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Mystic Merlyn
01-22-06, 06:57 PM
What are your impressions of Marte and Alex Gonzalez? (Nothing up my sleeve, I'm just curious)

As you've seen, I've been a Marte fan since the moment I read his profile and saw everything he could possibly bring to the table. I hate trading him, but he was the best trading chip the Sox had, and they filled a hole with a solid CF.

As for Gonzalez, he sucks. Not much else to really say.

38Special
01-22-06, 07:29 PM
Huh? Dustin was 21 last year in AA, and Dustin was the second YOUNGEST player in IL last year. The youngest? You guessed it Andy Marte.

Sorry, he turned 22 in August, i was just looking at the age column at TBC. Pedroia was one of the youngest in the IL, but he also did nothing in that league. Thats why i picked AA when I was comparing ages

noneckwilliams
01-22-06, 07:36 PM
Crisp is a good hitter, certainly not great. He could grow into a good leadoff hitter, however. In that respect, it's a good move to put a solid young body in CF and leadoff.
).

Will the Sox lead him off?

Crisp has a .332 lifetime OBP and walks about half as much as he strikes out.

Prickly Pete
01-22-06, 07:38 PM
This pisses me off:


Depending on how right-hander Guillermo Mota's physical goes, Coco Crisp could be Boston's new center fielder sometime this week.The Indians and Boston, according to a major league source, are considering a six-player trade that would send Crisp and two low-level minor leaguers to Boston for third base prospect Andy Marte, Mota and another a minor league pitcher. The Indians would then trade Mota to Philadelphia for outfielder Jason Michaels.There's also a chance that the Indians could keep Mota, if he passes his physical, and send David Riske or Arthur Rhodes to the Phillies. If Mota doesn't pass the Indians and Phillies physical, the three-team deal could be scrubbed.
Cleveland Plain Dealer blog (http://www.cleveland.com/newslogs/plaindealer/index.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_plaindealer/archives/2006_01.html#106958)

The Red Sox should just trade Mota for Michaels and keep Marte. I was holding out some hope that they'd be getting some useful pieces along with Crisp but two "low-level minor leaguers" doesn't sound promising.

Mystic Merlyn
01-22-06, 07:41 PM
Will the Sox lead him off?

Crisp has a .332 lifetime OBP and walks about half as much as he strikes out.

He's also 25, and he's rapidly progressed every year of his career.

NYDCYankee
01-22-06, 07:43 PM
I wonder who that Red Sox pitching prospect is.

keith29
01-22-06, 07:49 PM
Only thing I would be worried about is that he has played 171 our of his 300 games as a leadoff hitter and has only posted a .313 OBP. I assume Francona will attempt to use him as a leadoff?

Actually I think you'd be safer to assume that the Sox will use Youkilis to leadoff with his high OBP. Loretta is a safe bet to bat second leaving Crisp to probably bat 5th or 6th where his higher BA, SLG and speed will be more of an advantage.

Of course this is assuming the trade is a definite, which is also debatable right now.

Hildy910
01-22-06, 07:51 PM
Unless Marte's injury is greater than we think, I dislike this deal, too. Can't wait to hear how Gammons backtracks from his remarks about Marte being a $100 million player.

Mark19
01-22-06, 08:08 PM
If all it would take to get Michaels is Mota, Riske or Rhodes, I think it might be pretty devious of the Yanks to offer Sturtze and Proctor/Depaula for Michaels just to torpedo the entire deal.

scull567
01-22-06, 08:12 PM
I have a hard time believing that Michaels could be had for just Mota. If that was the case, one would think half the teams in baseball would be in on this offering a decent bullpen arm for him.

SouthernBoSox
01-22-06, 08:19 PM
Hopefully they are some pretty freaking good low-level players. If we get two VERY GOOD HIGH PROMISING prospects then I will be satisfied with the deal even though I don't love it.

SouthernBoSox
01-22-06, 08:21 PM
Unless Marte's injury is greater than we think, I dislike this deal, too. Can't wait to hear how Gammons backtracks from his remarks about Marte being a $100 million player.

Gammons didn't say that. He said that Scott Boras said it. You got to watch Gammo he is tricky, he always leaves these little ways out of somthing he said. God I love him.

TheGameEpisode2
01-22-06, 08:23 PM
If all it would take to get Michaels is Mota, Riske or Rhodes, I think it might be pretty devious of the Yanks to offer Sturtze and Proctor/Depaula for Michaels just to torpedo the entire deal.

I was thinking the EXACT same thing.

38Special
01-22-06, 08:27 PM
Hopefully they are some pretty freaking good low-level players. If we get two VERY GOOD HIGH PROMISING prospects then I will be satisfied with the deal even though I don't love it.
Yeah i definitely see them sending Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers to be nice.

Prickly Pete
01-22-06, 08:28 PM
Yeah i definitely see them sending Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers to be nice.
You never know. Mark Shapiro is one of those special people with special family values.

SouthernBoSox
01-22-06, 08:29 PM
Yeah i definitely see them sending Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers to be nice.

There is more then just those to. Whats that one guy they drafted a year or two ago. An OF . . Snyder? Brian Snyder? Ben Snyder? Oh hell I'm to lazy to look it up. Anyway He is pretty good. I have to admit I don't know much about Cleveland's system outside the top 5.

TommyK8
01-22-06, 08:33 PM
This is a good deal for Boston with the mindset that Damon was gone. I think (overall cost and this is subjective as player ability is just as much a cost to me as the $$$) I would have signed Damon (assuming the rumor someone earlier said that Damon would have signed for 4/46, but that's not a hard fact) and kept Marte and Mota. Someone mentioned Boston's payroll was at $116 million which leaves them $19 million to match their 2005 payroll. But since Boston CHOSE not to re-sign Damon and it's now 1/22, I think Boston did a very good job.
I agree with this. The Red Sox were between a rock and a hard place. It's January 22. Crisp has improved each year, and may not have hit his peak. Marte never played one game for the Red Sox, so this trade amounts to exactly Renteria, Mota and $11 million for Crisp and whatever minor leaguers they get back. Assuming that Crisp gets $3 million in 2006, the Red Sox sign Gonzalez for $4 million, and pay $3 million of Renteria's salary, that's a total cost of $10 million for shortstop and center. This compares to at least $25 million for the combination of Damon, Mota, and Renteria, and the Red Sox got much younger in center and a couple years younger at short. That $15 million can be spent elsewhere, maybe not now, but perhaps at midseason, or next year's free agent market.

I understand those who think the Red Sox should have kept Marte, but for those who want to field the best team possible in 2006, this trade (if it goes through) is the best the Sox could have hoped for at this late stage of the offseason.

keg411
01-22-06, 08:38 PM
Why would Cleveland have to send anything else (except maybe for Michaels)? They're giving up a really good young player for a prospect. Yes, Marte may be a high level prospect, but Crisp is an excellent player -- it's not like the Indians NEED to move him. But maybe I think that at this point Crisp > Marte's upside. Because Marte could easily flop, whereas Crisp is young and proven.

If Boston gets anything more than a B-C prospect in this (i.e. not in the top 10 or near it), I'll be pissed at Shapiro (who is a very good GM). My guess is that Boston's additional pitching prospect is also a B-C one and not Lester/Papelbon or anyone like that.

27IsNext
01-22-06, 08:40 PM
The Red Sox just turned the bust that was Edgar Renteria and a throw in reliever who wasn't good last year and has attitude problems into a 26 year old CFer who has improved every year he has been in the league. They have control of him through 2009 also. I think that's a fantastic trade by the Red Sox. We got a CFer on the decline and paid him big money while they got a CFer who will get better and is cheaper. In fact, last season alone Crisp was better than Damon. I know the Yankees couldn't have matched this deal for Crisp, but I have to say it's a great deal for the Sox.

edit: And Alex Gonzalez is awful. I don't understand that move.

But that's exactly the problem. We couldn't have matched the deal. To make matters worse, it now looks like the market for guys like Jason Michaels was even worse than originally thought. Cashman "negotiated" (if that's what you want to call sticking it to Boras) brilliantly, and we locked up an outfielder to compliment Matsui for the same amount Hideki got. That gives us two of any of our minor league outfielders the next four years to show us something. All this talk about Damon's decline, but I'm just not seeing him becoming Bernie part 2. He's an INFINTELY better judge of flyballs than Bernie. I also highly doubt that he'll ever be as bad as Bernie was offensively last year during his stay here.

SouthernBoSox
01-22-06, 08:41 PM
Why would Cleveland have to send anything else (except maybe for Michaels)? They're giving up a really good young player for a prospect. Yes, Marte may be a high level prospect, but Crisp is an excellent player -- it's not like the Indians NEED to move him. But maybe I think that at this point Crisp > Marte's upside. Because Marte could easily flop, whereas Crisp is young and proven.

If Boston gets anything more than a B-C prospect in this (i.e. not in the top 10 or near it), I'll be pissed at Shapiro (who is a very good GM). My guess is that Boston's additional pitching prospect is also a B-C one and not Lester/Papelbon or anyone like that.

Apparently Shapiro REALLY likes Marte and has tried to get him many times.

destiNY
01-22-06, 08:46 PM
You're basing your conclusion on a premise which the Red Sox FO obviously doesn't share. They are clearly preparing to compete this year.

And why not? The lineup loses very little run production from last year, the starting rotation (if healthy) is a huge improvement from last year, and the bullpen is also much deeper and better, especially if Foulke returns at anything close to full strength.

To conclude that the Red Sox won't compete this year assumes multiple failures in multiple players. It's certainly possible, but I think I'd let them actually occur before crying "uncle" on the '06 season.

They will certainly compete this year...with the blue jays.. :lol:

Sorry, anyway they did get better from this deal, but the gonzalez and crisp signing still makes this team less competitive than last years team.

Your rotation as with the yankees ("if healthy") is saying a lot with the oldies of Wells and Schilling, and the plauged injury career of Beckett who by the way is moving from the NL to the AL east.

keg411
01-22-06, 08:49 PM
Apparently Shapiro REALLY likes Marte and has tried to get him many times.

I doubt he likes him that much that he would give up a great outfielder PLUS top prospects -- if he was willing to be held hostage for Marte, I'm sure he could've made a deal with Atlanta.

Personally, I think the trade sounds fair as stands no matter how much Shapiro likes the player. He isn't stupid. If any of their top prospects go to Boston, I'm going to re-evaluate my position on him as a GM.

But again, I don't really like Marte that much (and lean towards Cleveland getting hosed) -- although that's based on Atlanta's general talent evaluation. I don't care if they loved Renteria -- Scheurholz is one of the best GM's (if not THE best) in the game even without the "Moneyball" philosophy.

Stashed_in_the_South
01-22-06, 09:22 PM
They will certainly compete this year...with the blue jays.. :lol:

Sorry, anyway they did get better from this deal, but the gonzalez and crisp signing still makes this team less competitive than last years team.

Your rotation as with the yankees ("if healthy") is saying a lot with the oldies of Wells and Schilling, and the plauged injury career of Beckett who by the way is moving from the NL to the AL east.

I think the Yanks have the best offense in baseball, but they have a potentially disastrous pitching staff ; it could be comically bad. Seriously.

I ran a VORP for it off the 2005 projections in BP, and I'm waiting for the new 2006 projections to come out, but as it stands, the Yanks pitching staff has the largest attrition rate in baseball. Of course, that's relative, because the better your set-up stats, the farther you have a chance to fall.

However, anyone who says that the Yanks' staff as constructed is ready to carry off the AL East and cruise through the post-season is deluding themselves. It's surprising that the general atmosphere of the board is that "stand-pat on the rotation" is acceptable.

Crisp, at age 26, is probably better than Damon next year at 32. Crisp's a better defender, and his stats were put up in Cleveland, not Fenway, where Damon's were. Boston basically got Crisp for Renteria, who was only a tad above replacement value, and played defense BELOW replacement value. In other words, just about ANYONE they stick at short is an upgrade over Renteria.

Boston added an ace-type pitcher and has six proven major-league startes, only one of which (Schilling) has major injury questions, and who is also practically guaranteed to best his performance of last year; meanwhile the Yank's ace is 40+ years old and may slide further from his relative-to-dollars mediocrity of 2005.

The Yanks could have a poor season in 2006, and may be scrambling for starting pitching at the deadline again. They really could, indeed, be surprisingly bad.

38Special
01-22-06, 09:30 PM
I think the Yanks have the best offense in baseball, but they have a potentially disastrous pitching staff; it could be comically bad. Seriously.

I ran a VORP for it off the 2005 projections in BP, and I'm waiting for the new 2006 projections to come out, but as it stands, the Yanks pitching staff has the largest attrition rate in baseball. Of course, that's relative, because the better your set-up stats, the farther you have a chance to fall.

However, anyone who says that the Yanks' staff as constructed is ready to carry off the AL East and cruise through the post-season is deluding themselves. It's surprising that the general atmosphere of the board is that "stand-pat on the rotation" is acceptable.


Well, Chacon and Wang had great years last year including the playoffs, and Randy has given little reason to worry about his health. Mussina is getting worse with age, but hes a competent 4th starter. The wild card is #5, but i expect either Pavano or Wright to step up

PECOTA and zIPS are cute tools but they arent reality

Johnny O
01-22-06, 09:39 PM
But that's exactly the problem. We couldn't have matched the deal. To make matters worse, it now looks like the market for guys like Jason Michaels was even worse than originally thought. Cashman "negotiated" (if that's what you want to call sticking it to Boras) brilliantly, and we locked up an outfielder to compliment Matsui for the same amount Hideki got. That gives us two of any of our minor league outfielders the next four years to show us something. All this talk about Damon's decline, but I'm just not seeing him becoming Bernie part 2. He's an INFINTELY better judge of flyballs than Bernie. I also highly doubt that he'll ever be as bad as Bernie was offensively last year during his stay here.

Not being as bad as Bernie was last year doesn't justify the Damon contract. Damon will be OK, maybe very good for a year or so (maybe not though, his career numbers pale in comparison to Bernie). There is no doubt he will decline, possibly sharply, and he had a few bad seasons in his supposed prime (in 2001 his .687 OPS was lower than Bernie's .688 last year). He could easily post a .345 OBP next season, which would make him a less than optimal lead-off hitter. Let's just hope he's good enough the next two years to earn his salary, and doesn't decline to the point where he is nearly useless.

Cold Shad
01-22-06, 09:41 PM
If all it would take to get Michaels is Mota, Riske or Rhodes, I think it might be pretty devious of the Yanks to offer Sturtze and Proctor/Depaula for Michaels just to torpedo the entire deal.
De paula got shelled this winter In the Dominican. Sturtze is old expensive And coming off injury Questions. Proctor has never done anything at the Major leaque level. The worst part about this trade for the Yankees is that RHodes could be going to the NL. The Phils want to move Madsen To the starting Rotation and need A set-upGuyto replace him.

MiamiKat
01-22-06, 09:52 PM
I think the Yanks have the best offense in baseball, but they have a potentially disastrous pitching staff ; it could be comically bad. Seriously.

I ran a VORP for it off the 2005 projections in BP, and I'm waiting for the new 2006 projections to come out, but as it stands, the Yanks pitching staff has the largest attrition rate in baseball.
Sounds like you're starting with a conclusion and working backwards to find projections that will confirm it.

(Which isn't to say there's no chance they'll end up being comically bad -- the Red Sox pitching staff has a series of major question marks too, BTW -- but as 38Special said, there are reasons why the Yankee rotation doesn't, for now, look as bad as you're hoping they'll be.)

Hildy910
01-22-06, 09:54 PM
Gammons didn't say that. He said that Scott Boras said it. You got to watch Gammo he is tricky, he always leaves these little ways out of somthing he said. God I love him.

Damn, you're right! Those tricky reporters--always hiding behind somebody else's words! :)

terminator
01-22-06, 10:00 PM
I have a hard time believing that Michaels could be had for just Mota. If that was the case, one would think half the teams in baseball would be in on this offering a decent bullpen arm for him.

I agree. Here the Sox are considering that they might have to settle for a 4th outfielder in return for Wells, and meanwhile they could simply trade Mota and get Michaels in return?

SouthernBoSox
01-22-06, 10:05 PM
I agree. Here the Sox are considering that they might have to settle for a 4th outfielder in return for Wells, and meanwhile they could simply trade Mota and get Michaels in return?
Wait what? 4th OF for Wells? I thought they weren't going to trade him. If they could get Michaels for just Mota I'm sure it would have been done. There is somthing that we don;t know, as usual.

Mark19
01-22-06, 10:09 PM
De paula got shelled this winter In the Dominican. Sturtze is old expensive And coming off injury Questions. Proctor has never done anything at the Major leaque level. The worst part about this trade for the Yankees is that RHodes could be going to the NL. The Phils want to move Madsen To the starting Rotation and need A set-upGuyto replace him.

Rhodes is not a particularly effective set-up man anymore. Riske is very talented and Mota has good stuff but has been inconsistent. Depending on which reliever the Phillies get, the Yanks could probably match or top the offer.

Cold Shad
01-22-06, 10:10 PM
Michaels is on Probation for the next six Months for assaulting a police officerlast summer at a bar in Philly. This may have changed the asking price. He has a couple of alcohol related incidents including a recent hassle at a poolhall in FL.

JeffWeaverFan
01-22-06, 10:18 PM
Yeah i definitely see them sending Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers to be nice.
Speaking of which, how does Jeremy Sowers project? I watched him a lot here at Vandy.

surge511
01-22-06, 10:47 PM
Boston added an ace-type pitcher and has six proven major-league startes, only one of which (Schilling) has major injury questions, and who is also practically guaranteed to best his performance of last year; meanwhile the Yank's ace is 40+ years old and may slide further from his relative-to-dollars mediocrity of 2005.

The Yanks could have a poor season in 2006, and may be scrambling for starting pitching at the deadline again. They really could, indeed, be surprisingly bad.

I agree that Boston's rotation could be good and the Yankee's could be terrible - if the best and worst case scenario's happen for the teams.

However, it's not like Boston's rotation is a sure-fire machine, either. Imagine:
Schilling can't come back from his recent injury problems
Clement follows up on his putrid 2nd half of 2k5
Beckett has been on the dl 11 times in 5 years - enough said
Wells doesn't want to be there, and lets his age get to him
Wakefield is almost 40 - he throws knuckles, but could break down
Arroyo continues his average at best career
The rookies take some adjusting time, and can't carry the team right away
And Foulke can't come back from his injuries, which forces Papelbon into the pen, further weakening the rotation.

The Yankees have big question marks with lots of pitchers, too, but it seems to me that the Sox have as many, if not more, questions to answer about their rotation than the Yankees.

ryanthe13th
01-22-06, 10:53 PM
Signing Alex Gonzalez? I thought they already had an incarnation of him on the team going by the name of Alex Cora. It's pretty apparent that the Sox are desperate at this point. Trading Andy Marte and Guilmero Mota for CoCo Crisp is definitely a steal for the Indians. They already have a solid young outfield anchored by Grady Sizemore. Boston is just giving them a future star in Marte, who will probably be MLB ready by the time Aaron Boone is departing. The Sox addressed issues with this deal, but I think they gave up too much.

38Special
01-22-06, 11:06 PM
Speaking of which, how does Jeremy Sowers project? I watched him a lot here at Vandy.

FB isnt that great but hes got the command and secondary stuff. Unfortunately hes not a lefty. I'd compare him to Paul Byrd.

NYDCYankee
01-22-06, 11:12 PM
Boston added an ace-type pitcher and has six proven major-league startes, only one of which (Schilling) has major injury questions.

Do you not think that Beckett is a major injury question? And that while Clement might not have a physical injury he might have a mental injury after being hit by that line drive, is production sure reflects that.

To be honest with you the only Red Sox starter I don't have questions about is Papelbon and the poor guy might not even crack the starting five. Oh well.

CTSoxFan
01-22-06, 11:55 PM
This pisses me off:

Cleveland Plain Dealer blog (http://www.cleveland.com/newslogs/plaindealer/index.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_plaindealer/archives/2006_01.html#106958)

The Red Sox should just trade Mota for Michaels and keep Marte. I was holding out some hope that they'd be getting some useful pieces along with Crisp but two "low-level minor leaguers" doesn't sound promising.

At the age of 25, Crisp has already played a full season as a starter for a pennant contender, and played it well. He's a likely improvement over Damon, and is just entering his prime.

At the age of 29, Michaels has yet to amass as many as 300 at-bats in a season, and has the word "probation" stapled to his resume.

It sucks losing Marte, but trying to figure out whether Crisp or Michaels will be a better center fielder is sort of a no-brainer. If the Sox had a blue-chip prospect at center field waiting in the wings, I might like Michaels as a flyer and a one-year stopgap, but the acquisition of Crisp is an opportunity to put a very good young player in place for the next several seasons.

The Rotoworld assessment of the Plain Dealer report also grouses that the Red Sox are now "depending" on a positive contribution from Lowell. Perhaps this is more true than it was a few days ago when Marte was waiting in the wings, but Lowell's failure wouldn't be that complicated a problem to fix. Corner infielders won't be that hard to find near the trade deadline, and the Sox can go out and acquire a 3Bman to replace Lowell, or a 1Bman to replace Youkilis, who could slide back across the diamond and play third.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 12:03 AM
They will certainly compete this year...with the blue jays.. :lol:

Sorry, anyway they did get better from this deal, but the gonzalez and crisp signing still makes this team less competitive than last years team.

Your rotation as with the yankees ("if healthy") is saying a lot with the oldies of Wells and Schilling, and the plauged injury career of Beckett who by the way is moving from the NL to the AL east.

This is once again an assumption of every doomsday scenario coming true for the Red Sox. Wells is only a 50-50 bet to even be on the team, so my concerns about his age aren't a real issue. But yes, somewhere in the list of seven capable starting pitchers, I do expect the Red Sox to find five that will allow them to remain competitive. And Jon Lester and Lenny DiNardo will be waiting in the wings in Pawtucket.

As for the offense, I'll wait to see what kind of lineup Francona puts together, but there are a few different permutations that allow for the potential of similar run production to last year. Of course, if we assume that Crisp will mysteriously be unable to play "in the spotlight" of Boston (despite playing successfully on a playoff contender last year), Lowell is cooked, Youkilis can't really hit (despite the preponderance of evidence that he can), and the Red Sox won't be able to replace Damon at the top of the order (despite having at least two or three hitters with a similar or superior ability to get on base), then yeah, I guess we might as well be playing for 2007. Or 2008.

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 12:20 AM
FB isnt that great but hes got the command and secondary stuff. Unfortunately hes not a lefty. I'd compare him to Paul Byrd.
Yeah, I remember his fastball wasn't great but he's got a fantastic curveball. He is a lefty though. I saw him pitch a few times here at Vandy and the two things I remember were 1. He's got a great curve and 2. He's a lefty.

DaSwing
01-23-06, 12:57 AM
As long as Boston isn't paying any of his salary, Mota is nothing in that deal.

The Sox already replaced him when they signed Tavarez. I think he'll probably be better than Mota and certainly cheaper next year. Cleveland should've signed him instead.

DaSwing
01-23-06, 01:19 AM
Originally Posted by 38Special
Using my l33t photoshop skeelz, i superimposed Crisp's 2005 hit chart at Jacobs Field over Fenway. Depending on how high hit the doubles were hit, there are possibly 4 doubles that could have been home runs. It doesnt look like he would have gained anything in RF, and much of his game is speed, hitting the ball the opposite way. He could actually be hurt in power by a move to Fenway, as he is helped by the massive amount of field in LF, as he pokes the ball into the corner and turns them easily into doubles.
http://tinypic.com/mcd5c5.jpg



Looking at your chart, it looks like there are another four or five fly outs at Jacobs that would likely have become doubles or home runs at Fenway.


If he just 'pokes' the ball into the corner in Fenway... and he's fast, he'll get an easy double too.

I dunno about all your charts andanalysis though. A big part of this guy's game is speed.... but he has ZERO triples?

My instincts tell me if he hits in the 2 hole for the Sox, he'll have a pretty spectatular year.

DaSwing
01-23-06, 01:37 AM
He's talking about as a leadoff hitter, where he'd most likely end up if he comes to the Sox.

Look at "By batting order"

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6983&type=batting3

Obviously most of those ABs weren't last year.

Based on those stats I really think the Sox should hit him 6th then he'd be a sure-fire HOF'er and possibly the greatest player of all-time!

New Murderer's Row
01-23-06, 01:41 AM
well crisp is a little more valuable than larry andersen, but here's hoping marte becomes the next bagwell :evil:

DaSwing
01-23-06, 01:50 AM
Crisp is a good hitter, certainly not great. He could grow into a good leadoff hitter, however. In that respect, it's a good move to put a solid young body in CF and leadoff.

I think in the long term, it will be an upgrade over Damon. But there are still questions to be answered in terms of his defensive ability in CF and his ability to blossom into the hitter he COULD be. In 2-3 years, this trade will either look great or so-so.

Either way, the Sox have filled their holes with decent players (assuming they get both Crisp and Gonzalez). They are ready to start the season with a good squad and are better than they were two weeks ago.

But let's not get carried away and think that Crisp is the second coming of...errr...Johnny Damon (the 2001-2004 version).

Really? Have you even looked at Damon's stats for 2001 - 2004?

I expect him to be WAY WAY better than 2001 Damon.
Significantly better than 2003 Damon.
Vegas would probably say there is better than 50% chance he'll surpass 2002 Damon.
Give him an outside shot at 2004 Damon.

4 of the last 5 years Damon has had a lower OPS than Crisp had last year.

I will give you that Damon and Crisp are different players. I don't see Crisp as a leadoff guy... more of a 2/5/6 hitter.

NYDCYankee
01-23-06, 02:07 AM
Rosenthal

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5271398

Says Mota's arm could kill the deal. Gonzalez's signing also could hinge on the completion of the deal.

DaSwing
01-23-06, 02:11 AM
Rosenthal

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5271398

Says Mota's arm could kill the deal. Gonzalez's signing also could hinge on the completion of the deal.

Oooh. First time I've seen a picture of Marte.

I say scrap the deal and keep Marte, he looks badass!

NYDCYankee
01-23-06, 03:18 AM
Looks like there is a lot more going down then we thought:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/23/source_sox_agree_to_crisp_deal/


Source: Sox agree to Crisp deal
Six players to be involved in swap
By Chris Snow, Globe Staff | January 23, 2006

The Red Sox, according to a source with knowledge of the deal, have reached agreement in principle with the Indians on a complex six-player deal centered upon 26-year-old Coco Crisp that also will bring to town a quality setup man in 28-year-old David Riske and young catcher Josh Bard.

Boston will ship top prospect Andy Marte, reliever Guillermo Mota, and catcher Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland. The deal is contingent upon physicals. The only player in the deal with a known and recent injury issue is Mota, who missed a month last season with the Marlins because of inflammation in his throwing elbow.

It's possible Mota's medical records could raise enough concern that the deal would be killed or reworked. However, consummating the deal has required more than 75 phone calls between the clubs in the last month, and it's likely, given the time and energy committed, that if a problem were to be detected during a physical, the teams would try to revise the package of players.

Because of the need to exchange and carefully process medical records, the deal is unlikely to be announced any sooner than the middle or end of this week.

Now I really like this deal for the Sox. Including Shoppach a player that seemed trapped and getting Riske and Bard in return is a brilliant move particularly since Bard will be a very capable back up for Varitek.

parkerstrong
01-23-06, 03:34 AM
De paula got shelled this winter In the Dominican. Sturtze is old expensive And coming off injury Questions. Proctor has never done anything at the Major leaque level. The worst part about this trade for the Yankees is that RHodes could be going to the NL. The Phils want to move Madsen To the starting Rotation and need A set-upGuyto replace him.

How is Sturze expensive?

NYDCYankee
01-23-06, 03:41 AM
How is Sturze expensive?

He costs the Yankees games. :P :P :P

LuckyLopez
01-23-06, 04:27 AM
I dunno about all your charts andanalysis though. A big part of this guy's game is speed.... but he has ZERO triples?

Well, I believe 38's chart was just '05 home numbers. Crisp hit 4 triples on the road last year and has 4 career triples in Jacobs (and 10 road ones). In '03 he had 3 out of 6 at home. So they are a part of his game and the lack of them last season was probably just somewhat random. Although there's a big enough gap on the career numbers that I'd guess Jacobs probably factors in somewhat.

The same might be true about the HR numbers since he's fairly even for his career (16 home/19 road) but there's a big discrepency last season (4 home/12 road).

parkerstrong
01-23-06, 05:14 AM
He costs the Yankees games. :P :P :P

LOL! :) :) :) He did very well early last year, but as the season went on I agree. However, I dont think in this current money market for relievers he is expensive though.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:22 AM
At the age of 25, Crisp has already played a full season as a starter for a pennant contender, and played it well. He's a likely improvement over Damon, and is just entering his prime.

At the age of 29, Michaels has yet to amass as many as 300 at-bats in a season, and has the word "probation" stapled to his resume.

It sucks losing Marte, but trying to figure out whether Crisp or Michaels will be a better center fielder is sort of a no-brainer. If the Sox had a blue-chip prospect at center field waiting in the wings, I might like Michaels as a flyer and a one-year stopgap, but the acquisition of Crisp is an opportunity to put a very good young player in place for the next several seasons.

The Rotoworld assessment of the Plain Dealer report also grouses that the Red Sox are now "depending" on a positive contribution from Lowell. Perhaps this is more true than it was a few days ago when Marte was waiting in the wings, but Lowell's failure wouldn't be that complicated a problem to fix. Corner infielders won't be that hard to find near the trade deadline, and the Sox can go out and acquire a 3Bman to replace Lowell, or a 1Bman to replace Youkilis, who could slide back across the diamond and play third.
It's funny how Sox fans are already stating that Crisp is an upgrade over Damon.

NYDCYankee
01-23-06, 05:39 AM
LOL! :) :) :) He did very well early last year, but as the season went on I agree. However, I dont think in this current money market for relievers he is expensive though.

I agree. It was just the perfect time for an early morning joke.

noneckwilliams
01-23-06, 06:22 AM
It's funny how Sox fans are already stating that Crisp is an upgrade over Damon.

I know - it's now a given that Crisp is twice the player Damon could ever hope to be. Kind of un-Sox like to acquire a guy with a .332 career OBP (but of course he will learn to draw walks whereas say Robbie Cano is destined to never learn plate discipline).

Anyway the Sox are overpaying for a good outfielder and I hope the deal goes thru. However the natives at SOSH are not happy with this deal and I suspect Theo and John Henry are monitoring the reaction over there quite closely. When the deal falls thru Marte will go back to being the next Mike Schmidt.

NYDCYankee
01-23-06, 06:27 AM
When the deal falls thru Marte will go back to being the next Mike Schmidt.

I for one long for the days when Hanley Ramirez was the next Honus Wagner.

justinvarnes
01-23-06, 07:00 AM
Really? Have you even looked at Damon's stats for 2001 - 2004?

I expect him to be WAY WAY better than 2001 Damon.
Significantly better than 2003 Damon.
Vegas would probably say there is better than 50% chance he'll surpass 2002 Damon.
Give him an outside shot at 2004 Damon.

4 of the last 5 years Damon has had a lower OPS than Crisp had last year.

I will give you that Damon and Crisp are different players. I don't see Crisp as a leadoff guy... more of a 2/5/6 hitter.


Of course I have. You can EXPECT him to be all that you dream he could be. That's part of the fun of it.

But Crisp has YET to carry a decent OBP and has YET to show signs of a skilled leadoff hitter.

Granted, Damon isn't a .400 OBP guy himself, but if you've watched the 2 play alot, you'd realize that as a leadoff hitter ---- and I've read things that say he would leadoff and that Youkilis would NOT leadoff, if that is wrong and they bat him in the 6-7 hole, then you can't compare these two players as closely as I am, but for now, go with me here --- he still has some growing to become what Damon was to the Sox. Offensively.

Defensively? No contest. Until last year, Damon posted a GREAT UZR in CF and still is an excellent reader of fly balls. No arm of course, but in terms of coming in on balls, tracking balls to the wall, covering Manny's ground, etc. Damon was and probably still is excellent.

Crisp has so far been a mediocre CF. so says the stats, so say the scouts, so say the Indians. He was a very good LF this year. I suspect he will be a better CF than his early track record indicates, but he's got an AWFUL lot of growing to do to be the defensive player Damon was over that time.

Can he do it? sure he can. Will he do it? it's possible but not likely.

But really, none of this matters in terms of what the Sox could do or did do. The Sox don't have the 2001-2004 Damon. They had a "for rent" sign in CF, so Crisp is a great pickup for them.

In other words, I'm not suggesting that 2006-2009 Damon will be better than 2006-2009 Crisp (could go either way depending on Crisp's growth and Damon's decline) I'm merely suggesting that the Sox offense might not be as productive as the last few years with Crisp leading off.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:22 AM
I know - it's now a given that Crisp is twice the player Damon could ever hope to be. Kind of un-Sox like to acquire a guy with a .332 career OBP (but of course he will learn to draw walks whereas say Robbie Cano is destined to never learn plate discipline).

Anyway the Sox are overpaying for a good outfielder and I hope the deal goes thru. However the natives at SOSH are not happy with this deal and I suspect Theo and John Henry are monitoring the reaction over there quite closely. When the deal falls thru Marte will go back to being the next Mike Schmidt.

Thats because SOSH thinks Marte is GOD! No really they think he is the second coming.
Its a really good deal for Cleveland, and a decent deal for the Sox. But Indians fans arn't happy with it because they thought they were in the "win-now" boat, Sox overpaid but got some good players. Red Sox bullpen is going to be SICK! I think we have to many to be honest. We are going to have to pull the starting Pitcher in the fifth.

38Special
01-23-06, 07:34 AM
Shapiro has made out like a bandit before, and this is not far from it

He trades

Coco for Marte
Riske for Mota - Riske had a better year, but hes got a low strikeout rate and arguably less upside than Mota. The plus is that hes making 1.4 million less than Mota so they can spend it on Alex Gonzalez :lol:. It's not a bad move when you consider that Riske is more likely to have a better year than Mota due to Mota's issues next year, but why are they bringing back another reliever? The pen isnt any less crowded and Riske is a year from FA just like Mota was.
Bard for Shoppach - Equal defensively but Shoppach is 2 years younger and hasnt tanked at the major league level yet. I dont like Shoppach at all, but Bard is bad

Spiker101
01-23-06, 07:39 AM
I'm uncomfortable talking about this deal because I've got my doubts it'll go through, but if it should I think Yankees are missing the boat when they focus on what this does for the Sox. All this does for the Sox is put them back where they were going into last season, that is a 90-95 win team, and a wild card contender.

Instead, Yanks fans should be concentrating on the team the Indians will be trotting out there on Opening Day 2007.
Martinez
Peralta
Hafner
Sizemore
Marte
Broussard
Will be just about the best core of good young hitters to come along in a long, long time. The Indians still lack a major arm in the rotation and a lights out closer, but the 2006 off season is shaping up to be the best for free agents pitchers in a while.

