that run could be the difference between winning and losing. The fielders don't have a crystal ball and aren't always right.

  23. #48
    You know what I mean.
    Join Date
    Apr 2007

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    Quote Originally Posted by Huktonfonix
    Ya...Manny doesn't play the infield.
    LOL

    Quote Originally Posted by jughead
    The notion that you shouldn't get "credit" for doing something "good" because a DP is "bad" is ridiculous. An RBI isn't good or bad in it of itself. It's just a statistic. You drove the runner in, no matter what the fielders chose to do...
    Once again, to clarify: The "no RBI on DP" scoring rule is NOT "punishment" for hitting into a DP. It reflects an underlying belief of the rule-writers (who may or may not be correct) that the defending team was not trying to stop the run if they went for the DP.

    IOW, the hitter did *not* "drive" the run past the efforts of the defense. Rather, the runner ran home while the defense went for an infield play. Maybe the rule should be changed, maybe it's a bad rule, but it's not just some arbitrary decision to punish hitters' stats for doing something "bad," and it is consistent with the overall scoring rules.
    Walter:I’ll get you a toe. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it.
    Dude:Walter...
    Walter:I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon, with nail polish.

    Red Sox fan, not a troll

  24. #49
    NYYF Legend


    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Poconos, PA

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I always there should be an RBI rewarded. I mean, if you can get one for one out, then why not two?
    I may not have been the best Yankee to put on the pinstripes, but I am the proudest.
    - Billy Martin

  25. #50
    NYYF Legend

    Dave Visbeck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Miss my Ryan, Kristin and Steve. Miss seeing my dad.

    Re: Why no RBI by hitting into a double play?

    I can remember a time there was an RBI awarded ... ... way back in the Series of 1937. Lefty Gomez was pitching in game one of the Series against the Giants. Only one run was scored against him, coming in inning five. That run came on a double play grounder struck by Gus Mancuso.

    How could that RBI have happened? I say throw it out!
    Just a Sox Fan with a Yankee Wife in tow... and with one little Red Sox fan now welcoming her new baby Yankee fan sister into "our" Yankees/Red Sox World.

    Daddy Loves His Baby Angels

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts