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View Full Version : If the Mets get Baez, should Yanks lowball Tavarez?



SINCE77 2
12-30-05, 02:33 PM
Tavarez is quickly heading toward the Bengie Molina FA zone of no takers. With the Mets focusing on Baez, Tavarez will have to reassess his insane demand for a 3-4 year deal and perhaps settle on a 1-2 year deal. The Yanks could then trade Sturze and whomever else for a solid RF allowing Sheff to DH and improve our OF defense. Adding Tavarez would give us the bullpen of the ages and improve our bargaining position with regard to Dotel for 2007 and beyond.


Mariano
Farnsworth
Dotel
Tavarez
Myers
Villone

Our starting rotation is more than adequate when backed up by a deep bullpen. Your thoughts.

Kulish29
12-30-05, 02:36 PM
That would make the BP ridiculous, but it would be overkill.

YankClipper5
12-30-05, 02:52 PM
It sounds like an OK move but I don't think we have a bargaining position with Dotel after this year because he will look elsewhere to close. It would be a nice move to bolster the pen, however. I would take Tavarez over Sturtze.

Evil Empire
12-30-05, 03:03 PM
I would try and get him.

Saxmania
12-30-05, 03:11 PM
We need to set up a trade for a 4th OF/DH/1B using the pieces we have, otherwise we're just creating problems as fast as we solve them. Sturtze+Henn or Sturtz+Proctor. Even Pavano+Henn if we get something really good back. But Tavarez would be a fine addition if we could swing one of those deals.

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

yankeesrule2000
12-30-05, 03:16 PM
I would sign Molina, and make Posada the everyday Dh..

As far as Tavarez, it couldn't hurt.

TheScooter
12-30-05, 03:18 PM
Tavarez stinks.No way :mad:

BJG
12-30-05, 03:20 PM
Why would Tavarez choose a situation where he isn't getting much money and he's the 4th best righthander in the bullpen, basically relegating him to mop up duty and no good way to cash in next year?

vin777b
12-30-05, 03:41 PM
That would make the BP ridiculous, but it would be overkill.


not really. You know as well as i do, come All-Star break, NYY will be looking for a bullpen arm. It happens every year, no matter what the pen looks like on paper, opening day.

sign him up.

SnitchRF
12-30-05, 03:46 PM
I wouldn't say our pen has that much depth when we basically have 2 loogys in Myers and Villone, a huge question mark in Dotel, and Tanyon Sturtze. However, I'd love to add Tavarez.

nnysiny
12-30-05, 03:53 PM
as said above, its overkill. the bullpen is done. Cashman wont even bother talking to Boras to crowd up the bullpen

destro
12-30-05, 03:54 PM
i would try to deal sturtze for some prospects and sign tavarez

BJG
12-30-05, 03:56 PM
i would try to deal sturtze for some prospects and sign tavarez

They already need to trade Sturtze or someone else (and trading just Sturtze is only going to get back marginal players, certainly not prospects in the strictest sense). So, after Sturtze, who would you get rid of to make room for Tavarez? I assume Small, but you aren't going to get much for him either.

Anyway, I still don't see why Tavarez would pick a situation where he's this far down on the depth chart, especially if his goal is to reestablish himself for next year.

Mr. Mxylsplk
12-30-05, 04:16 PM
i would try to deal sturtze for some prospects and sign tavarez
Trying is easy. Doing would be extremely hard. He can't have much value.

JeffWeaverFan
12-30-05, 04:28 PM
We already have 1 pitcher too many, and when Dotel is ready, we have 2 pitchers too many. We need to subtract a guy, not add one.

Dr. Gonzo
12-30-05, 04:42 PM
I bet some other team would offer him more,

either way

I would rather see henn there

keithf1
12-30-05, 04:50 PM
You can never have too many. Especially if the price isn't that bad.

The FUTURE
12-30-05, 04:57 PM
What are the mets offering for Baez ??


Taveraz would be a good addition but only if we can get him for 1 or 2 years.

JeffWeaverFan
12-30-05, 05:15 PM
You can never have too many. Especially if the price isn't that bad.
You can have too many if they all are on the ML roster. More than 11 pitchers is too many for a ML roster.

Irabu's Son
12-30-05, 06:38 PM
Deal Pavano & Sturtze & Proctor & Henn for a nasty right fielder.

Sign Tavarez.

Win games.

Blackout806
12-30-05, 06:46 PM
tavarez isnt THAT great

longtimeyankeefan
12-30-05, 07:02 PM
Deal Pavano & Sturtze & Proctor & Henn for a nasty right fielder.

To whom? For whom?

Jace
12-30-05, 07:33 PM
Its really hard to get a lot of good bullpen arms through free agency because good bullpen arms want good bullpen roles.

There are only like 2-3 desired roles in a bullpen for a righty and they are all taken on the Yankees. Why would Tavarez sign to do nothing/be injury insurance (overpaying him drastically aside)?

Stupid Flanders
12-30-05, 08:04 PM
I wouldn't say our pen has that much depth when we basically have 2 loogys in Myers and Villone, a huge question mark in Dotel, and Tanyon Sturtze. However, I'd love to add Tavarez.
Kyle Farnsworth says hello

38Special
12-30-05, 08:41 PM
Tavarez once again is not very good

vin777b
12-30-05, 09:55 PM
he is solid.

flymick24
12-30-05, 10:03 PM
i think our bullpen is taken care of

The FUTURE
12-30-05, 10:39 PM
My guess


Tavarez signs a 2 year deal in Atlanta

ryanthe13th
12-30-05, 10:56 PM
We don't need Tavarez, simple as that. He'd be an unneccesary signing unless Cashman decides to:

a.) trade sturtze or proctor
b.) release proctor when dotel returns.

Option A is the most likely since I think Proctor somehow still has some value to a few desperate clubs.

BJG
12-30-05, 11:05 PM
We don't need Tavarez, simple as that. He'd be an unneccesary signing unless Cashman decides to:

a.) trade sturtze or proctor
b.) release proctor when dotel returns.

Option A is the most likely since I think Proctor somehow still has some value to a few desperate clubs.

Proctor has options and isn't a part of the numbers crunch that already exists at the major league level.

ryanthe13th
12-30-05, 11:09 PM
Then we have:

Rivera, Farnsworth, Myers, Villone, Small, Wright, Sturtze, Dotel(when he comes back).

What is the point of signing Tavarez? Didn't he want a ridiculous deal anyway? Once Tavarez does what Damon did(stop bluffing and except negotiations about his actual market value), he'll be scooped up by whoever is interested in him.

Yankyfan
12-30-05, 11:26 PM
No! The guy is a nut.

keithf1
12-31-05, 12:02 AM
You can have too many if they all are on the ML roster. More than 11 pitchers is too many for a ML roster.
Too many good relievers. He would bump off our least skilled reliever obviously.

JeffWeaverFan
12-31-05, 12:17 AM
Too many good relievers. He would bump off our least skilled reliever obviously.
Since Taverez isn't very good, that's really not going to do much. If we signed Taverez, we would need to get rid of 2 pitchers. How about we get rid of our one extra pitchers before we start thinking about overpaying both in years and money for an allright relief pitcher?

JeffWeaverFan
12-31-05, 12:20 AM
We don't need Tavarez, simple as that. He'd be an unneccesary signing unless Cashman decides to:

a.) trade sturtze or proctor
b.) release proctor when dotel returns.

Option A is the most likely since I think Proctor somehow still has some value to a few desperate clubs.
If we traded Sturtze (or any of our pitchers that isn't Proctor since he can be put in AAA), then we would have the right amount of pitchers. We need to trade 2 to have room for Tavarez.

StatenIslandYankee
12-31-05, 12:32 AM
Depends on what price

destiNY
12-31-05, 02:02 AM
That would make the BP ridiculous, but it would be overkill.

Not of Tavarez replaces tanyon

DandyAndy46
12-31-05, 06:44 PM
I think getting Tavarez is a good idea...after all, with the departure of Kevin Brown the Yankees don't have a pitcher with a history of punching things in the dugout/clubhouse and breaking their hand....Tavarez is not a good pitcher, please Cash...leave this guy alone

YankeePride1967
12-31-05, 07:59 PM
We are plus one pitcher, but I don't expect Proctor back if there's no takers for Pavano.

Nuke LaLoosh
01-01-06, 12:29 AM
Happy New Year!!! 27 in '06

surge511
01-01-06, 12:31 AM
We already have 1 pitcher too many, and when Dotel is ready, we have 2 pitchers too many. We need to subtract a guy, not add one.

This is true. I think Dotel is the big key to the pen. If he comes back and pitches like normal Dotel, we have a stellar bullpen. If he can't do that, we are right back in the same trouble as last year. Sturtze is an average reliever, a good one when used occasionally - basically a good 6th inning man. Dotel needs to be the guy to step up for the 7th inning by June and really be the bridge to Farnsworth and Mo.

All this being said, if Farnsworth has an off-year (like he loses his mind in NY), we are in HUGE trouble, which opens up a whole new conversation. But assuming we can count on Farnsworth, a good Dotel would really make this bullpen dominating.

Irabu's Son
01-01-06, 08:25 PM
To whom? For whom?

Tampa for Huff.

longtimeyankeefan
01-02-06, 01:40 AM
Tampa for Huff.

Trading four pitchers for an average RFer is not my idea of a great trade - particularly when one looks at Huff's pedestrian numbers in YS.

JeffWeaverFan
01-02-06, 02:29 AM
particularly when one looks at Huff's pedestrian numbers in YS.
I wouldn't be too concerned with his numbers in YS. He's a lefty so he would be helped by the stadium, not hurt by it. II think the reason guys have worse numbers at YS is because he is facing better pitching than the average, not because of the ballpark.

Looking at Huff's numbers in YS, he only has 12 AB's and hit .250/.387/.375/.762. Not bad numbers and with that sample size, doesn't really mean much.

Saying that, I wouldn't trade all those guys for Huff. I'm worried about his subpar 2005 season. Just Pavano for Huff might be a fair deal, but Tampa would want nothing to do with Pavano and his contract.

longtimeyankeefan
01-02-06, 07:22 AM
I wouldn't be too concerned with his numbers in YS. He's a lefty so he would be helped by the stadium, not hurt by it. II think the reason guys have worse numbers at YS is because he is facing better pitching than the average, not because of the ballpark.

Looking at Huff's numbers in YS, he only has 12 AB's and hit .250/.387/.375/.762. Not bad numbers and with that sample size, doesn't really mean much.

Saying that, I wouldn't trade all those guys for Huff. I'm worried about his subpar 2005 season. Just Pavano for Huff might be a fair deal, but Tampa would want nothing to do with Pavano and his contract.

You would think his numbers would be helped by the stadium, but his career splits don't demonstrate that http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/6545/career_by_all_batting_splits.html

Huff, in 35 games & 128 AB, has hit .305/.350/.422/.772 with only 2 HR in Yankee Stadium - that's not a small sample size, so it is a valid expression of what he might do as a Yankee.

In comparison, for his career at all parks (736 games/2498 ABs), his numbers are .288/.342/.478/.820 with 120 HR. So, while his average is better, his slugging loses 50 points - not exactly what one would expect from a LH power hitter in YS.

Here is another comparison - in the Skydome (46 games/182 AB), Huff's career numbers are a gaudy .335/.402/.599/1.001 with 12 HR. Go figure.

I certainly don't think that Huff is that great a defender in RF as to be worth four pitchers. You suggest Pavano for Huff might be doable - can't say as I would disagree except that Tampa is going to want probably half Pavano's salary as well - Huff is due $7.5M this season vs Pavano's $30.9M over the next three seasons.

Right now, I would pass.

Irabu's Son
01-02-06, 11:58 AM
The reason I suggested that was more along the lines of dumping Pavano, Sturtze, and Proctor, three guys who the Yankees really should have no more use for.

FWIW, I think Huff would be a beast in YS.

How about this protection in the lineup:
Damon
Jeter
Rodriguez
Giambi
Sheffield
Matsui
Huff
Cano
Posada

JeffWeaverFan
01-02-06, 02:47 PM
You would think his numbers would be helped by the stadium, but his career splits don't demonstrate that http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/6545/career_by_all_batting_splits.html

Huff, in 35 games & 128 AB, has hit .305/.350/.422/.772 with only 2 HR in Yankee Stadium - that's not a small sample size, so it is a valid expression of what he might do as a Yankee.

In comparison, for his career at all parks (736 games/2498 ABs), his numbers are .288/.342/.478/.820 with 120 HR. So, while his average is better, his slugging loses 50 points - not exactly what one would expect from a LH power hitter in YS.

Here is another comparison - in the Skydome (46 games/182 AB), Huff's career numbers are a gaudy .335/.402/.599/1.001 with 12 HR. Go figure.

I certainly don't think that Huff is that great a defender in RF as to be worth four pitchers. You suggest Pavano for Huff might be doable - can't say as I would disagree except that Tampa is going to want probably half Pavano's salary as well - Huff is due $7.5M this season vs Pavano's $30.9M over the next three seasons.

Right now, I would pass.
I'm sorry. I was looking at Pavano's numbers at YS just this year I think. Whoops...

Anyways, the point I wanted to make was that I believe players (and this goes for Johnny Damon also) might have worse numbers at YS because they are facing better pitchres than the average.

Irabu's Son
01-02-06, 02:59 PM
I'm sorry. I was looking at Pavano's numbers at YS just this year I think. Whoops...

Anyways, the point I wanted to make was that I believe players (and this goes for Johnny Damon also) might have worse numbers at YS because they are facing better pitchres than the average.

I don't understand the logic. Please explain.

The old days of managers setting up their rotations for certain pitchers to face certain teams are over.

YankeePride1967
01-02-06, 03:12 PM
I don't understand the logic. Please explain.

The old days of managers setting up their rotations for certain pitchers to face certain teams are over.

I think what JWFan is saying is that the reason certain players over the last decade may have worse numbers at YS because of the pitchers on the mound as opposed to the Stadium itself.

JeffWeaverFan
01-02-06, 03:39 PM
I think what JWFan is saying is that the reason certain players over the last decade may have worse numbers at YS because of the pitchers on the mound as opposed to the Stadium itself.
Exactly. When we are looking at a player's YS stats for the last, say, decade, then these guys are facing very good pitchers. Much better pitchers than they are facing when they go to, say, Camden Yards for the last decade (although the Orioles had some good pitchers, but as a whole for the last decade, their pitchers weren't nearly as good as the Yankee pitchers).

So, a guy like Damon has been playing at YS since 1996, and in that time, he is facing guys like Cone, Wells, Pettitte, Jimmy Key, Dwight Gooden, Wetteland, Rivera, El Duque, Clemens, and more recently, Moose, RJ, Javy, and Brown.

Yes, the Yankees have had some guys that didn't pitch well, but for the most part, when you are looking at a players numbers at YS, he is facing better pitching at YS.

And I believe that is why Damon has numbers that aren't great at YS. Same with Huff.

Irabu's Son
01-02-06, 04:46 PM
Ah. I got it. For some reason I had a brain fart earlier.

And I agree with you.

Mark19
01-02-06, 05:26 PM
The reason I suggested that was more along the lines of dumping Pavano, Sturtze, and Proctor, three guys who the Yankees really should have no more use for.

FWIW, I think Huff would be a beast in YS.

How about this protection in the lineup:
Damon
Jeter
Rodriguez
Giambi
Sheffield
Matsui
Huff
Cano
Posada

I agree, as a RF/1B/DH, Huff could be a huge player. The problem is that we have no way to get him.

JeffWeaverFan
01-02-06, 07:46 PM
I agree, as a RF/1B/DH, Huff could be a huge player. The problem is that we have no way to get him.
Which is why we should be trying to get Craig Wilson!

38Special
01-02-06, 08:00 PM
Which is why we should be trying to get Craig Wilson!
Any particular reason why?

I dont see any reason to get a worse version of Sheffield. Same goes for Huff. If we're going to spend the chips to get a corner outfielder, let's get one who could field the position well, rather than getting another masher whos a trainwreck in the field. If such doesnt exist currently, let's wait till one comes about

JeffWeaverFan
01-02-06, 08:13 PM
Any particular reason why?

I dont see any reason to get a worse version of Sheffield. Same goes for Huff. If we're going to spend the chips to get a corner outfielder, let's get one who could field the position well, rather than getting another masher whos a trainwreck in the field. If such doesnt exist currently, let's wait till one comes about
Many reasons why.

1. He can be the ultimate utility guy that I think would fit very well on this team. He would play mostly RF, but also would play 1B and LF giving Matsui and Giambi a half day off. He can also catch in an emergency.

2. I want Sheff to DH a lot this season and at this point of time, we don't have anyone that can play RF on this team.

3. Is he all that bad defensively? I haven't seen him play enough to judge him defensively. According to espn.com's scouting, he has a slightly below average arm, average arm accuracy, and slightly below average range. So he's not a great defensive player, but he's not horrible. I would think he's probably an upgrade over Sheff.

4. I think Craig Wilson would come on the cheap. The Pirates are down on him so it wouldn't cost much to get him.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 12:49 AM
Two officials familiar with the talks told Newsday that the Mets are moving closer to acquiring Danys Baez from the Rays, perhaps for Jae Seo, Kaz Matsui and cash.
http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/home_mlb.asp?sport=MLB

If the Devil rays are giving him away for that cheap, the Yanks should make a run at him...

BJG
01-03-06, 01:00 AM
http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/home_mlb.asp?sport=MLB

If the Devil rays are giving him away for that cheap, the Yanks should make a run at him...

A cost controlled, better then league average pitcher under 30...Who are the Yankees trading to beat that and do you really want to trade them for another reliever, especially one who has already expressed displeasure with the concept of setting Wagner up, let being the 4th righty on the depth chart (because he really isn't all that great when you really get down to it).

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 01:19 AM
A cost controlled, better then league average pitcher under 30...Who are the Yankees trading to beat that and do you really want to trade them for another reliever, especially one who has already expressed displeasure with the concept of setting Wagner up, let being the 4th righty on the depth chart (because he really isn't all that great when you really get down to it).

First off, I would expect a better performace from him than Dotel. Last year Baez although a career high, had a ERA+ of 151. Dotel is coming off surgery, how he performs is still a little unknown. I think Baez is more of a sure thing to perform well. So he'd be third IMO. Whats Seos contract?

I don't really know who they can trade. I was thinking along the lines of a prospect or two. Matsui is awful, really awful. Basically the Rays would be recieving a really below average position player (who won't be free), Seo who had an abberation last year (if you take last year from the equation his career ERA+ is 99) and most likely wouldn't perform nearly as well in the AL, for your closer who is cheap and well above average.

ryanthe13th
01-03-06, 01:24 AM
http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/home_mlb.asp?sport=MLB

If the Devil rays are giving him away for that cheap, the Yanks should make a run at him...