Cleveland has a chance to be scary good by '07.

38Special
01-23-06, 07:43 AM
I find it funny that you include Broussard

justinvarnes
01-23-06, 07:46 AM
True, Cleveland and Chicago could possibly be the next New York/Boston.

But Red Sox and Yankee fans can't worry about teams they'll only see 6 times until the postseason. First and foremost, they have to win their own games and their own division, which is why these two teams are focused on each other.

Spiker101
01-23-06, 07:49 AM
I find it funny that you include Broussard

I did put him last:D
But I do like him better than most people. He appears to me to be the kind of guy who can learn, but we'll see. In any case, decent first basemen are a dime a dozen.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 07:51 AM
Shapiro has made out like a bandit before, and this is not far from it

He trades

Coco for Marte
Riske for Mota - Riske had a better year, but hes got a low strikeout rate and arguably less upside than Mota. The plus is that hes making 1.4 million less than Mota so they can spend it on Alex Gonzalez :lol:. It's not a bad move when you consider that Riske is more likely to have a better year than Mota due to Mota's issues next year, but why are they bringing back another reliever? The pen isnt any less crowded and Riske is a year from FA just like Mota was.
Bard for Shoppach - Equal defensively but Shoppach is 2 years younger and hasnt tanked at the major league level yet. I dont like Shoppach at all, but Bard is bad
Riske had a low K-rate in 2005. For his career, he has just over 9/9 IP. What's strange is that his K-rate and BB-rate both plummeted last year. I'm not sure what to make of him, but the Mota-Riske component is the only part of the deal I like for Boston.

Spiker101
01-23-06, 07:52 AM
True, Cleveland and Chicago could possibly be the next New York/Boston.

But Red Sox and Yankee fans can't worry about teams they'll only see 6 times until the postseason. First and foremost, they have to win their own games and their own division, which is why these two teams are focused on each other.

I hear what you're saying, but with the Yanks money finishing among the top four teams in the league is, or should be, a given. For the Yanks, the real season doesn't begin until October.

BeantownYankee
01-23-06, 07:59 AM
Looks like there is a lot more going down then we thought:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/23/source_sox_agree_to_crisp_deal/



Now I really like this deal for the Sox. Including Shoppach a player that seemed trapped and getting Riske and Bard in return is a brilliant move particularly since Bard will be a very capable back up for Varitek.
What happens to Flaherty?

38Special
01-23-06, 07:59 AM
Riske had a low K-rate in 2005. For his career, he has just over 9/9 IP. What's strange is that his K-rate and BB-rate both plummeted last year. I'm not sure what to make of him, but the Mota-Riske component is the only part of the deal I like for Boston.
Check out his HR rate.

BeantownYankee
01-23-06, 08:05 AM
.

Crisp, at age 26, is probably better than Damon next year at 32. Crisp's a better defender, and his stats were put up in Cleveland, not Fenway, where Damon's were. Boston basically got Crisp for Renteria, who was only a tad above replacement value, and played defense BELOW replacement value. In other words, just about ANYONE they stick at short is an upgrade over Renteria.


I'm not sure I would agree that Crisp is a better defender than Damon. Crisp doesn't have a strong arm and from what I was told by a friend in Cleveland that although Crisp can play Center he was a better corner outfielder. That doesn't mean he's a bad centerfielder. I just wouldn't label him as a big improvement over Damon defensively.

38Special
01-23-06, 08:08 AM
Riske's 02-05 splits versus the AL East

BAL: 6.75 ERA
BOS: 5.00 ERA (i guess that doesnt matter though lolz)
NYY: 4.05 ERA (with 3 HR, 4 walks and 4 hits in 3 IP @ Yankee Stadium)
TAM: 3.00 ERA
TOR: 1.23 ERA

goin for 27
01-23-06, 08:10 AM
Check out his HR rate.

Riske is a pretty good pickup for them. Great WHIP, and look at his ERA+.

Yes, he has given up some dingers, but overall, he is a very good, fairly young setup man.

(His HR Rate is lower than Randy, I guess that says something. :lol: )

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 08:11 AM
Check out his HR rate.
It's always been fairly high (1.40, 1.08, 1.28, 1.36) and he's still been reasonably effective. I'm curious what happened to him last year -- his K-rate fell 35 percent from the previous year and his BB-rate fell 61 percent. Why was he suddenly allowing so much more contact but fewer hits?

I guess his .214 BABIP explains the second part.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 08:12 AM
Riske's 02-05 splits versus the AL East

BAL: 6.75 ERA
BOS: 5.00 ERA (i guess that doesnt matter though lolz)
NYY: 4.05 ERA (with 3 HR, 4 walks and 4 hits in 3 IP @ Yankee Stadium)
TAM: 3.00 ERA
TOR: 1.23 ERA
Well, Toronto is Boston's main competition for 2nd/3rd place, so....bonertown!

goin for 27
01-23-06, 08:15 AM
I'm not sure I would agree that Crisp is a better defender than Damon. Crisp doesn't have a strong arm and from what I was told by a friend in Cleveland that although Crisp can play Center he was a better corner outfielder. That doesn't mean he's a bad centerfielder. I just wouldn't label him as a big improvement over Damon defensively.

Crisp was moved for Sizemore, who is fantastic. Crisp does not have a strong arm, but it is definitely solid. Damon's arm is roughly the same as Bernies. (Difference is that Damon can still get to many balls that Bernie can't) I would not say big improvement over Damon defensively, but definitely an improvemnent.

38Special
01-23-06, 08:20 AM
Crisp was moved for Sizemore, who is fantastic. Crisp does not have a strong arm, but it is definitely solid. Damon's arm is roughly the same as Bernies. (Difference is that Damon can still get to many balls that Bernie can't) I would not say big improvement over Damon defensively, but definitely an improvemnent.

Crisp's arm is solid? Damon's arm is definitely far below average, but from what i've seen myself and heard from Indians fans, his arm isnt much better. Definitely below average though.

38Special
01-23-06, 08:30 AM
It's always been fairly high (1.40, 1.08, 1.28, 1.36) and he's still been reasonably effective. I'm curious what happened to him last year -- his K-rate fell 35 percent from the previous year and his BB-rate fell 61 percent. Why was he suddenly allowing so much more contact but fewer hits?

I guess his .214 BABIP explains the second part.

BB rate was supposedly high because of familial problems, but I could be wrong.

Cold Shad
01-23-06, 08:41 AM
It's funny how Sox fans are already stating that Crisp is an upgrade over Damon.
Perhaps you were expecting "Damon RUles."

38Special
01-23-06, 08:49 AM
Perhaps you were expecting "Damon RUles."
Exactly.

Red Sox fans will look for the positives in their moves, and negatives in Yankee moves. Yankee fans will do the same.

Cold Shad
01-23-06, 08:51 AM
Crisp's arm is solid? Damon's arm is definitely far below average, but from what i've seen myself and heard from Indians fans, his arm isnt much better. Definitely below average though.
Which one can prevent a runner on first from taking second on a fly to deep center. We will see.

Dynasties R Forever
01-23-06, 08:56 AM
I think the Yanks have the best offense in baseball, but they have a potentially disastrous pitching staff ; it could be comically bad. Seriously.

I ran a VORP for it off the 2005 projections in BP, and I'm waiting for the new 2006 projections to come out, but as it stands, the Yanks pitching staff has the largest attrition rate in baseball. Of course, that's relative, because the better your set-up stats, the farther you have a chance to fall.

However, anyone who says that the Yanks' staff as constructed is ready to carry off the AL East and cruise through the post-season is deluding themselves. It's surprising that the general atmosphere of the board is that "stand-pat on the rotation" is acceptable.

Crisp, at age 26, is probably better than Damon next year at 32. Crisp's a better defender, and his stats were put up in Cleveland, not Fenway, where Damon's were. Boston basically got Crisp for Renteria, who was only a tad above replacement value, and played defense BELOW replacement value. In other words, just about ANYONE they stick at short is an upgrade over Renteria.

Boston added an ace-type pitcher and has six proven major-league startes, only one of which (Schilling) has major injury questions, and who is also practically guaranteed to best his performance of last year; meanwhile the Yank's ace is 40+ years old and may slide further from his relative-to-dollars mediocrity of 2005.

The Yanks could have a poor season in 2006, and may be scrambling for starting pitching at the deadline again. They really could, indeed, be surprisingly bad.

Oh woe is us, deigned to be fit for the slaughterhouse yet another year, how do we ever keep winning the AL East. It really is such a surprise. To some.

justinvarnes
01-23-06, 09:02 AM
Crisp was moved for Sizemore, who is fantastic. Crisp does not have a strong arm, but it is definitely solid. Damon's arm is roughly the same as Bernies. (Difference is that Damon can still get to many balls that Bernie can't) I would not say big improvement over Damon defensively, but definitely an improvemnent.


Don't have the figures handy, but if you put much faith in UZR or ZR, with the exception of last year Damon was one of the best CF'ers inthe game. probably 4th-7th best.

Crisp as a CF is middle of the road.

Both have terrible arms. Both are VERY fast. Damon is a great reader. Scouts have said that Crisp gets poor jumps from CF. but he's young. maybe that will change?

Still doesn't make it a bad move, since Crisp is still improving and Damon is likely declining, but let's not jump the gun and assume Crisp will play a better CF than the Red Sox have been accustomed to the last few years.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:13 AM
It's funny how Sox fans are already stating that Crisp is an upgrade over Damon.

In the words of Homer Simpson, "It's funny...because it's TRUE!!!" :D

Offensively? Crisp's OPS+ last year was 119, a number that Damon failed to reach in any of his four seasons with the Red Sox. Unless there's some reason to believe that Crisp will decline because of the move to Fenway (and despite entering the prime years of his career), it's almost certainly an upgrade.

Defensively? I won't enter the fray. Suffice it to say that there's no clear consensus, but that what I've read appears to suggest that Crisp has a slightly better throwing arm than Damon (high praise indeed), and there appears to be a split opinion as to whether Crisp's defensive acumen in center field will be quite up to what Damon did in Fenway. Naturally, it's speculative to try to figure what Damon would do in another four full seasons at Fenway as he turns 33 next year, but you have to like Crisp's chances in that matchup at least a little, as he enters his prime years.

I've seen a few people suggest that Damon is a better leadoff hitter than Crisp. That's only going to concern me if Crisp hits leadoff for the Red Sox. He's a decent candidate to do so, but there are better leadoff hitters (Youkilis, Loretta) already in place. Putting Crisp with Varitek, Nixon and Lowell in the 5-6-7-8 spots in the order (rotating them as the season moves on) sounds like a better idea.

The only thing that appears certain if these deals go down: Alex Gonzalez will be carved in stone as the #9 hitter. They'd hit him tenth if they could.

Cold Shad
01-23-06, 09:18 AM
Don't have the figures handy, but if you put much faith in UZR or ZR, with the exception of last year Damon was one of the best CF'ers inthe game. probably 4th-7th best.

Crisp as a CF is middle of the road.

Both have terrible arms. Both are VERY fast. Damon is a great reader. Scouts have said that Crisp gets poor jumps from CF. but he's young. maybe that will change?

Still doesn't make it a bad move, since Crisp is still improving and Damon is likely declining, but let's not jump the gun and assume Crisp will play a better CF than the Red Sox have been accustomed to the last few years.
Damon hasn't gotten great jumps on balls since his concussionin Oakland when he ran into Damian Jackson. His vision was affected . Any one who has watched him play Centerfield in Tampa Bay would notice he Doesn't seem topick up the Ballof the bat very Well.

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 09:19 AM
In the words of Homer Simpson, "It's funny...because it's TRUE!!!" :D



I think 1962's point is that regardless of the validity of the statement, what's funny because it's true is that a lot of Sox fans wouldn't be singing the same tune if Damon had stayed a Sock and Crisp had stayed an Indian...or God forbid a Yankee.

Just like I'm sure Marte will become less and less a big deal over the next few weeks.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 09:23 AM
I think 1962's point is that regardless of the validity of the statement, what's funny because it's true is that a lot of Sox fans wouldn't be singing the same tune if Damon had stayed a Sock and Crisp had stayed an Indian...or God forbid a Yankee.

Just like I'm sure Marte will become less and less a big deal over the next few weeks.
Guess I can't disagree with that, but did you notice any change in sentiment on this board surrounding Johnny Damon before and after he signed with the Yankees?

That's what fans do sometimes. Is it really a "Sox fan" phenomenon?

goin for 27
01-23-06, 09:24 AM
Don't have the figures handy, but if you put much faith in UZR or ZR, with the exception of last year Damon was one of the best CF'ers inthe game. probably 4th-7th best.

Let me know when you find the figures. Also, does last year not count? Damon is a good hitter, and though likely to decline, a bona fide starter, which Bernie no longer was/is.

However, you are referencing defensive only statistics. Do you really believe that Damon is one of the best CF'ers in the game defensively? Even 4th to 7th best? Even "with the exception of last year", which is kind of ridiculous in and of itself? Off the top of my head, there is Rowand, Sizemore, Jones, Hunter, Wells, Kotsay, Beltran, Reed, Winn, DeJesus, etc. (There are more)

The difference is that Damon can hit better than many of these guys, which is why he is valuable. I wanted Damon, (not for the years/money settled on) but I don't kid myself that he is a good defensive CF'er. He is adequate. Good range, no arm, he will not hurt the team out there. One of the best in the game defensively? Not even close.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:35 AM
I think 1962's point is that regardless of the validity of the statement, what's funny because it's true is that a lot of Sox fans wouldn't be singing the same tune if Damon had stayed a Sock and Crisp had stayed an Indian...or God forbid a Yankee.

Just like I'm sure Marte will become less and less a big deal over the next few weeks.

Might or might not be true of Sox fans in general. The regulars on this board don't tend to follow that pattern (I know there are glaring exceptions...let's just wink and move on).

My first choice would have been for the Sox to re-sign Damon. May or may not have been the best "baseball" move, but when you consider the club's overall identity over the last few years and the fact that Damon is a good player (and combine it with the fact that I just like the way he plays the game), I would have liked to see him stay on with the Sox. With him gone, Crisp was (IMO) the best available option. And it's not a terrible stretch to suggest that a good player in his mid-20's might outperform a good player in his mid-30's, is it?

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 09:37 AM
Guess I can't disagree with that, but did you notice any change in sentiment on this board surrounding Johnny Damon before and after he signed with the Yankees?

That's what fans do sometimes. Is it really a "Sox fan" phenomenon?
However, it's more a "Sox fan" phenomenon because historically, former Sox players are usually downgraded as players by many Sox fans and the Boston media once they leave the Sox organization.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:40 AM
Don't have the figures handy, but if you put much faith in UZR or ZR, with the exception of last year Damon was one of the best CF'ers inthe game. probably 4th-7th best.

I don't have UZR numbers handy. But going with ZR, Damon ranks 4th-7th best in the AMERICAN LEAGUE, not in the game.

2005: ranked 8th
2004: ranked 7th
2003: ranked 5th
2002: ranked 4th

The trend there is obvious, and not positive. The trendline on his throwing arm is similar. His bat, on the other hand, remains a potent weapon; 2004 was a huge kind of an outlying season for him in Boston, but the other three years were both excellent and consistent.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:41 AM
However, it's more a "Sox fan" phenomenon because historically, former Sox players are usually downgraded as players by many Sox fans and the Boston media once they leave the Sox organization.

You should go read SoSH right now and see how they're reacting to the potential loss of Andy Marte, a guy who was only in the Sox system for about ten minutes. (Hint: they're not exactly throwing him under the bus.)

In any group of fans, there's a subset of fanboys who root solely for the laundry. It's not fair to brand all (or even most) Sox fans in that category.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 09:45 AM
You should go read SoSH right now and see how they're reacting to the potential loss of Andy Marte, a guy who was only in the Sox system for about ten minutes. (Hint: they're not exactly throwing him under the bus.)

In any group of fans, there's a subset of fanboys who root solely for the laundry. It's not fair to brand all (or even most) Sox fans in that category.
Maybe because Sox fans don't have any emotional attachment with Marte is the reason why they're not throwing him under the bus yet. There are few former Sox players that leave on good terms for another team. If that's not true then it's surely a perception.

terminator
01-23-06, 09:49 AM
However, it's more a "Sox fan" phenomenon because historically, former Sox players are usually downgraded as players by many Sox fans and the Boston media once they leave the Sox organization.

Actually, as far as I can see, Sox fans have been pretty consistent in this thread. I hear a lot of Yankee fans saying "Now Sox fans will state that Theo is a genius", "Now Sox fans will say Marte is over-rated" or "Now Sox fans will trash Mueller because he left" - but I am yet to see that happen. Almost all the Sox fans here hate the fact that Marte will have to be traded, were stunned when Theo left, never trashed him, and are happy he is back, and noone trashed Mueller, MIllar or Renteria only after they left. Rather than post a glib comment like one of the above, why don't you quote one of the posters who changed his tune? I'd be happy to admit that I am wrong.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:53 AM
Maybe because Sox fans don't have any emotional attachment with Marte is the reason why they're not throwing him under the bus yet. There are few former Sox players that leave on good terms for another team. If that's not true then it's surely a perception.

Which are you saying is the perception here: that Sox fans disown their players the second they leave, or that Sox players don't leave the team on good terms? One is a fan-reaction observation, the other a player relations phenomenon that has varied over the years depending entirely on who's sitting in the front office.

