New PECOTA's are out

[gdn]

If you are referring to pitching projections it is post #93 in this thread, not sure how to link to it.

This?

I list the pitcher, his age, the team he pitches for his handedness, his results from last year on the major league equivalent ERA+ (league average standardized to ERA = 4.50) and then I calculate his career ERA by taking his raw walk and hit batter rate for the year and replace his MLE's with those numbers (Pitchers generally improve their command for the bulk of their career over the MLE values provided in any given year); then I calculate the difference in ERA+ between the two values and do a cubic transformation to normalize the distribution of the scores (I'll describe this in more detail if you are interested in the rationale).

[MaineSoxFan]

This?

That is my understanding

[captainlad]

I guess my problem with this whole thing is this...
What would you say about these pitchers - I'd like to get your predictions for them: (if you need other data on them, I can give you that.)

Pitcher #1, Age 21, LHP, Between the levels of AA, AAA and MLB has done this:
17-8, 32 starts, 183.2 IP, 146 H, 3.18 ERA, 76 BB, 210 K, 16 HR

Pitcher #2, Age 24, RHP, at A has done this:
13-4, 25 starts, 157.2 IP, 112 H, 2.74 ERA, 55 BB, 180 K, 9 HR

Pitcher #3, Age 20, LHP, at AA has done this:
14-9, 28 starts, 201 IP, 179 H, 3.22 ERA, 89 BB, 171 K, 18 HR

Pitcher #4, Age 22, RHP, at A+ and AA has done this:
9-2, 22 starts, 122 IP, 73 H, 1.40 ERA, 36 BB, 157 K, 7 HR

Pitcher #5, Age 22, RHP, at AA and AAA has done this:
6-9, 25 starts, 140.1 IP, 115 H, 3.46 ERA, 56 BB, 183 K, 15 HR

[captainlad]

The problem with projecting guys in the minors to have ERA+s that make them HOFs isn't the guys, but the method used to do so.

[captainlad]

Using FIP, which is (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K) / IP . (In order to make this number look more like an ERA, you add 3.20 to the outcome.), I came to the result of this (in order)

3.29
2.70
4.00
2.26
3.19

Those are pretty low. What would those be in ERA+?

[apolansk]

Using FIP, which is (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K) / IP . (In order to make this number look more like an ERA, you add 3.20 to the outcome.), I came to the result of this (in order)

3.29
2.70
4.00
2.26
3.19

Those are pretty low. What would those be in ERA+?

You would do 4.50(league average) / ERA * 100

Which would result in ERA+ for each of:

137

167

113

199

141

[captainlad]

Can I please get Hughes2.50's response to this?
Thanks.

[Hughes2.50]

I guess my problem with this whole thing is this...
What would you say about these pitchers - I'd like to get your predictions for them: (if you need other data on them, I can give you that.)

Pitcher #1, Age 21, LHP, Between the levels of AA, AAA and MLB has done this:
17-8, 32 starts, 183.2 IP, 146 H, 3.18 ERA, 76 BB, 210 K, 16 HR

Pitcher #2, Age 24, RHP, at A has done this:
13-4, 25 starts, 157.2 IP, 112 H, 2.74 ERA, 55 BB, 180 K, 9 HR

Pitcher #3, Age 20, LHP, at AA has done this:
14-9, 28 starts, 201 IP, 179 H, 3.22 ERA, 89 BB, 171 K, 18 HR

Pitcher #4, Age 22, RHP, at A+ and AA has done this:
9-2, 22 starts, 122 IP, 73 H, 1.40 ERA, 36 BB, 157 K, 7 HR

Pitcher #5, Age 22, RHP, at AA and AAA has done this:
6-9, 25 starts, 140.1 IP, 115 H, 3.46 ERA, 56 BB, 183 K, 15 HR

Using FIP, which is (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K) / IP . (In order to make this number look more like an ERA, you add 3.20 to the outcome.), I came to the result of this (in order)

3.29
2.70
4.00
2.26
3.19

Those are pretty low. What would those be in ERA+?

On the previous page I posted the calculation that I use to determine the defense independent ERA (i.e., DERA). There you will see it differs slightly with the one you posted.

However, when you are trying to estimate the performance of a minor league pitcher, in terms of performance as translated into major league effectiveness, you need to know what the relevant mle adjustments would be for the variables, before you calculate the fips (or what I call DERA) statistic. So, your question needs to be supplemented with the information which would allow for an mle adjustment to be made to those posted stats.

Hope that helps.

[majorwibi]

On the previous page I posted the calculation that I use to determine the defense independent ERA (i.e., DERA). There you will see it differs slightly with the one you posted.However, when you are trying to estimate the performance of a minor league pitcher, in terms of performance as translated into major league effectiveness, you need to know what the relevant mle adjustments would be for the variables, before you calculate the fips (or what I call DERA) statistic. So, your question needs to be supplemented with the information which would allow for an mle adjustment to be made to those posted stats.
Hope that helps.

I'm curious to see what the projections for those guys posted above are. I've been able to find 4 of them and would be very interested to see how your system stacks up against some historical data given the current set of information presented.

[captainlad]

On the previous page I posted the calculation that I use to determine the defense independent ERA (i.e., DERA). There you will see it differs slightly with the one you posted.However, when you are trying to estimate the performance of a minor league pitcher, in terms of performance as translated into major league effectiveness, you need to know what the relevant mle adjustments would be for the variables, before you calculate the fips (or what I call DERA) statistic. So, your question needs to be supplemented with the information which would allow for an mle adjustment to be made to those posted stats.
Hope that helps.

So what are you saying? Do you want league averages for those players I listed? Or, what? Help me help you.

[Hughes2.50]

So what are you saying? Do you want league averages for those players I listed? Or, what? Help me help you.

mle calculations require league and park effect adjustments. I need to know the league and the team (park) that the pitcher pitched in. It would be preferable if I had the year too, because league and park effects do change from year to year (sometimes more one year than another, but each year is at least slightly different).

Then you realize that we would be working with a one year estimate _ normally I want a trendline over several years.

Still, to do the calculations for any single year I need the information that I mentioned in the first paragraph.

[Munson's 'Stash]

...However, when you are trying to estimate the performance of a minor league pitcher, in terms of performance as translated into major league effectiveness, you need to know what the relevant mle adjustments would be for the variables, before you calculate the fips (or what I call DERA) statistic.

What adjustment? Are these the "scouting" adjustments you make? Wouldn't it be easier and more accurate to calculate the mle's (what I call MiLE's) first? Doesn't making adjustments to the numbers first allow for an unnecessary multiplier that leads to excessive deviation from the mean in the final results?

[Maris*61]

mle calculations require league and park effect adjustments. I need to know the league and the team (park) that the pitcher pitched in. It would be preferable if I had the year too, because league and park effects do change from year to year (sometimes more one year than another, but each year is at least slightly different).

Then you realize that we would be working with a one year estimate _ normally I want a trendline over several years.

Still, to do the calculations for any single year I need the information that I mentioned in the first paragraph.

Exactly. Peripheral DIPS plays a direct correlation to a pitcher's minor league isolated (k/bb ratio). Park effects are necessary to properly determine the coefficient of the denomenator used to calculate PNDIPS/ERA+.