The Mets don't have any good prospects besides Lastings Miledge to my knowledge. If they did, you can bet that Tampa Bay would be asking for them.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays frustrate me. Whenever they seem to start piecing together a decent team, they trade away valuable pieces of their club. Why would they trade Lugo, who had a respectable BA and OBP, for Kaz Matsui? Lugo could serve as quite the bench player to back up BJ Upton or perhaps even land them a bullpen arm. In addition, they'd also be trading their closer for whoem they have no immediate replacement for. Right now their bullpen is looking haggard, and they still have no one to compliment Kazmir. It's aggrivating to see a team with talent like the Rays(Crawford, Hall, Lugo, Cantu, Huff, Kazmir, Baez, Lee, Burroughs) flounder so much because of their unwillingness to make any strides to improve.

BJG
01-03-06, 04:13 AM
First off, I would expect a better performace from him than Dotel. Last year Baez although a career high, had a ERA+ of 151. Dotel is coming off surgery, how he performs is still a little unknown. I think Baez is more of a sure thing to perform well. So he'd be third IMO. Whats Seos contract?

I don't really know who they can trade. I was thinking along the lines of a prospect or two. Matsui is awful, really awful. Basically the Rays would be recieving a really below average position player (who won't be free), Seo who had an abberation last year (if you take last year from the equation his career ERA+ is 99) and most likely wouldn't perform nearly as well in the AL, for your closer who is cheap and well above average.

1. If Seo was above average in 2003 and above average in 2005, why is 2004 not the outlier?

2. Seo's arb eligibile.

3. I'm guessing Matsui would be free.

4. Baez walks a lot of guys, gives up a lot of homeruns, and doesn't strike out many guys. I think he got pretty luck last year in ERA sense, which can happen in general, but especially with relievers. He just doesn't excite me all that much.

DontHateOnNumber2
01-03-06, 09:40 AM
Tavarez would be a good addition if he was consistent with control. I saw him blow a save on a walk off when he threw a curve inside when the catcher set up out of the zone. If he gets a smaller deal and we deal another pitcher for some prospects then all the while assuming Tavarez would perform well, then I don't see why he wouldn't be a decent addition to the club. If the Yanks don't sign him though I won't lose any sleep or wonder what could've been.

38Special
01-03-06, 10:27 AM
Hey guys let's not stop until we have 500 relievers. That way we can just pitch the entire game with relievers like grumpy Lou

oy vey

DandyAndy46
01-03-06, 11:31 AM
Tavarez would be a good signing if he wasn't a bad pitcher....but he is so he would be an awful signing...

RhodeyYankee2638
01-03-06, 12:25 PM
When our relievers have trouble pitching 1/3 of an inning (you know, like the last two years) then we will say we shoulda got more help. Trade Proctor and Sturtze for something. Both aren't very good

iodon
01-03-06, 12:25 PM
You would think his numbers would be helped by the stadium, but his career splits don't demonstrate that http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/6545/career_by_all_batting_splits.html

Huff, in 35 games & 128 AB, has hit .305/.350/.422/.772 with only 2 HR in Yankee Stadium - that's not a small sample size, so it is a valid expression of what he might do as a Yankee.

In comparison, for his career at all parks (736 games/2498 ABs), his numbers are .288/.342/.478/.820 with 120 HR. So, while his average is better, his slugging loses 50 points - not exactly what one would expect from a LH power hitter in YS.

Here is another comparison - in the Skydome (46 games/182 AB), Huff's career numbers are a gaudy .335/.402/.599/1.001 with 12 HR. Go figure.

I certainly don't think that Huff is that great a defender in RF as to be worth four pitchers. You suggest Pavano for Huff might be doable - can't say as I would disagree except that Tampa is going to want probably half Pavano's salary as well - Huff is due $7.5M this season vs Pavano's $30.9M over the next three seasons.

Right now, I would pass.

edited because the point I was making had already been made...