With respect to the fans' reactions (which is where this conversation started), I agree that it is a perception, especially here in the tri-state area. I disagree that it's an accurate one.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 09:55 AM
Actually, as far as I can see, Sox fans have been pretty consistent on this thread. I hear a lot of Yankee fans saying "Now Sox fans will state that Theo is a genius", "Now Sox fans will say Marte is over-rated" or "Now Sox fans will trash Mueller because he left" - but I am yet to see that happen. Almost all the Sox fans here hate the fact that Marte will have to be traded, were stunned when Theo left, never trashed him, and are happy he is back, and noone trashed Mueller, MIllar or Renteria only after they left. Rather than post a glib comment like one of the above, why don't you quote one of the posters who changed his tune? I'd be happy to admit that I am wrong.

I think the general reaction to Millar's departure came closest to what 1962 was describing. Even there, though, there is a huge difference between not wanting someone back because he's no longer adequate to do the job, and dissing him simply because he left. (Was Yankee fan reaction to the departure of John Flaherty much different? Nice guy, good clubhouse presence, but lousy hitter, so we can move on from here.)

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 10:20 AM
Guess I can't disagree with that, but did you notice any change in sentiment on this board surrounding Johnny Damon before and after he signed with the Yankees?

Actually, no I didn't. The general sentiment was "I hate him at 7 years but will take him at 4", and there were still those who hate the 4. Impressions of him as a player didn't change, especially when compared to what we've been putting out in CF over the last two seasons. In fact, people still aren't heralding him as any kind of missing piece since the acquisition. The attitude has been more along the lines of being happy we're not worrying about CF for a couple of seasons.



That's what fans do sometimes. Is it really a "Sox fan" phenomenon?

Well, the online Sox community does seem to lean more towards laundry than reality at times. Not all, but perhaps the minority is simply more vocal.

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 10:22 AM
Might or might not be true of Sox fans in general. The regulars on this board don't tend to follow that pattern (I know there are glaring exceptions...let's just wink and move on).

My first choice would have been for the Sox to re-sign Damon. May or may not have been the best "baseball" move, but when you consider the club's overall identity over the last few years and the fact that Damon is a good player (and combine it with the fact that I just like the way he plays the game), I would have liked to see him stay on with the Sox. With him gone, Crisp was (IMO) the best available option. And it's not a terrible stretch to suggest that a good player in his mid-20's might outperform a good player in his mid-30's, is it?

No, it's not a stretch at all. As I said, it's not about the validity of the claim - it's about what the claim would sound like had Damon remained.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 10:34 AM
No, it's not a stretch at all. As I said, it's not about the validity of the claim - it's about what the claim would sound like had Damon remained.

Fair enough. Just for me personally, I don't want it to sound like revisionist history if I say I would have liked the Sox to re-up Damon, but then suggest that Crisp is a great acquisition.

Had the Red Sox actually kept Damon for four years, I suspect I would sound like most Yankee fans here...great to have him for at least the next couple of years, and sure hope he retains value for the last two.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 10:46 AM
Actually, no I didn't. The general sentiment was "I hate him at 7 years but will take him at 4"
I don't see how you can read the pre-signing Damon thread in the Hot Stove forum and then read the post-signing one in Inside the Lines and not perceive a monumental shift in opinion.

In fact, some of the very same posters who underwent the biggest lobotomies -- they didn't want Damon for any price and any length of contract but are now content with the deal at four years -- are the same posters calling out Red Sox fans for their flip-flopping. It's astonishing really.



Well, the online Sox community does seem to lean more towards laundry than reality at times. Not all, but perhaps the minority is simply more vocal.
Again, I'm not disagreeing with that assessment. I don't see it as that much different from other fandoms in that respect.

Mystic Merlyn
01-23-06, 12:16 PM
I know - it's now a given that Crisp is twice the player Damon could ever hope to be. Kind of un-Sox like to acquire a guy with a .332 career OBP (but of course he will learn to draw walks whereas say Robbie Cano is destined to never learn plate discipline).

Anyway the Sox are overpaying for a good outfielder and I hope the deal goes thru. However the natives at SOSH are not happy with this deal and I suspect Theo and John Henry are monitoring the reaction over there quite closely. When the deal falls thru Marte will go back to being the next Mike Schmidt.

Except Crisp has rapidly increased his OBP every season, which is strange in and of itself. Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Hahahahahahahaha.....you actually believe Theo and JWH weigh SoSH heavily in their personnel decisions???? Un-bel-iev-able.

ieddyi
01-23-06, 12:20 PM
Except Crisp has rapidly increased his OBP every season, which is strange in and of itself. Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Hahahahahahahaha.....you actually believe Theo and JWH weigh SoSH heavily in their personnel decisions???? Un-bel-iev-able.

" Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Not true. I read a study,done by the hardball times, I think, that showed that in many cases, discipline can be learned. Arod was on the list of players who hardly walked at all and learned to later on. ( I'm not saying the cano will be another Arod- just that it is possible to learn plate discipline)

BeantownYankee
01-23-06, 12:21 PM
I think the major difference between sox fans and Yankee fans is that if a sox player leaves the majority of the sox fans tend to blame the player and label them disloyal. If a Yankee player leaves the majority of the fans tend to blame the owner & management. Of course one other factor is that the Red Sox seem to turn players over more often the Yankees. Which is not always a bad thing to do.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 12:26 PM
Except Crisp has rapidly increased his OBP every season, which is strange in and of itself. Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Hahahahahahahaha.....you actually believe Theo and JWH weigh SoSH heavily in their personnel decisions???? Un-bel-iev-able.
While his OBP was only .302 during 2003, which was his first season with any significant ABs (over 400 ABs) in MLB, he didn't rapidly increased his OBP from 2004 to 2005. In 2004, it was .344 and in 2005, it was .345 The book on both players still has too many chapters unread for a proper comparison between the two, particularly as it pertains to Cano only having one season at the ML level.

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 12:30 PM
Hahahahahahahaha.....you actually believe Theo and JWH weigh SoSH heavily in their personnel decisions???? Un-bel-iev-able.

To borrow a SoSHism: Eric Van says hello.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 12:43 PM
I think the major difference between sox fans and Yankee fans is that if a sox player leaves the majority of the sox fans tend to blame the player and label them disloyal. If a Yankee player leaves the majority of the fans tend to blame the owner & management. Of course one other factor is that the Red Sox seem to turn players over more often the Yankees. Which is not always a bad thing to do.

This is precisely the public perception that is out there that, I suspect, has far less weight in reality than people think. The Damon example speaks for itself: those fans who were upset at his decision were basing it primarily on the word of Jesus himself, who said less than a year ago that he knew the Yankees would come at him with top dollar, but that's not what he was all about. Contrast that with Pedro, who might have had the annoying habit of using the word "respect" when he meant "money," but he never made any bones about the fact that he would be listening to (and signing with) the team that showed him the most "respect." If there was ANY public outcry about Pedro's departure, it was directed at management, and based on disagreement about whether Pedro deserved a fourth guaranteed year (I was not among those folks). There were no cries of disloyalty about Pedro, and the ones that were levelled at Damon were based on his own (specious) claims of loyalty.

Are there specific examples of other players who left Boston and were subsequently branded as disloyal?

wwjdd
01-23-06, 01:16 PM
The Red Sox have millions of fans - literally. How can anyone presume to know how a "majority" of them feel?

Personally, neither my son nor my rabid Sox fan son have demonized Damon for leaving - just like we didn't demonize Pedro or Mo or ..... We've been disappointed at their apparent hypocrisy from time to time, but we haven't demonized them.

yanksphan
01-23-06, 01:17 PM
To borrow a SoSHism: Eric Van says hello.

er....wait....BESIDES him....;)

38Special
01-23-06, 01:22 PM
Eric Van is hilarious. Especially when he acts like hes better than someone else :lol:

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 01:24 PM
" Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Not true. I read a study,done by the hardball times, I think, that showed that in many cases, discipline can be learned. Arod was on the list of players who hardly walked at all and learned to later on. ( I'm not saying the cano will be another Arod- just that it is possible to learn plate discipline)

I recall the same study, though like you, I can't remember where I saw it. In essence, it boiled things down to: the degree to which plate discipline is coachable is based primarily on the two factors of a.) how coachable the player is and b.) how good the coach is. The discipline itself, however, can be and has been a learned behavior, even at the MLB level.

I have no idea where Cano fits in in this little puzzle, but if he's teachable and Mattingly is any good at imparting his considerable knowledge, then he may certainly have upside from his currently disappointing levels of OBP.

RhodeyYankee2638
01-23-06, 01:27 PM
Eric Van is hilarious. Especially when he acts like hes better than someone else :lol:

I laughed pretty hard when he got RO'ed

Mystic Merlyn
01-23-06, 01:27 PM
" Cano had little plate discipline, which isn't something you "learn" in your MLB career.

Not true. I read a study,done by the hardball times, I think, that showed that in many cases, discipline can be learned. Arod was on the list of players who hardly walked at all and learned to later on. ( I'm not saying the cano will be another Arod- just that it is possible to learn plate discipline)

Really? I am open to anything new, so do you have any idea where I could find it? I'd be interested in reading that.

I know you certainly aren't comparing A-Rod to Cano; I just haven't seen evidence that suggests what you are stating; however, I wouold reconsider my stance if the study proved valid and true.

Saxmania
01-23-06, 01:34 PM
Looking back at this mini Sox-saga, I'm still staggered that they got Marte for Renteria. That's the shocking part of all this to me. From their point of view, I think Marte was a steal, and the Crisp deal is a slight negative (given that they lose Marte), which means they're coming out ahead overall, but not by as much.

I'm still confused why if Michaels is so cheap, why they didn't move Timlin or someone for Michaels. Probably not as good as Crisp, but the gap can't be that great, and their bullpen looks in good shape - most importantly, they keep Marte. When your upside is Scott Rolen, it's hard to think of moving a guy, particularly as he could have been part of a new Pedroia-Lester-Papelbon core that the Sox will need as Ramirez, Ortiz, and Varitek fade.

I think Boston looks competitive for 2006, especially if they can improve over Gonzalez at shortstop. Had they gotten Marte, managed to move Ramirez for Tejada and then dealt for Michaels, I would have been very worried about the Sox. As it is, I think they've missed a trick.

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

mycroft
01-23-06, 01:39 PM
Crisp is a decent player, but not much more.

At 26, he's primed for a breakout year, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

He looks like a .300, 15 HR, .345 OBP guy after doing it for two straight years.

Crisp might be better in the long run because of the age factors, but for right now, I'm glad we have Damon.

Crisp is an upgrade from Damon and they got him for squat. Crip killed us everytime we played Cleveland. No, he is a Mantle or Mays but he is an upgrade and will give them speed, youth and a decent arm. I think the Sox got the better of this deal.

Yankeeah
01-23-06, 01:41 PM
Crisp is an upgrade from Damon and they got him for squat. Crip killed us everytime we played Cleveland. No, he is a Mantle or Mays but he is an upgrade and will give them speed, youth and a decent arm. I think the Sox got the better of this deal.

You consider Marte squat??

ieddyi
01-23-06, 01:50 PM
Really? I am open to anything new, so do you have any idea where I could find it? I'd be interested in reading that.

I know you certainly aren't comparing A-Rod to Cano; I just haven't seen evidence that suggests what you are stating; however, I wouold reconsider my stance if the study proved valid and true.

Learning to Walk IV
2005-07-05 09:23
by Mike Carminati

After filtering down my query, I think I have the final list. There are 205 players who went from sub-par at eliciting a base on balls to better than average after a substantial trial at the major-league level (min. 1000 plate appearances) and who continued to draw walks regularly. They "learned" how to induce a walk.

The first player that I looked for on the list was Sammy Sosa, who went from an average right fielder to a Hall-of-Famer in part because he became a bit more picky at the plate. At age 29 Sosa drew 73 walks, a then-career high, 28 more than the previous season (and only 5 more intentional walks) as he saw his home run total go from 36 to 66 in just one more at-bat. Sosa's first season produced a line of 33 walks to 150 strikeouts. His career high in walks came in 2001, arguably his best season, with 116 walks (37 intentional) against 153 K's.

Sosa's 26th on the list. Ahead of him are a number of Hall-of-Fame- or near-Hall-of-Fame-caliber careers. Most of the better players changed their walking ways early in their careers. Most enjoyed more success after doing so.

John Jaha, for example, went from an offensive sink hole at 1B/DH to, briefly, one of the better power hitters in the game. Ken Caminiti went from a good defensive third baseman to a great offensive one at the age of 32 with a little help from his friends, the base on balls and anabolic steroids. Don Mattingly briefly resurrected his career at age 32 when he went from 39 walks in 686 plate appearances in 1992 to 61 in 596 plate appearances in 1993 while upping his home runs and all of his ratios (and his park-adjusted OPS went from 108 to 118).

Others turned to the base on ball in as refuge in a poor season. Some were repaid with greatness in future seasons (witness Richie Ashburn's sub-par, walk-laden 1952 followed by much success while continuing to draw walks). Some (e.g., Jose Hernandez) turned to the base on balls but still witnessed other aspects of their game shutting down.

Here are the top fifty turnarounds in walk-ability. For each the age at which the went from a sub-par to a superior walker is listed along with the year, their previous walk shortfall below average expectations ("Pre"), previous plate appearances, their post walk surplus ("Post"), the post plate appearances (including the season listed), and the walk above expectation difference before and after. They are ranked by the walk differential:
Name Age Yr Pre TPA Pre Post TPA Post Diff
Jack Clark 23 1979 -0.021 1259 1.063 6966 1.084
Johnny Evers 26 1908 -0.106 2731 0.972 4479 1.077
Carl Yastrzemski 23 1963 -0.020 1362 0.936 12629 0.956
Toby Harrah 26 1975 -0.075 2006 0.734 6760 0.809
Frank Robinson 22 1958 -0.004 1345 0.717 10398 0.721
Hank Greenberg 24 1935 -0.081 1166 0.607 4930 0.688
Luke Appling 27 1934 -0.103 1558 0.579 8685 0.681
Steve O'Neill 25 1917 -0.119 1648 0.559 3912 0.678
Richie Ashburn 25 1952 -0.013 2640 0.605 7096 0.619
Duke Snider 24 1951 -0.094 1560 0.480 6677 0.574
Enos Slaughter 24 1940 -0.019 1095 0.521 7989 0.540
Barry Larkin 27 1991 -0.090 2347 0.435 6710 0.525
Hank Aaron 28 1962 -0.149 5201 0.355 8739 0.503
Ed Delahanty 26 1894 -0.183 2866 0.306 5523 0.489
John Jaha 29 1995 -0.013 1072 0.464 2213 0.477
Bob Kennedy 31 1952 -0.438 3907 0.034 1158 0.471
Red Kress 27 1934 -0.030 3760 0.404 1904 0.435
Sam West 28 1933 -0.060 2686 0.369 4286 0.429
Roy Sievers 26 1953 -0.092 1084 0.334 6265 0.426
J.C. Martin 30 1967 -0.388 1394 0.030 1052 0.418
Heinie Wagner 28 1909 -0.101 1098 0.310 2673 0.411
Ozzie Smith 25 1980 -0.028 1317 0.368 9461 0.396
Todd Hundley 26 1995 -0.064 1304 0.325 3001 0.389
Joe Wood 29 1919 -0.230 1049 0.154 1223 0.384
Don Mattingly 32 1993 -0.368 6182 0.016 1539 0.383
Sammy Sosa 29 1998 -0.225 4374 0.152 4644 0.377
Harvey Kuenn 29 1960 -0.250 4750 0.122 2868 0.372
Wally Moon 26 1956 -0.008 1361 0.359 4205 0.367
Tim Flannery 26 1984 -0.166 1128 0.187 1710 0.352
Daryl Spencer 27 1957 -0.042 1007 0.309 3199 0.351
Ken Caminiti 32 1995 -0.099 3788 0.249 3337 0.348
Shawn Green 26 1999 -0.245 2070 0.098 4158 0.344
King Kelly 26 1884 -0.001 2153 0.337 4302 0.338
Patsy Gharrity 29 1921 -0.124 1175 0.212 1059 0.335
Luis Gonzalez 26 1994 -0.066 1575 0.261 6703 0.327
Curt Welch 27 1889 -0.090 2698 0.236 2241 0.327
Will Clark 24 1988 -0.038 1046 0.286 7237 0.324
Robin Yount 27 1983 -0.256 5257 0.068 6992 0.323
Cass Michaels 22 1948 -0.168 1311 0.148 3709 0.316
Johnny Bench 24 1972 -0.054 2576 0.256 6093 0.310
Johnny Berardino 30 1947 -0.157 2290 0.153 1067 0.310
Rico Petrocelli 26 1969 -0.081 1946 0.225 4224 0.306
Jose Hernandez 32 2002 -0.296 3276 0.009 1391 0.305
Alex Rodriguez 23 1999 -0.137 2271 0.161 4114 0.298
Julio Franco 28 1987 -0.129 2687 0.167 6494 0.296
Roy Hartzell 28 1910 -0.078 1799 0.210 3422 0.288
Al Zarilla 31 1950 -0.101 2607 0.181 1427 0.282
Danny Litwhiler 30 1947 -0.181 2673 0.101 1185 0.282
Ben Oglivie 33 1982 -0.257 4151 0.021 2447 0.278
Honus Wagner 26 1900 -0.048 1519 0.226 10220 0.274


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Cold Shad
01-23-06, 01:50 PM
Actually, as far as I can see, Sox fans have been pretty consistent in this thread. I hear a lot of Yankee fans saying "Now Sox fans will state that Theo is a genius", "Now Sox fans will say Marte is over-rated" or "Now Sox fans will trash Mueller because he left" - but I am yet to see that happen. Almost all the Sox fans here hate the fact that Marte will have to be traded, were stunned when Theo left, never trashed him, and are happy he is back, and noone trashed Mueller, MIllar or Renteria only after they left. Rather than post a glib comment like one of the above, why don't you quote one of the posters who changed his tune? I'd be happy to admit that I am wrong.
I don't thinkyou will ever hear a Red Sox fan trash Bill Mueller. Decisions are made on players every year. Some times the fans agree with the decisions sometimes they don't. Some times these decisions are made by the player and his agent sometimes by management. Loyalty is not usualy an important component of these decisions. Objectivity is. Reality changes for the fan right after the transaction. Why does reality change? Because the player loses his personality for the fan when he leaves. He is not one of us any more. Why will Bill Mueller never get trashed. Hi s personality was simply the way he played. He kept the rest of his personality to himself.I wish him allthe best wherever he goes.

noneckwilliams
01-23-06, 01:51 PM
Exce

Hahahahahahahaha.....you actually believe Theo and JWH weigh SoSH heavily in their personnel decisions???? Un-bel-iev-able.

If Henry didn't care what the fans thought he wouldn't feel the need to prostrate himself to CarltonFisk'sCup and the rest of the gang at SOSH everytime the team makes a move.

Wait and see - he'll make an appearance over there by the end of the week.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 01:54 PM
Interesting article, ieddyi. Some of those names are pretty impressive...maybe the better way to phrase the teachability of plate discipline, going forward, is that yes, it can happen, but it appears to take a very special hitter to learn discipline on the major league level...?

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 01:55 PM
If Henry didn't care what the fans thought he wouldn't feel the need to prostrate himself to CarltonFisk'sCup and the rest of the gang at SOSH everytime the team makes a move.

Wait and see - he'll make an appearance over there by the end of the week.

Perhaps he considers it a good idea to keep a high level of communication with the fanbase?

Honestly, I don't see why anyone would be knocking Sox management for opening up this line of communication. People around here would be peeing their pants with excitement if Brian Cashman came on here, no?

ieddyi
01-23-06, 02:11 PM
Interesting article, ieddyi. Some of those names are pretty impressive...maybe the better way to phrase the teachability of plate discipline, going forward, is that yes, it can happen, but it appears to take a very special hitter to learn discipline on the major league level...?

Yep, there was a high ratio of star to filler on the list. Although since they don't differentiate between intentional walks and usual walks, in some cases- like Sosa it might have been a byproduct of his power upsurge
It might also show that a big part of a star players arsenal is the mental approach to the game.

But, it does show that it is possible to learn the skill

ieddyi
01-23-06, 02:14 PM
Perhaps he considers it a good idea to keep a high level of communication with the fanbase?

Honestly, I don't see why anyone would be knocking Sox management for opening up this line of communication. People around here would be peeing their pants with excitement if Brian Cashman came on here, no?

I love their press conferences and am looking forward to the Theo/LL lovefest to come.

Since the lull in FO dysfunction here, the sawx have been an valued replacement

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 02:26 PM
Come on Sox, sign Alex G and get this thing over with already.

hardrain
01-23-06, 02:28 PM
Come on Sox, sign Alex G and get this thing over with already.

I still say they are holding out for Enrique Wilson

mycroft
01-23-06, 02:30 PM
You consider Marte squat??
They didn't trade Mannie, they replaced Damon very reasonably. Not seeing the contract I would imagine Crisp came a whole lot cheaper.

Actually, any Red Sox could be considerd squat ;)

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 02:30 PM
I still say they are holding out for Enrique Wilson

:lol: They'd probably be better off with Wilson. ;)

mycroft
01-23-06, 02:36 PM
:lol: They'd probably be better off with Wilson. ;)
Maybe they could take Kaz Matsui of the Muts hands :P

noneckwilliams
01-23-06, 02:38 PM
Perhaps he considers it a good idea to keep a high level of communication with the fanbase?

Honestly, I don't see why anyone would be knocking Sox management for opening up this line of communication. People around here would be peeing their pants with excitement if Brian Cashman came on here, no?

The original poster pretty much stated that one would have to be nuts to think that the RS take fan sentiment into account in their decision making process. I think it's pretty clear they do - for better or worse.

Henry is overly responsive to the whims of the fans. His obssession with Theo's return being the prime example.

goin for 27
01-23-06, 02:41 PM
Really? I am open to anything new, so do you have any idea where I could find it? I'd be interested in reading that.

I know you certainly aren't comparing A-Rod to Cano; I just haven't seen evidence that suggests what you are stating; however, I wouold reconsider my stance if the study proved valid and true.


I know it has been posted since, but I am surprised that you would question this.

MOST major league players who break in extremely young, improve on their numbers often drastically the first few years that they are regulars. Obviously many are overwhelmed, once comfortable, improvement is fairly typical. It can be in many areas. Some improve hitting for power, some learn to take more walks, some improve by taking the ball the other way and sacrificing a bit of power, some cut down on strike outs.

I fully expect to see Cano get on base more by the walk as the next couple of years unfold.

As a Red Sox fan, you should look at these guys....

Varitek - Look at '98,99,00, then look at '03/04/05.

Big improvement in the latter years, much more consistent OPS+, etc.

Ortiz - I don't even have to look it up.

Ramirez - Even the great ones like Ramirez, who explode onto the scene, still improve as they acclimate.

Look for Cano to better his OBP significantly in the next couple of years. Maybe not all at once, maybe not in an even orderly fashion, but he will be more patient and selective at the plate.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 02:45 PM
Maybe they could take Kaz Matsui of the Muts hands :P

At least that would give them more youth and speed at second. ;)

Workhorse
01-23-06, 02:54 PM
Assuming that the Crisp trade goes through and the Sox sign Alex Gonzalez...

Which would you rather have for 2006 (offensively and defensively):

Millar, Mueller, Renteria, Damon

OR

Youkilis/Snow platoon, Lowell, Gonzalez, Crisp

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 03:01 PM
Assuming that the Crisp trade goes through and the Sox sign Alex Gonzalez...

Which would you rather have for 2006 (offensively and defensively):

Millar, Mueller, Renteria, Damon

OR

Youkilis/Snow platoon, Lowell, Gonzalez, Crisp

What about Youklis/Snow, Lowell, Gonzalez, Damon, Marte?

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:04 PM
What about Youklis/Snow, Lowell, Gonzalez, Damon, Marte?
If the point was to compare what this year's infield is shaping up to be versus last year's, that scenario is irrelevant.

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 03:06 PM
If the point was to compare what this year's infield is shaping up to be versus last year's, that scenario is irrelevant.


Why? Damon and Crisp are included in the first two.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:10 PM
Why? Damon and Crisp are included in the first two.
Am I missing something? The lists were "Millar, Mueller, Renteria, Damon" which was last year's team and "Youkilis/Snow platoon, Lowell, Gonzalez, Crisp" which will be next year's team.

It's a comparison between last year and this year, not really a hypothetical.

Anyway, I think it's an interesting thing to think about. Next year's squad certainly has potential to be better, but it's far, far from certain.

Edit: just noticed that I said "infield" in the prior post. Didn't mean that.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 03:11 PM
You could fill the Sox with 4 A-Rods, 3 Mannys, a Johan Sanatan and a Pujols (for good measure), and it doesn't mean squat. These aren't the 2004 or even 2005 Sox no matter how they've improved or declined statistically in each position. Those were the teams that I considered a threat and concerned me. These *new* Sox certainly won't duplicate that "aura" in the off-season or on paper.

It'll be a while before we can evaluate this team on the field. They sure aren't the Red Sox I knew and feared.

Workhorse
01-23-06, 03:12 PM
Am I missing something? The lists were "Millar, Mueller, Renteria, Damon" which was last year's team and "Youkilis/Snow platoon, Lowell, Gonzalez, Crisp" which will be next year's team.

It's a comparison between last year and this year, not really a hypothetical.

Anyway, I think it's an interesting thing to think about. Next year's squad certainly has potential to be better, but it's far, far from certain.

Edit: just noticed that I said "infield" in the prior post. Didn't mean that.

Yeah, it was just an exercise in comparing last years starters at 3B, SS, 1B and CF with their 2006 replacements.

I think that it's a slight downgrade offensively (mostly due to Lowell/Gonzalez potentially stinking out the place) but a clear defensive upgrade. In fact, you could argue that the Red Sox have improved across the board in the field in 2006.

bnorris85
01-23-06, 03:23 PM
Assuming that the Crisp trade goes through and the Sox sign Alex Gonzalez...

Which would you rather have for 2006 (offensively and defensively):

Millar, Mueller, Renteria, Damon

OR

Youkilis/Snow platoon, Lowell, Gonzalez, Crisp


I think it all depends.

Millar vs youkilis/snow defence i think is an upgrade, offense is close but will probably be better, or at least more consistant. But who knows what you lose clubhouse wise.

mueller vs lowell. Defensivly a wash, offensivly could be a lot better, but probably a wash.

Renteria vs Gonzalez. Defense vs offense will even out i think

Crisp vs Damon. Damon would be better now offensivly. Defense i think is a wash. But money wise and age wise id rather have crisp.

Those are my thoughts...and i know i probably have goggles on. :P

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 03:30 PM
Wooohoooo!

Crisp, Gonzalez to get physical -- Exams clear way to Sox

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=122555

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:36 PM
Wooohoooo!

Crisp, Gonzalez to get physical -- Exams clear way to Sox

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=122555
Dooley, I truly don't understand your excitement about the Gonzalez deal (unless they announce that they are giving him 2/$10 or something). The guy can't hit, we know that. The Sox are going for an all-glove SS next season and if it turns out that his black hole bat truly does hurt the team (i.e. the rest of the offense doesn't make up for it), the Sox will upgrade mid-season. That's what they've always done. I've admitted that I don't understand bringing in Gonzalez, especially with Cora and Pedroia already here, but I really don't see this move as making or breaking the 06 season.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 03:49 PM
You could fill the Sox with 4 A-Rods, 3 Mannys, a Johan Sanatan and a Pujols (for good measure), and it doesn't mean squat. These aren't the 2004 or even 2005 Sox no matter how they've improved or declined statistically in each position. Those were the teams that I considered a threat and concerned me. These *new* Sox certainly won't duplicate that "aura" in the off-season or on paper.

It'll be a while before we can evaluate this team on the field. They sure aren't the Red Sox I knew and feared.
I want to make sure I'm following you here. It doesn't matter whether the players the Red Sox bring in are better or worse than the ones they replace. All that matters is that they're new players and, therefore, Dooley Womack will not be scared of their aura the way he was last offseason, when he predicted they would collapse (http://www.nyyfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1804567&postcount=1062).

Did I get that right?

ryanthe13th
01-23-06, 03:50 PM
Dooley, I truly don't understand your excitement about the Gonzalez deal (unless they announce that they are giving him 2/$10 or something). The guy can't hit, we know that. The Sox are going for an all-glove SS next season and if it turns out that his black hole bat truly does hurt the team (i.e. the rest of the offense doesn't make up for it), the Sox will upgrade mid-season. That's what they've always done. I've admitted that I don't understand bringing in Gonzalez, especially with Cora and Pedroia already here, but I really don't see this move as making or breaking the 06 season.

Dooley is a Yankees fan.


Rotoworld had this deal being:

Mota, Marte, Shoppach for Crisp, Riske, Indians catching prospect.

I guess that is false.

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 03:51 PM
You could fill the Sox with 4 A-Rods, 3 Mannys, a Johan Sanatan and a Pujols (for good measure), and it doesn't mean squat. These aren't the 2004 or even 2005 Sox no matter how they've improved or declined statistically in each position. Those were the teams that I considered a threat and concerned me. These *new* Sox certainly won't duplicate that "aura" in the off-season or on paper.

It'll be a while before we can evaluate this team on the field. They sure aren't the Red Sox I knew and feared.

I don't understand this comment, Dools. You could say the same about the Yankees, could you not?

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 03:52 PM
Come on Sox, sign Alex G and get this thing over with already.

You sadistic bastard.

38Special
01-23-06, 03:53 PM
Dooley, I truly don't understand your excitement about the Gonzalez deal (unless they announce that they are giving him 2/$10 or something). The guy can't hit, we know that. The Sox are going for an all-glove SS next season and if it turns out that his black hole bat truly does hurt the team (i.e. the rest of the offense doesn't make up for it), the Sox will upgrade mid-season. That's what they've always done. I've admitted that I don't understand bringing in Gonzalez, especially with Cora and Pedroia already here, but I really don't see this move as making or breaking the 06 season.

Because Alex's defensive reputation is completely overblown, and he cant hit worth a lick. In addition, his power magically disappeared (just like Lowell) during the supposed post-steroid ERA. Any of his value is tied into his former power, since he cant get on base, hit for average, or steal bases.


Also, I have no idea what the hell Dooley is talking about.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:54 PM
Dooley is a Yankees fan.
Thanks. My point being, I just didn't understand the excitement and the thinking that bringing in Gonzalez almost eliminates the benefits of bringing in Crisp.

Just asking if there's anything else behind it.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 03:54 PM
mueller vs lowell. Defensivly a wash, offensivly could be a lot better, but probably a wash.

Crisp vs Damon. Damon would be better now offensivly. Defense i think is a wash. But money wise and age wise id rather have crisp.

Those are my thoughts...and i know i probably have goggles on. :P

Beer goggles, you mean, right? ;)

You're placing an awful lot of confidence in Lowell...and not nearly enough in Crisp. Why would Damon be better now offensively, when he wasn't better offensively in 2005?

Mark19
01-23-06, 03:55 PM
Dooley, I truly don't understand your excitement about the Gonzalez deal (unless they announce that they are giving him 2/$10 or something). The guy can't hit, we know that. The Sox are going for an all-glove SS next season and if it turns out that his black hole bat truly does hurt the team (i.e. the rest of the offense doesn't make up for it), the Sox will upgrade mid-season. That's what they've always done. I've admitted that I don't understand bringing in Gonzalez, especially with Cora and Pedroia already here, but I really don't see this move as making or breaking the 06 season.

Well, for the 9th hole it isn't devastating to have someone with a .290 OBP. The thing that surprises me the most is why the Sox would choose a player who will want $3-4 million or 2+ years. If Pedroia really is as good as everyone says he is, why not save some cash and go with a cheap 1 year vet like Royce Clayton. He is a decent enough defender and he can still hit .270+

Anyway, it isn't a backbreaker, worst case scenario is another Pokey Reese, best case scenario is that he puts up Renterian numbers with actual defense.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:56 PM
Because Alex's defensive reputation is completely overblown, and he cant hit worth a lick. In addition, his power magically disappeared (just like Lowell) during the supposed post-steroid ERA. Any of his value is tied into his former power, since he cant get on base, hit for average, or steal bases.


Also, I have no idea what the hell Dooley is talking about.
If you are right about Gonzalez's defense, then okay. I haven't seen him play very much, but everything I've heard says that he's fantastic in the field.

Prickly Pete
01-23-06, 03:58 PM
Because Alex's defensive reputation is completely overblown, and he cant hit worth a lick. In addition, his power magically disappeared (just like Lowell) during the supposed post-steroid ERA. Any of his value is tied into his former power, since he cant get on base, hit for average, or steal bases.
I agree with all that, but I do think he'll be better defensively at SS than Cora by a significant margin. Cora hasn't played SS full-time since 2001. Players don't get moved to easier positions and then get better defensively as they age so that they can move back to tougher positions. I think Cora would've been a disaster as a full-time SS.

Neither of them will hit, so they're going for the better glove. Pedroia is just way too much of a question mark, both in terms of ML-readiness and ability to play SS in the big leagues.


Also, I have no idea what the hell Dooley is talking about.
Once again, you have crystallized my thoughts eloquently.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 03:58 PM
Anyway, it isn't a backbreaker, worse case scenario is another Pokey Reese, best case scenario is that he puts up Renterian numbers with actual defense.
That's what I've been thinking. FWIW, I am assuming that he's getting a 1 year deal worth < $3M. If it's more than that, I hate the deal.

Again, I'm in no way "happy" about having Gonzalez - I don't think we need him. But I see him as being more irrelevant than anything.

NHYank
01-23-06, 04:04 PM
Sox did a great job solving their CF and ss problem. They gave up nothing to get Crisp. Marte has not proven himself yet and the Sox keep all their young pitchers.

spiritof27
01-23-06, 04:13 PM
Boy is this deal going to look one-sided after about one season of Marte in the bigs. The Red Sox just traded a top 5 prospect and a reliever for a left fielder with a sub .350 OBP. Enjoy.

NDBoston
01-23-06, 04:17 PM
Boy is this deal going to look one-sided after about one season of Marte in the bigs. The Red Sox just traded a top 5 prospect and a reliever for a left fielder with a sub .350 OBP. Enjoy.

I'm mixed on this trade but the BA chat today had this on Marte.


Q summarized: marte- bad winter league and big league debut. what's the deal?

A: Chris Kline: {edited} Admittedly, Marte was one of my favorite prospects in baseball two years ago. I've seen him at every level numerous times and I was convinced he was going to be an impact stud player for years. I have since wavered somewhat with what his true ceiling is. I think he's going to be a major league average, maybe slightly above-average third baseman; but I think he's become way overhyped. He maybe has 60 power and while he is sometimes spectacular defensively, I think his value has become inflated. I just don't see him being a superstar.

Maybe that's why the Red Sox are doing the deal.

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 04:18 PM
I haven't looked deeply into the numbers, but have the Sox actually downgraded from Renteria?

Crisp is an upgrade over Damon at the plate, although he will probably be a slight downgrade in CF defensively. Based on nothing other than my personal feelings, I think that he may adapt slightly better defensively than many of us see the numbers dictating.

Lowell is a downgrade at 3B from Billy M.


He's been hovering in the periphery like a specter in the background this entire offseason, but this can't all have been done with Theo's input. I can't honestly believe that he would sign off on Gonzalez, and I seem to remember rumblings that he wasn't enamored with the Beckett deal.

The Crisp deal is very sound, in my opinion. Huge price, but the return covers a need and does so with minimal risk. The biggest question hanging around Coco is whether or not he is going to be a butcher in CF at the Fens. No injuries, no salary to speak of, no age questions, no major questions offensively. That's what a blue chip trading chip should bring back, especially if you overpay to a degree.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:18 PM
I want to make sure I'm following you here. It doesn't matter whether the players the Red Sox bring in are better or worse than the ones they replace. All that matters is that they're new players and, therefore, Dooley Womack will not be scared of their aura the way he was last offseason, when he predicted they would collapse (http://www.nyyfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1804567&postcount=1062).

Did I get that right?

Not sure what you're trying to prove by finding an old post of mine to find an inconsistency. But if that's your bag, go for it. I'm not sure if you're always 100% firm and inflexible with your convictions and beliefs, nary a contradiction, even if there are changes in that particular environment. I can't say that I am; sometimes changes have an influence in my re-thinking my original thought. But that's just me.

Not signing Pedro was the beginning of my souring on the Sox. Renteria (as I said when they first signed him) put the cherry on the cake. Slowly but surely the Sox have become what they are now - a new team that haven't proven a thing no matter who they add or subtract. They aren't the 2004 Sox that have pretty much disbanded. What's so earth-shattering in what I said?

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:24 PM
I don't understand this comment, Dools. You could say the same about the Yankees, could you not?

I'm not sure why you're confused by my statement. The turnover on the Yanks hasn't been nearly as great as it has with the Sox, so as a team it'll be somewhat easier to predict how they'll do in comparison to a revamped team like the Sox.

BronxByTheBay
01-23-06, 04:27 PM
I'm not sure why you're confused by my statement. The turnover on the Yanks hasn't been nearly as great as it has with the Sox, so as a team it'll be somewhat easier to predict how they'll do in comparison to a revamped team like the Sox.

So if the Yankees turned over personel and improved in several positions, you wouldn't be excited by that at all until they actually win something? Then aren't Socks fans right in bagging on this team until it actually wins something?

How is it easier to predict how they'll do in comparison to a revamped Sox team? Did anyone know Giambi was going to have the season he did last year? How about Wang? All we can ever go by is previous performance...until proven wrong by current performance.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:30 PM
I'm mixed on this trade but the BA chat today had this on Marte.



Maybe that's why the Red Sox are doing the deal.

I'm a little surprised that you aren't pooh-poohing this article and coming to the defense of Marte, as you've done till this point (probably rightfully so).

I thought you'd be greatly disappointed in losing him and not find reasons why the Sox are dealing him.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:34 PM
So if the Yankees turned over personel and improved in several positions, you wouldn't be excited by that at all until they actually win something? Then aren't Socks fans right in bagging on this team until it actually wins something?

How is it easier to predict how they'll do in comparison to a revamped Sox team? Did anyone know Giambi was going to have the season he did last year? How about Wang? All we can ever go by is previous performance...until proven wrong by current performance.

In wasn't saying that the Sox improved or weakened. I'm saying that at this point they are an unknown commodity as a team, moreso than the Yanks. What the Yanks do on the field in 2006 is another story, of course, but you can pretty much pencil in what a good portion of their players will do. I've learned long ago that replacing players with better stats doesn't necessarily mean "improvement" and vice versa.

Like I said in the past, I know who the Yankees are as a team for the most part. The Sox, at this point, might as well call themselves the Texas Rangers. I have no clue what these changes will bring them, only that they were champs in 2004, competitive the past few years and have pretty much disbanded now.

38Special
01-23-06, 04:35 PM
I'm mixed on this trade but the BA chat today had this on Marte.



Maybe that's why the Red Sox are doing the deal.
Because one writer thinks he wont be a superstar?

NDBoston
01-23-06, 04:40 PM
I'm a little surprised that you aren't pooh-poohing this article and coming to the defense of Marte, as you've done till this point (probably rightfully so).

I thought you'd be greatly disappointed in losing him and not find reasons why the Sox are dealing him.

I've only defended Marte when it came to the importance of winter ball stats on here but I'm not in love with this trade.

Having said that, I'm not working for the Red Sox and I trust the scouts and the how they value Crisp. You have to trade value to get value and stated it would cost Marte to get Crisp some time ago on here. That's why I expected Reed for Boston, but Lester is "untouchable" right now so that deal died.

I realize Michaels get's plenty of discussion on here but he's never played full-time and I'm hearing he's Derek Lowe II when it comes to off the field. Pass.

The Red Sox will be in the hunt all year long with Crisp in CF and Gonzalez at SS.

You want to know what I'm really happy about, Dools? Manny is still on the Red Sox.

NDBoston
01-23-06, 04:42 PM
Because one writer thinks he wont be a superstar?

I'm guessing some members of the Red Sox front office share that opinion. That's where I was going if that wasn't clear.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:42 PM
Originally Posted by 38Special

Also, I have no idea what the hell Dooley is talking about.




Once again, you have crystallized my thoughts eloquently.

Then why in the hell would you respond to something you didn't understand? Wouldn't it have been easier and more decent of you to ask me to clarify then go for the guffaws with what you thought was a witty, snide comment at my expense?

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 04:43 PM
You want to know what I'm really happy about, Dools? Manny is still on the Red Sox.

Can't say I disagree with you there. You know my feelings about Manny.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 04:45 PM
Losing Marte is tough, really tough. He is a great prospect that could do great things. But in the end I can honestly say that the '06 Red Sox team is going to be a more serious WS contender then '05, hell I havn't been this excited for a season in a long time. We aquired 2 young all-star caliber players and have just absolutly revamped the bullpen. If we do indeed get Riske there is no doubt in my mind we will have a top 3 bullpen. Even if a few of the arms pull a "middle reliever" as I like to say.

Edit: Pulling a middle reliever just indicates how unpredictable Relievers are.

keg411
01-23-06, 04:45 PM
FWIW, as I've said a million times, I've followed the Marlins for a few years, and I followed them last season a bit after I left Miami. And while Alex Gonzalez is excellent defensively he was injured and basically did nothing at the end of last season. Couldn't hit, couldn't field, couldn't do anything (and Damion Easley got hurt as well, so the Marlins pretty much had some random A/AA kid playing SS at the end of the season). As fantastic as his defense looked early, he really sucked at the end and couldn't throw... or catch... or do anything. I assume he'll recover, but he was really injured at the end of last season.

I really think the Crisp trade is good for the Sox though. A young guy with solid upside, no injury history, and few question marks is exactly what a prospect like Marte should bring back (though again, I would've preferred to see the Sox trade Lester -- I think Marte will be fine, but not OMG!BEST!EVAH fine... and is also why I hope the Indians can't get Michaels and the whole thing falls through).

BTW, if Shoppach goes (which he's mentioned to) will Sox fans finally admit that his strikeouts are a worry, he's not the good, he's already old enough to be almost out of prospect status and probably won't make the ML's as more than a backup?

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 04:56 PM
Losing Marte is tough, really tough. He is a great prospect that could do great things. But in the end I can honestly say that the '06 Red Sox team is going to be a more serious WS contender then '05, hell I havn't been this excited for a season in a long time. We aquired 2 young all-star caliber players and have just absolutly revamped the bullpen. If we do indeed get Riske there is no doubt in my mind we will have a top 3 bullpen. Even if a few of the arms pull a "middle reliever" as I like to say.

Edit: Pulling a middle reliever just indicates how unpredictable Relievers are.

Riske isnt good...

His ERA the last two seasons is about 3.50, which is fairly mediocre for a setup man. Not to mention his whip was a byproduct of an extremely low BABIP, .214, when league average is around .300. And the two previous years he was right around .300. Adding those back in would result in a WHIP of 1.45, which is nearly identical to what he did the previous season. He's also got a high HR rate and his FIP ERA was on the wrong side of 4.49 last season.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 05:01 PM
It isn't just RISKE though. Timlin, Seanez, Tavarez, Riske, and now it seems Papelbon is a sick group of Set-up men and middle relievers. Thats a stacked bullpen probably one of the better ones we have seen in Boston.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:03 PM
Losing Marte is tough, really tough. He is a great prospect that could do great things. But in the end I can honestly say that the '06 Red Sox team is going to be a more serious WS contender then '05, hell I havn't been this excited for a season in a long time. We aquired 2 young all-star caliber players and have just absolutly revamped the bullpen. If we do indeed get Riske there is no doubt in my mind we will have a top 3 bullpen. Even if a few of the arms pull a "middle reliever" as I like to say.

Edit: Pulling a middle reliever just indicates how unpredictable Relievers are.
:lol: Too funny about how this team is suddenly better than your 2005 club. In time, we'll see one way or another.

DaSwing
01-23-06, 05:05 PM
FWIW, as I've said a million times, I've followed the Marlins for a few years, and I followed them last season a bit after I left Miami. And while Alex Gonzalez is excellent defensively he was injured and basically did nothing at the end of last season. Couldn't hit, couldn't field, couldn't do anything (and Damion Easley got hurt as well, so the Marlins pretty much had some random A/AA kid playing SS at the end of the season). As fantastic as his defense looked early, he really sucked at the end and couldn't throw... or catch... or do anything. I assume he'll recover, but he was really injured at the end of last season.

I really think the Crisp trade is good for the Sox though. A young guy with solid upside, no injury history, and few question marks is exactly what a prospect like Marte should bring back (though again, I would've preferred to see the Sox trade Lester -- I think Marte will be fine, but not OMG!BEST!EVAH fine... and is also why I hope the Indians can't get Michaels and the whole thing falls through).

BTW, if Shoppach goes (which he's mentioned to) will Sox fans finally admit that his strikeouts are a worry, he's not the good, he's already old enough to be almost out of prospect status and probably won't make the ML's as more than a backup?

The other thing about Shoppach (and I know some Yankees fans will call this sour grapes), he did get about 20 AB (15) in the ML and he looked utterly, completely, entirely, clueless.

I know he has good power numbers in the minors.... I know he has been a "top catching prospect" for some time now... but WOW. He didn't even look like he could get around on my fastball! just looked bad, bad, bad, bad.

0 for 15 with 7K's doesn't even tell the story of how bad he looked.

I know nothing more about him. Never watched him play in the minors. Maybe he was sick or nervous or whatever. His swing was slow and ugly.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 05:07 PM
:laugh: Too funny about how this team is suddenly better than your 2005 club. In time, we'll see one way or another.

Want to make an arguement to prove me wrong? Or you just going to drop in these little one-line Gems?

A MUCH improved pitching staff, sure there is question marks but there is no doubt they are better. Bullpen has been ravamped, a full year of Paps and a healthy Schilling is going to make us better.

We have gotten much younger. Last year Boston didn't have a single starting position player under 30 at the end of the season. This year it looks like we will have at least three.

A MUCH improved Defense. You could argue that the Sox will have a GG candidate at all four IF positions. The OF defense isn't that great but is about on Par with last year.

Offense shouldn't take much of a hit if any. Still having Papi/Manny combo, with the fact that Crisp/Loretta should be much more productive then Damon/Renteria.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 05:11 PM
It isn't just RISKE though. Timlin, Seanez, Tavarez, Riske, and now it seems Papelbon is a sick group of Set-up men and middle relievers. Thats a stacked bullpen probably one of the better ones we have seen in Boston.

Well you made it sound like Riske was something great. Timlin had a 1.32 whip last year, and a 1.23 whip the year before. I think it would be extremely unlikely for him to have a 2.24 era again. In fact his 4.13 era in 2004 seems more accurate considering the whips he has had for the last 2 seasons. Im not that familiar with Tavarez so I wont comment and Papelbon while promising is unproven. looking at Seanez's career stats, he seems like the hit or miss type. Im not saying your bullpen cant be great becaue it can but there is also a decent chance of it being mediocre. Im not saying the Yankees bullpen is the best thing since sliced bread either so dont bring that up.(and before you mention it Farnsworth problem is consistancy he has the talent and has shown the talent, he also added a new pitch last year) Im just saying that the Red Sox bullpen isnt a given and I can see it ranging anywhere from mediocre to lights out.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 05:12 PM
The other thing about Shoppach (and I know some Yankees fans will call this sour grapes), he did get about 20 AB (15) in the ML and he looked utterly, completely, entirely, clueless.

I know he has good power numbers in the minors.... I know he has been a "top catching prospect" for some time now... but WOW. He didn't even look like he could get around on my fastball! just looked bad, bad, bad, bad.

0 for 15 with 7K's doesn't even tell the story of how bad he looked.

I know nothing more about him. Never watched him play in the minors. Maybe he was sick or nervous or whatever. His swing was slow and ugly.

I agree and always have, but where were you in the Red Sox thread when this was being discussed for like 5 pages?

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 05:14 PM
Well you made it sound like Riske was something great. Timlin had a 1.32 whip last year, and a 1.23 whip the year before. I think it would be extremely unlikely for him to have a 2.24 era again. In fact his 4.13 era in 2004 seems more accurate considering the whips he has had for the last 2 seasons. Im not that familiar with Tavarez so I wont comment and Papelbon while promising is unproven. looking at Seanez's career stats, he seems like the hit or miss type. Im not saying your bullpen cant be great becaue it can but there is also a decent chance of it being mediocre. Im not saying the Yankees bullpen is the best thing since sliced bread either so dont bring that up.(and before you mention it Farnsworth problem is consistancy he has the talent and has shown the talent, he also added a new pitch last year) Im just saying that the Red Sox bullpen isnt a given and I can see it ranging anywhere from mediocre to lights out.

Good Post . . . I think it just shows how hit or miss ALL relievers (excpet the "great one") are. But we do have a promising Bullpen and the best part is we got all these guys at under market value which is pretty impressive.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 05:17 PM
Want to make an arguement to prove me wrong? Or you just going to drop in these little one-line Gems?

A MUCH improved pitching staff, sure there is question marks but there is no doubt they are better. Bullpen has been ravamped, a full year of Paps and a healthy Schilling is going to make us better.

We have gotten much younger. Last year Boston didn't have a single starting position player under 30 at the end of the season. This year it looks like we will have at least three.

A MUCH improved Defense. You could argue that the Sox will have a GG candidate at all four IF positions. The OF defense isn't that great but is about on Par with last year.

Offense shouldn't take much of a hit if any. Still having Papi/Manny combo, with the fact that Crisp/Loretta should be much more productive then Damon/Renteria.

I dont know if you can count on a healthy Schilling. Loretta is in question with his wrist injury. Does age matter if the players produce regardless? I dont know if this team will be better than last years. It can be but it can also be worse. The Red Sox have quite a few players that can be horrible or can be amazing(Schilling, Lowell, the bullpen, foulke, Clement). It all depends on luck with injuries and which version of the players show up. The Yankees are the same way on a lesser scale imo.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:18 PM
Want to make an arguement to prove me wrong? Or you just going to drop in these little one-line Gems?

A MUCH improved pitching staff, sure there is question marks but there is no doubt they are better. Bullpen has been ravamped, a full year of Paps and a healthy Schilling is going to make us better.

We have gotten much younger. Last year Boston didn't have a single starting position player under 30 at the end of the season. This year it looks like we will have at least three.

A MUCH improved Defense. You could argue that the Sox will have a GG candidate at all four IF positions. The OF defense isn't that great but is about on Par with last year.

Offense shouldn't take much of a hit if any. Still having Papi/Manny combo, with the fact that Crisp/Loretta should be much more productive then Damon/Renteria.
I don't think your pitching staff is much improved. Not one of your bullpen guys is a certainty and Schilling is still a major question mark. Getting younger doesn't mean you're getting better. Don't get me started about GG, but your infielders are a little long in the tooth except who your SS might be. Also, your offense is going to take a hit based on who you've got in your everyday lineup.

justinvarnes
01-23-06, 05:20 PM
Let me know when you find the figures. Also, does last year not count? Damon is a good hitter, and though likely to decline, a bona fide starter, which Bernie no longer was/is.

However, you are referencing defensive only statistics. Do you really believe that Damon is one of the best CF'ers in the game defensively? Even 4th to 7th best? Even "with the exception of last year", which is kind of ridiculous in and of itself? Off the top of my head, there is Rowand, Sizemore, Jones, Hunter, Wells, Kotsay, Beltran, Reed, Winn, DeJesus, etc. (There are more)

The difference is that Damon can hit better than many of these guys, which is why he is valuable. I wanted Damon, (not for the years/money settled on) but I don't kid myself that he is a good defensive CF'er. He is adequate. Good range, no arm, he will not hurt the team out there. One of the best in the game defensively? Not even close.

For starters:

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=84930&highlight=mark+kotsay+snatch+catch

Please keep in mind that for this particular discussion, I'm not concerned about his ability in 2006. keep reading and you'll see why.

+19 is a VERY good UZR. Better than Jones. WAY Better than Beltran. WAAAAAAAAAY Better than Winn.

Secondly, I don't have UZR's for these guys recently, but here's ZR:

Crisp: 2002-2005: CF = .866 (LF is .907, which is why he projects to be a corner guy)

Damon: 2002-2005: CF = .892 and that's with his worst year being last year at .874

So ALREADY Damon at his poor year last year is a BETTER DEFENDER (again, using ZR/UZR as the emphasis) than Crisp. I didn't just pull this out of thin air. Crisp is a good kid, but he's played CF for a few years and has proven to be ok. But Damon was BY FAR the superior defender. I don't care how you wanna look at it, he's not the defender that Damon was (maybe still is?? we'll see)

Now to the second issue:

Sorry you don't understand how last year doesn't mean much. I'll explain further:

#1 - one year is not enough under ANYONE'S logic to define a defensive trend. not enough chances to use UZR or ZR or RF effectively. Combine that with his shoulder injury which was reported as slowing him down (you'd be amazed at how much fast runners use their arms), and you come up with an inconclusive batch of evidence. maybe he's worse, maybe he's slower, maybe he was just hurt, maybe he had an off year, maybe his cat died. No one uses defensive stats for one year to prove anything because the sample size is too small. nowhere near the sample size as offensive stats and even they're iffy per season.

#2 - THIS IS THE REAL REASON: I might not have been clear enough, so I'll lay it out a little stronger: I am not concerned with who is the better defender or player today. or tomorrow. or 5 years from now. My point of posting is to illustrate that the Red Sox offense and defense has been based - from 2002 to 2005 - on having Damon in CF. Now that he is gone, there will more than likely be a drop off in at LEAST defense but I suspect offense as well. In other words: the team will have a worse CF than they are used to having recently.

to extend that logic, it means that if Johnny Damon dies tomorrow in a tragic gasoline fight accident, it still has no bearing on my initial point. He was VERY good until 2004. He was REAL good in 2004. He was pretty good in 2005. though still better than crisp. (assuming you put faith in those stats...a point I made earlier as well).

If you re-read my posts you should find that I'm pretty clear about the fact that it was a good signing and there is a decent chance Crisp will be a better player than Damon in 2006 - 2009. But that still doesn't make the Red Sox a beetr team than they were 2 years ago. Just better by 2009 than if they kept Damon.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 05:21 PM
I don't think your pitching staff is much improved.

I didn't care to read after this first line.

Beckett
Papelbon
Seanez
Tavarez
Riske

Have all been added plus There is NO WAY we won't get more from Schilling this year. I am not saying he is going to be great but you have to admit he will be better then 05.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 05:23 PM
I don't think your pitching staff is much improved. Not one of your bullpen guys is a certainty and Schilling is still a major question mark. Getting younger doesn't mean you're getting better. Don't get me started about GG, but your infielders are a little long in the tooth except who your SS might be. Also, your offense is going to take a hit based on who you've got in your everyday lineup.
Average age of the infield at the start of the season, including Gonzalez, is 30.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:24 PM
I didn't care to read after this first line.

Know what you mean.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:24 PM
Average age of the infield at the start of the season, including Gonzalez, is 30.
Who you counting at 1st base?

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 05:25 PM
Know what you mean.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Jersey Yankee
01-23-06, 05:26 PM
In the words of Homer Simpson, "It's funny...because it's TRUE!!!" :D

Offensively? Crisp's OPS+ last year was 119, a number that Damon failed to reach in any of his four seasons with the Red Sox. Unless there's some reason to believe that Crisp will decline because of the move to Fenway (and despite entering the prime years of his career), it's almost certainly an upgrade.
So which offensive areas do you expect to see in the first year from Crisp, as opposed to Damon in 2005?

Runs scored? RBI? BA? OPS? Steals? BB?

I'm holding out until I see the evidence, but until this guy scores from 1B and has the primary reason why Ortiz has tons of ribs, I'm not saying much.

bnorris85
01-23-06, 05:28 PM
Beer goggles, you mean, right? ;)

You're placing an awful lot of confidence in Lowell...and not nearly enough in Crisp. Why would Damon be better now offensively, when he wasn't better offensively in 2005?

Yeah damon and crisp were really close. Acually more close than i thought. Anyways i was thinking in terms of damon getting on base for manny and ortiz.

Lowell was great before last year. Being a sox fan with my goggles on im hoping he can turn back into that player that yanks fans were pissed they traded.

Saxmania
01-23-06, 05:30 PM
I have no clue what these changes will bring them, only that they were champs in 2004, competitive the past few years and have pretty much disbanded now.

That seems a little strong, Dools.

Boston holdovers from the last Sox championship: Schilling, Foulke, Ortiz, Ramirez, Nixon, Varitek, Timlin, Wakefield, Arroyo

New York holdovers from the last Yankee championship: Rivera, Jeter, Posada, Williams (!), Mendoza (!!)

As a team, I think Boston is in the rebuilding process to some extent, but it's not like these guys are complete strangers. While I agree that the Yankees are more stable from 2005, the fact that Giambi, Mussina, A-Rod, Matsui, Sheffield, Pavano, RJ, Farnsworth, Cano, etc. weren't there last time the Yankees were World Champions seems to be at least as much of a problem if you believe in intangibles. Don't you think?

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 05:31 PM
Who you counting at 1st base?
Kevin Youkilis.

Yankees1962
01-23-06, 05:36 PM
Kevin Youkilis.
Yeah, I figured that, but if a Red Sox fan is going to talk about GG defense at all four infield positions than he's not talking about Youkilis at 1st. Also, I've read that Lowell and Loretta, have both lost some of their range and appear to be older than their actual ages of 32 and 35 years of age.

Tex_Pettite
01-23-06, 05:37 PM
The Red Sox have a far far better team than anyone seems to be giving credit for.

Millar, Bellhorn (with Cora), and Renteria were very very bad players last year. Graffanino gave them decent production at 2B for part of the year after Bellhorn was released.

If the dominos fall just a little bit right for Mike Lowell, they will have a massively upgraded infield offensively. Further, in the late innings they will likely be fielding an infield of Mike Lowell, JT Snow, Alex Gonzalez, and Alex Cora. 3 of those players are Gold Glove caliber, and Lowell & JT Snow are among the best EVER to field their position. Alex Cora is no slouch at 2B either.

Crisp is already a better hitter than Damon has ever been in his career. Before anyone says Crisp is "average" or "not that great", remember that Bernie Williams was a 120 OPS+ at 25, while Coco Crisp just posted a 119 OPS+ at age 25.

jonnyc39
01-23-06, 05:39 PM
Yeah, I figured that, but if a Red Sox fan is going to talk about GG defense at all four infield positions than he's not talking about Youkilis at 1st. Also, I've read that Lowell and Loretta, have both lost some of their range and appear to be older than their actual ages of 32-33 years.
Okay, I missed the part about GG defense. As for Lowell - I expect just about the same as Mueller on defense. And I'm not familiar enough with Loretta's fielding to grasp an idea yet.

flutie22
01-23-06, 05:41 PM
Yeah, I figured that, but if a Red Sox fan is going to talk about GG defense at all four infield positions than he's not talking about Youkilis at 1st. Also, I've read that Lowell and Loretta, have both lost some of their range and appear to be older than their actual ages of 32 and 35 years of age.

have you seen youk play first base? just wondering.. he's a good defensive third basemen and i will think he will do fine over there...im not saying gold glove but definitely an upgrade from last year.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 05:47 PM
The Red Sox have a far far better team than anyone seems to be giving credit for.

Millar, Bellhorn (with Cora), and Renteria were very very bad players last year. Graffanino gave them decent production at 2B for part of the year after Bellhorn was released.

If the dominos fall just a little bit right for Mike Lowell, they will have a massively upgraded infield offensively. Further, in the late innings they will likely be fielding an infield of Mike Lowell, JT Snow, Alex Gonzalez, and Alex Cora. 3 of those players are Gold Glove caliber, and Lowell & JT Snow are among the best EVER to field their position. Alex Cora is no slouch at 2B either.

Crisp is already a better hitter than Damon has ever been in his career. Before anyone says Crisp is "average" or "not that great", remember that Bernie Williams was a 120 OPS+ at 25, while Coco Crisp just posted a 119 OPS+ at age 25.

1)Graffanino had a career year last year. He will be good but not as good as he was last year.

2)The Dominos have to do some massive falling for Lowell to return to form.

3) Damon will get on base at a better rate than Crisp and steal just as much while providing similiar defense. Crisp had a great year last year but he went up in all his stats from his career numbers last year. That might be expected because he is young and improving but some players dont always improve as well as you would think. He is also one of the players who's name popped up with players who got statistically "lucky" last season in a post in the Red Sox thread. Now im not going to automatically assume Crisp is one of these players. Im not going to assume that Crisp will be better than Damon and progress into a Bernie Williams either.

38Special
01-23-06, 05:48 PM
Okay, I missed the part about GG defense. As for Lowell - I expect just about the same as Mueller on defense. And I'm not familiar enough with Loretta's fielding to grasp an idea yet.
Loretta has little range but hes pretty steady. Not someone to commit many errors. Like an anti-Tejada :lol:

Also, anyone who talks about JT Snow being a great defender now is stuck in 1998

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 06:12 PM
If someone wants to convince me that Damon is better than Crisp, is there any statistical measure you can use to back this up?

WARP1: Crisp 5.6 , Damon 5.5
WARP3: Crisp 6.9 , Damon 6.9
OPS: Crisp 810 , Damon 805
OPS+: Crisp 119 , Damon 113

And the big one...

AGE: Crisp 26 , Damon 32

Damon appears to be a much better base stealer than Crisp, and that disparity will likely be even wider as the Yankees will probably let him steal more while the Red Sox restrict Crisp. That's about it.

Several writers (and a few posters here) have wondered how Crisp will react to the "pressure" of Boston. Given that he hit for a .955 OPS in the heat of a September pennant race last year, I'm OK with the likelihood that he can handle pressure.

Given that the two are so close now, with Crisp having had a better 2005 in most respects than Damon, and Crisp still improving as Damon declines, I'm really puzzled as to how the Red Sox aren't better off with Crisp in center field.

Mystic Merlyn
01-23-06, 06:22 PM
You could fill the Sox with 4 A-Rods, 3 Mannys, a Johan Sanatan and a Pujols (for good measure), and it doesn't mean squat. These aren't the 2004 or even 2005 Sox no matter how they've improved or declined statistically in each position. Those were the teams that I considered a threat and concerned me. These *new* Sox certainly won't duplicate that "aura" in the off-season or on paper.

It'll be a while before we can evaluate this team on the field. They sure aren't the Red Sox I knew and feared.

Well, that sentiment is asinine. You would be plain stupid to not fear a lineup like that-I don't care about "aura", I care about talent and production.

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 06:38 PM
If someone wants to convince me that Damon is better than Crisp, is there any statistical measure you can use to back this up?

Who is saying that Damon is better than Crisp? The difference is with Damon, he just costs money and Crisp cost Marte and Mota.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 06:42 PM
Who is saying that Damon is better than Crisp? The difference is with Damon, he just costs money and Crisp cost Marte and Mota.

and all the Yankees are concerned about is how often he gets on base and plays defense and steals, he steals and gets on base more than Crisp and is similiar on defense. Considering he cost just money and fills the skills the Yankees need he was a better option for the Yankees.

Tex_Pettite
01-23-06, 06:43 PM
Damon will get on base at a better rate than Crisp

You might want to compare Damon's OBP at Fenway vs. on the road during his time in Boston.

keyserhh
01-23-06, 06:43 PM
So which offensive areas do you expect to see in the first year from Crisp, as opposed to Damon in 2005?

Runs scored? RBI? BA? OPS? Steals? BB?

I'm holding out until I see the evidence, but until this guy scores from 1B and has the primary reason why Ortiz has tons of ribs, I'm not saying much.

wow. dude...lets not try to drown in fanboydom. call damon fast or a sparkplug or whatever you want. saying that he "has the primary reason why ortiz has tons of ribs" makes no sense, unless he used to take ortiz to chili's every weekend.

and i believe he did specifically refer to crisp's OPS+, which was higher than damon's ever was in boston.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 06:50 PM
You might want to compare Damon's OBP at Fenway vs. on the road during his time in Boston.

Home/away stats dont have much value to me since they vary from year to year. Damon is moving into a good parks for lefties anyway. His numbers in Yankee stadium dont have that much value since he wont be facinf Yankee pitching anymore and he had good OBP numbers on every other team he has been on. In fact his caeer high OBP was in Kansas City. Im not worried at all.

Tex_Pettite
01-23-06, 06:52 PM
The difference is with Damon, he just costs money and Crisp cost Marte and Mota.

Since Mota is involved in the Cleveland trade the equation is:


Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/David Riske/Josh Bard

For

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/$11 million Cash


That is remarkably one-sided.

Tex_Pettite
01-23-06, 06:55 PM
Correction.

Boston also included relief prospect Jesus Delgado in the Marlins trade. That doesn't change the equation though.

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 06:56 PM
Given that the two are so close now, with Crisp having had a better 2005 in most respects than Damon, and Crisp still improving as Damon declines, I'm really puzzled as to how the Red Sox aren't better off with Crisp in center field.

From a production in 2006 viewpoint:

The ONLY thing that could sway this argument is something changing dramatically. Barring injury, the only thing that changes dramatically in this equation is Crisp's shift from LF to CF. There is a large enough possibility that he is downright dreadful defensively in the new, tricky CF at the Fens, and actually turns in negative run prevention.

Offensively, I would be rock solid confident that Crisp would turn in at minimum a season equal to what Damon produces in '06.

I think that when Win Share type numbers come out a the end of next year, Damon is ahead. I think that VORP listings will show Crisp in front.

Both will be close, though.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 06:56 PM
wow. dude...lets not try to drown in fanboydom. call damon fast or a sparkplug or whatever you want. saying that he "has the primary reason why ortiz has tons of ribs" makes no sense, unless he used to take ortiz to chili's every weekend.

and i believe he did specifically refer to crisp's OPS+, which was higher than damon's ever was in boston.

OPS+ adjust for parks which is good and all but the park factor changes from year to year and it is basically based on how many runs are scored in the park which has to do more with the players imo. Crisp's OPS was about 5 points highers which came from about a 40 point increase in slugging from his career numbers. Might be just Crisp improving but there is also a stat I saw somewhere on this forum which stated he got statistically lucky. I dont know how they do that but it has to do with their BA of balls put in play and the theory that hitters cant control where the ball lands after contact is made.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 06:56 PM
Correction.

Boston also included relief prospect Jesus Delgado in the Marlins trade. That doesn't change the equation though.

Two words for you my friend.

Edit . . . Button

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 06:57 PM
Since Mota is involved in the Cleveland trade the equation is:


Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/David Riske/Josh Bard

For

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/$11 million Cash


That is remarkably one-sided.

In favor of which side?

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 06:57 PM
Since Mota is involved in the Cleveland trade the equation is:


Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/David Riske/Josh Bard

For

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/$11 million Cash


That is remarkably one-sided.
It all comes from if you are taking the perspective that Renteria is being traded for Crisp instead of Marte. You guys had Marte and the better decision might have been to keep him and gone after a cheaper option like Jason Michaels.

But lets look at the players the Sox got here. Beckett has major shoulder concerns but if he's healthy, he's very good. Crisp is a guy I like a lot and I think will be very good. Lowell was horrendous last season and is making $9 million per. He's not someone you want at all. David Riske isn't that good. His low K rate last year has to be very concerning. Josh Bard is horribly bad.

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 06:59 PM
Beckett has major shoulder concerns but if he's healthy, he's very good.

I can't agree with this at this point in time, JWF.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 06:59 PM
Since Mota is involved in the Cleveland trade the equation is:


Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/David Riske/Josh Bard

For

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/$11 million Cash


That is remarkably one-sided.

Those are seprate deals. You still had the best prospect in baseball and still traded him despite having a third baseman with a lot of questions. BTW this is the most fun I have had debating in a while, lots of good points going both ways imo. If you are going by who you had in 2005 and who you have from 2006 like it seems you have to include Damon in that.

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 07:00 PM
and all the Yankees are concerned about is how often he gets on base and plays defense and steals, he steals and gets on base more than Crisp and is similiar on defense. Considering he cost just money and fills the skills the Yankees need he was a better option for the Yankees.
Yeah, but Crisp will get better while Damon will get worse. And between Crisp and Damon, Damon was the only option for the Yankees. We couldn't have matched that package nor would I have wanted to if it meant trading Duncan, Hughes and a reliever.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:00 PM
I can't agree with this at this point in time, JWF.

Yes his road stats which doesnt even factor in the swtich from NL east to AL East worry me too but there is no doubting his upside.

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 07:02 PM
I can't agree with this at this point in time, JWF.
That he has major shoulder concerns or that he is very good if healthy?

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:03 PM
Yeah, but Crisp will get better while Damon will get worse. And between Crisp and Damon, Damon was the only option for the Yankees. We couldn't have matched that package nor would I have wanted to if it meant trading Duncan, Hughes and a reliever.

Its not always black and white like that. Damon is 32 which isnt old for baseball players these days, especially one with a good injury history. Young players dont always improve. Im not saying Crisp wont progress but it isnt a given for him to progress just because he is young.

Snatch Catch
01-23-06, 07:03 PM
Yes his road stats which doesnt even factor in the swtich from NL east to AL East worry me too but there is no doubting his upside.

Oh, I in no way doubt his talent and potential.

I just think that too many people assume that Beckett, when healthy, is a lock to be an ace, or close to it.

Tex_Pettite
01-23-06, 07:08 PM
He's not someone you want at all. David Riske isn't that good. His low K rate last year has to be very concerning. Josh Bard is horribly bad.

I'm not saying who's good or bad. I'm saying that via trade, the difference in the 2005 Red Sox vs. the 2006 Red Sox is:

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/Jesus Delgado/Doug Mirabelli/$11 Million Cash

for

Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/Mark Loretta/Doug Riske/Josh Bard


That's as good as it gets.

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 07:12 PM
Its not always black and white like that. Damon is 32 which isnt old for baseball players, especially one with a good injury history. Young players dont always improve. Im not saying Crisp wont progress but it isnt a given for him to progress just because he is young.
Damon declined from 2004 to 2005 and although he has stayed on the field, he has had his fair share of minor injuries that have affected how he plays. Crisp might not get better, but he's improved every year he's been in the majors. Lets just say that before Crisp was traded to the Red Sox, I liked him as a player a lot. Not nearly as much as Grady Sizemore, but I think he's very good. Just looking deeper into the numbers, there are indications that he will actually decline next year. Although his OPS last season was .810, his PrOPS was .733. I don't know too much about PrOPS but it stands for Predicted OPS for the guy using everything that he did. Read this if you care: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-props/

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 07:13 PM
I'm not saying who's good or bad. I'm saying that via trade, the difference in the 2005 Red Sox vs. the 2006 Red Sox is:

Edgar Renteria/Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez/Kelly Shoppach/Jesus Delgado/Doug Mirabelli/$11 Million Cash

for

Josh Beckett/Coco Crisp/Mike Lowell/Mark Loretta/Doug Riske/Josh Bard


That's as good as it gets.
Is it? You sacrificed quite a bit of future in those deals.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 07:13 PM
David Riske's K rate has dropped considerably. Enough to raise eybrows.

From a high of 11.4 in 2002 to 9.08 in 2004 to last year's 5.95.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:15 PM
Damon declined from 2004 to 2005 and although he has stayed on the field, he has had his fair share of minor injuries that have affected how he plays. Crisp might not get better, but he's improved every year he's been in the majors. Lets just say that before Crisp was traded to the Red Sox, I liked him as a player a lot. Not nearly as much as Grady Sizemore, but I think he's very good. Just looking deeper into the numbers, there are indications that he will actually decline next year. Although his OPS last season was .810, his PrOPS was .733. I don't know too much about PrOPS but it stands for Predicted OPS for the guy using everything that he did. Read this if you care: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-props/

Damon had a minor shoulder injury in the second half of 2005 which affected his numbers. He was having a career year in the first half if I recall correctly. The shoulder seems to be fine now though and while I dont expect pre all star 2005 Damon I expect somewhere between 2004 Damon and 2005 Damon.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:16 PM
David Riske's K rate has dropped considerably. Enough to raise eybrows.

From a high of 11.4 in 2002 to 9.08 in 2004 to last year's 5.95.

Yet his ERA and WHIP are still impressive. A good MR guy to have in any Bullpen. He would be the Yankees third best reliever and possible 2nd best.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:16 PM
It all comes from if you are taking the perspective that Renteria is being traded for Crisp instead of Marte. You guys had Marte and the better decision might have been to keep him and gone after a cheaper option like Jason Michaels.

Don't overlook the fact that Michaels is cheaper because he's an inferior player to Crisp.


But lets look at the players the Sox got here. Beckett has major shoulder concerns but if he's healthy, he's very good. Crisp is a guy I like a lot and I think will be very good. Lowell was horrendous last season and is making $9 million per. He's not someone you want at all. David Riske isn't that good. His low K rate last year has to be very concerning. Josh Bard is horribly bad.

At some point, we're probably all going to have to take a breath and wait for the games to start in April. I know that at this point, most Red Sox fans will minimize Beckett's injury history and/or emphasize the trendline of increased innings pitched per year, whereas most Yankee fans will emphasize the fragility of his shoulder and wait for the thing to explode. Ditto for the performance of Lowell, Foulke, Schilling, and the rest of Fenway's walking wounded. None of these guys has injuries that are more likely to be fatal than not, and with the exception of Schilling, they're all at an age that favors recovery over backsliding. Anyway, we'll see.

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 07:18 PM
He would be the Yankees third best reliever and possible 2nd best.

Yeah, maybe on your PlayStation after you inevitably put in your cheats.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:19 PM
Damon had a minor shoulder injury in the second half of 2005 which affected his numbers. He was having a career year in the first half if I recall correctly. The shoulder seems to be fine now though and while I dont expect pre all star 2005 Damon I expect somewhere between 2004 Damon and 2005 Damon.

Damon pre-All-Star break: .343/.386/.473. That might be a handy fella to have around for the whole season!

Of course, if we're working in splits, you have to consider "road" Damon vs. "Fenway" Damon, too...to say nothing of the fact that, as we've seen with Beckett, Foulke and Schilling, all injuries are career-threatening and there's no such thing as a comeback. So Damon is pretty much doomed. ;)

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:20 PM
Yeah, maybe on your PlayStation after you inevitably put in your cheats.

If Riske wouldn't be the third-best reliever on the Yankees, which three relievers are better?

JeffWeaverFan
01-23-06, 07:20 PM
Don't overlook the fact that Michaels is cheaper because he's an inferior player to Crisp.
Of course. But the question becomes which is better: Marte + Michaels or Crisp. I think you've gotta go with the former.




At some point, we're probably all going to have to take a breath and wait for the games to start in April. I know that at this point, most Red Sox fans will minimize Beckett's injury history and/or emphasize the trendline of increased innings pitched per year, whereas most Yankee fans will emphasize the fragility of his shoulder and wait for the thing to explode. Ditto for the performance of Lowell, Foulke, Schilling, and the rest of Fenway's walking wounded. None of these guys has injuries that are more likely to be fatal than not, and with the exception of Schilling, they're all at an age that favors recovery over backsliding. Anyway, we'll see.
Yes, we will see.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:21 PM
Yet his ERA and WHIP are still impressive. A good MR guy to have in any Bullpen. He would be the Yankees third best reliever and possible 2nd best.

His ERA the last two seasons is about 3.50, which is fairly mediocre for a setup man. Not to mention his whip was a byproduct of an extremely low BABIP, .214, when league average is around .300. And the two previous years he was right around .300. Adding those back in would result in a WHIP of 1.45, which is nearly identical to what he did the previous season. He's also got a high HR rate and his FIP ERA was on the wrong side of 4.49 last season.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:23 PM
Damon pre-All-Star break: .343/.386/.473. That might be a handy fella to have around for the whole season!

Of course, if we're working in splits, you have to consider "road" Damon vs. "Fenway" Damon, too...to say nothing of the fact that, as we've seen with Beckett, Foulke and Schilling, all injuries are career-threatening and there's no such thing as a comeback. So Damon is pretty much doomed. ;)

Im not too worieed about Becketts injury problem. Schillings injury was a lot more sever and Damon has played well in other parks and will be moving into a stadium favorable for leftys and will be in the same division and league.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:23 PM
His ERA the last two seasons is about 3.50, which is fairly mediocre for a setup man. Not to mention his whip was a byproduct of an extremely low BABIP, .214, when league average is around .300. And the two previous years he was right around .300. Adding those back in would result in a WHIP of 1.45, which is nearly identical to what he did the previous season. He's also got a high HR rate and his FIP ERA was on the wrong side of 4.49 last season.

Yet he somehow managed to have the 5th best WHIP by AL relievers. Amazing!

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 07:23 PM
If Riske wouldn't be the third-best reliever on the Yankees, which three relievers are better?
Mo, Farnsworth, Dotel.

Funny, he even said possibly 2nd best. Tell me, would you rather have Riske or Dotel (I sense you'll claim Riske is better than Farns)?

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:26 PM
Mo, Farnsworth, Dotel.

I think someone actually has to be pitching to be considered . . . When Dotel shows he has recovered from Injury and is ACTUALLY active then you may have an arguement. As it stands now with Dotal not being able to pitch for a few weeks I don't think you can include him in this list.

And there is a great possibility that Riske will outpitch Farns next year.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:26 PM
Yet he somehow managed to have the 5th best WHIP by AL relievers. Amazing!

His whip was low because his BABIP was abnormally low. Chances are his BABIP will increase by around 70 points next year.

38Special
01-23-06, 07:29 PM
Yet his ERA and WHIP are still impressive. A good MR guy to have in any Bullpen. He would be the Yankees third best reliever and possible 2nd best.

Riske had a BABIP below .215 and an insanely bad HR rate. I'd probably take him over Sturtze but that isnt saying much

Although theres no point arguing with you about this because youve already chimed in several seperate times today with WOOHOOO HIS WHIP IS LOW PRAISE JESUS

Dooley Womack
01-23-06, 07:33 PM
And there is a great possibility that Riske will outpitch Farns next year.

"Great chance" as in better than "good chance?"

I'd take that bet.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:34 PM
Then he'll just throw some new numbers at you, that he'll pick from somewhere, to state his case.

He lost me at Riske would be 3rd or possibly 2nd best reliever on the Yanks.

HA!

Riske the last three years
224 innings
176 hits
76 BBs
208 Ks
3.05 ERA

Dotel the last three years
101 innings
78 hits
44 BBs
138 Ks
3.65 ERA

How is Dotel better?

Oh and Riske is three years younger.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:34 PM
Mo, Farnsworth, Dotel.

Funny, he even said possibly 2nd best. Tell me, would you rather have Riske or Dotel (I sense you'll claim Riske is better than Farns)?

I'd rather have a healthy Dotel than Riske. I'd also rather have Farnsworth in one of his "on" years than Riske. The real question, obviously, is which Farnsworth shows up this year, and to what extent Dotel has recovered. I could easily foresee a season where Riske is a distant fourth to those three...but also one where he is second only to Rivera.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:35 PM
Considering Farnsworth only problem is being consistant from year to year(Riske has decreasing K numbers as his main fault) and he added a new sick pitch last year which was likely the main reason for his major improvement and he wasnt only good because of luck last year like Riske, I would bet a lot of money on Farnsworth being better.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:41 PM
HA!

Riske the last three years
224 innings
176 hits
76 BBs
208 Ks
3.05 ERA

Dotel the last three years
101 innings
78 hits
44 BBs
138 Ks
3.65 ERA

How is Dotel better?

Oh and Riske is three years younger.

The numbers are being skewed by an injury for Dotel and a insanely lucky year for Riske last year.

I could use Schilling's injury last year and a career year of somebody to work in my favor too but I wont.

Oh yeah and Dotel isnt a good closer, but he is a great set up man.

Mark19
01-23-06, 07:46 PM
Ken Rosenthal is, in my opinion, the best authority on trade rumors. He has reported that the deal is currently limited to Marte and Mota for Crisp with the possibility of a few low-level prospects flying around. If Shoppach, Riske and Bard enter the deal, then it could become very interesting.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:46 PM
Considering Farnsworth only problem is being consistant from year to year(Riske has decreasing K numbers as his main fault) and he added a new sick pitch last year which was likely the main reason for his major improvement and he wasnt only good because of luck last year like Riske, I would bet a lot of money on Farnsworth being better.

Somehow I remember a lot of chatter last year about Sturtze and his fabulous new Mariano Rivera-taught cutter. Farnsworth's problem has been consistency, simply stated. If he can show a few years of excellence without crapping the bed, then I'll believe that problem solved. Until then, I guess, color me skeptical. (That's probably the same logic that leads people to believe that Beckett is injury-riddled until he puts together a few healthy seasons in a row.)

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:47 PM
The numbers are being skewed by an injury for Dotel and a insanely lucky year for Riske last year.

I could use Schilling's injury last year and a career year of somebody to work in my favor too but I wont.

Oh yeah and Dotel isnt a good closer, but he is a great set up man.

Dotel didn't have his ankle freaking destroyed and try to come back early. In fact if I remember correctly the A's were "shocked" that Dotel even had surgery.

But yea because Riske was "So lucky" and Dotel is injury prone, then Dotel is no doubt better.

38Special
01-23-06, 07:48 PM
HA!

Riske the last three years
224 innings
176 hits
76 BBs
208 Ks
3.05 ERA

Dotel the last three years
101 innings
78 hits
44 BBs
138 Ks
3.65 ERA

How is Dotel better?

Oh and Riske is three years younger.

Rather than continue to argue with you and have you throw out whatever numbers you can find to barely prove your point, good luck with Riske. I'll take Dotel or Farnsworth over Riske, Seanez and Tavarez every day till sunday. I'm sure the Sox wil have a "TOP 3 BULLPEN" like you keep raving about :)

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:51 PM
The numbers are being skewed by an injury for Dotel and a insanely lucky year for Riske last year.

I could use Schilling's injury last year and a career year of somebody to work in my favor too but I wont.

Oh yeah and Dotel isnt a good closer, but he is a great set up man.

Looking at VORP, Dotel and Riske have virtually identical numbers for 2003 & 2004 (putting aside Dotel's injury-riddled 2005). I don't think these guys are nearly as far apart as perhaps you'd like them to be.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:52 PM
Better comparisons:

Dotels last year as a set up man: .97 whip, 2.48 era 10.03 k/9

Riskes last year with a normal BABIP: 3.72 era, 1.42 whip

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:52 PM
Rather than continue to argue with you and have you throw out whatever numbers you can find to barely prove your point, good luck with Riske. I'll take Dotel or Farnsworth over Riske, Seanez and Tavarez every day till sunday. I'm sure the Sox wil have a "TOP 3 BULLPEN" like you keep raving about :)

You would honestly rather take an injury prone reliever who has been decent the last three years then a younger reliever who hasn't had an injury and even pitched better? If this is your thinkings then I will concede, its truely clear you are insane.

I would like to persuade you to find any stats that show in the last three years that Dotel has been a better reliever.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:53 PM
Better comparisons:

Dotels last year as a set up man: .97 whip, 2.48 era 10.03 k/9

Riskes last year with a normal BABIP: 3.72 era, 1.42 whip

And I cherry pick stats?

I think Dotel was a great signing and that he could be a very nice pick-up, but thats doesn't mean that he has been better then Riske the last three years. Because he simple hasn't.

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:54 PM
Dotel didn't have his ankle freaking destroyed and try to come back early. In fact if I remember correctly the A's were "shocked" that Dotel even had surgery.

But yea because Riske was "So lucky" and Dotel is injury prone, then Dotel is no doubt better.

Who cares if the guy needs Tommy John, what a wuss! He isnt injury prone, he needed Tommy John and now he has it, if he gets injured again then you can call him injury prone.

CTSoxFan
01-23-06, 07:55 PM
Looking at VORP, Dotel and Riske have virtually identical numbers for 2003 & 2004 (putting aside Dotel's injury-riddled 2005). I don't think these guys are nearly as far apart as perhaps you'd like them to be.

Furthermore, they're both heading the wrong way in their grand march of progress. Comparing VORP numbers:

2002: Dotel 37.1 Riske 2.1 (rookie)
2003: Dotel 29.3 Riske 29.6
2004: Dotel 19.4 Riske 22.0
2005: Dotel 3.8* Riske 18.7

Not exactly the trendlines you want to see from either of them. Riske has been slightly superior to Dotel each of the last three seasons, though.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:56 PM
Who cares if the guy needs Tommy John, what a wuss! He isnt injury prone, he needed Tommy John and now he has it, if he gets injured again then you can call him injury prone.

I'm pretty sure he was told by doctors that he didn't need it. I may be wrong here but thats what I recall. If anyone has any links, please share.

Edit: found the link

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050602&content_id=1073432&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 07:56 PM
And I cherry pick stats?

I think Dotel was a great signing and that he could be a very nice pick-up, but thats doesn't mean that he has been better then Riske the last three years. Because he simple hasn't.

Your right when injured and in a role he isnt good at and wont be used in on the Yankees Dotel hasnt been better than Riske for the last 3 years including last year when he had a BABIP more than 70 points below average.

38Special
01-23-06, 07:56 PM
Somehow I remember a lot of chatter last year about Sturtze and his fabulous new Mariano Rivera-taught cutter. Farnsworth's problem has been consistency, simply stated. If he can show a few years of excellence without crapping the bed, then I'll believe that problem solved. Until then, I guess, color me skeptical. (That's probably the same logic that leads people to believe that Beckett is injury-riddled until he puts together a few healthy seasons in a row.)

Well, just like Schilling, injuries were a problem for Sturtze. Despite how little was let on about his injuries during the season and how bad his past was, he looked like a completely different pitcher from the end of 2004 on. His control was good, he had his ERA in the mid 3's, and was logging the most innings of any Yankee reliever in one of the toughest divisions to pitch in. From July on he was one of the worst pitchers i've seen in recent memory (Quantrill late 04 comes to mind), everything was grooved down the middle or was out of control. I'm not counting on Sturtze to return to the first half form considering his age and lingering arm troubles from 05, but his numbers werent that far off from Riske's until he fell apart, low strikeout rate, low walk rate, bad HR rate (not as bad as Riske's), but with better stuff. Who knows. I'm glad they kept Sturtze around, as hes not likely to be forced into a ton of innings, and does have some upside when his early 05 performance is considered. And if he tanks, there are guys in the upper minors i trust to fill out the 11th/12th man jobs

38Special
01-23-06, 07:58 PM
And I cherry pick stats?


Quote of the year.

SouthernBoSox
01-23-06, 07:59 PM
Quote of the year.

PLEASE put that in your sig! PLEASE!

JeterRodriguezSheff
01-23-06, 08:01 PM
BTW my point is if Riske pitches the same way he did last year with a normal BABIP he wont be good. If Dotel is healthy and in a set up role there is a great chance of him being good. Im not sure about his chances of being healthy, I dont know how hard it is to come back from Tommy John but that wasnt what was being discussed.