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 04:30 PM
1. If Seo was above average in 2003 and above average in 2005, why is 2004 not the outlier?

2. Seo's arb eligibile.

3. I'm guessing Matsui would be free.

4. Baez walks a lot of guys, gives up a lot of homeruns, and doesn't strike out many guys. I think he got pretty luck last year in ERA sense, which can happen in general, but especially with relievers. He just doesn't excite me all that much.

1. It's not that being above average was an abberation it was the fact that his ERA+ of 162 was highly above average. I don't see him duplicating those numbers ever again with his type stuff and especially if he changes leagues.
2. Oh.
3. I think Matsui would cost something, but we will see.
4. His career ERA+ numbers are solid and OBA is solid. His walk rates and HRs given up is nothing alarming. Yes, his K/9 isn't fantastic but its decent. But he throws a mid to upper 90s fastball, he has talent and is still relatively young. I just think the Mets are giving up nothing to get him and we can offer some prospects to get him.

YankClipper5
01-03-06, 04:46 PM
1. It's not that being above average was an abberation it was the fact that his ERA+ of 162 was highly above average. I don't see him duplicating those numbers ever again with his type stuff and especially if he changes leagues.
2. Oh.
3. I think Matsui would cost something, but we will see.
4. His career ERA+ numbers are solid and OBA is solid. His walk rates and HRs given up is nothing alarming. Yes, his K/9 isn't fantastic but its decent. But he throws a mid to upper 90s fastball, he has talent and is still relatively young. I just think the Mets are giving up nothing to get him and we can offer some prospects to get him.

With the pen we have Baez is not all that necessary right now, we have an abundance of pitchers already as it is. If we make a trade, I would much rather see it for a defensive RF who has a decent bat. No sense is further depleting the farm for something we don't need.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 04:53 PM
With the pen we have Baez is not all that necessary right now, we have an abundance of pitchers already as it is. If we make a trade, I would much rather see it for a defensive RF who has a decent bat. No sense is further depleting the farm for something we don't need.

We have one solid relief pitcher after Mo in Farnsworth, thats it, Dotel is still an unknown until the season starts, Myers can only be used against lefties, Villone isn't that good, ect.. Another solid all-around relief pitcher would be great. I don't want to deplete the farm system either in this trade but with what the Mets would be offering, the Yankees can offer something better while still maintaining strength within the system. Pavano should be used to get our RFer not prospects...

BJG
01-03-06, 05:15 PM
1. It's not that being above average was an abberation it was the fact that his ERA+ of 162 was highly above average. I don't see him duplicating those numbers ever again with his type stuff and especially if he changes leagues.
2. Oh.
3. I think Matsui would cost something, but we will see.
4. His career ERA+ numbers are solid and OBA is solid. His walk rates and HRs given up is nothing alarming. Yes, his K/9 isn't fantastic but its decent. But he throws a mid to upper 90s fastball, he has talent and is still relatively young. I just think the Mets are giving up nothing to get him and we can offer some prospects to get him.

1. Yes, but he was above average in 2003 as well. I'm not saying he needs to repeat last year to be above average, nor that he is likley to repeat last year, just that he's no different really then, say, Chacon and is probably a little better (his 2003 was better than Chacon's 2001 and 2003 and his 2004 was't as bad as Chacon's 2002 and 2004).

3. I think the Mets just want to get rid of him and are willing to pay his way out of town. The D-Rays are looking for someone to stand at SS until Upton comes up so they can trade Lugo.

4. Again, ERA for short relievers doesn't often tell much of a story. I have to ask how his Opp OBA is solid. It seems very high for a short reliever to me. and about 60 points higher than what Farnsworth did last year and 25 points higher than Dotel had in '04 when he was healty. His walk rate and HR aren't alarming, but again, for a guy who pitches one inning, they are below average. I know he throws hard, but I don't think he is worth his pervceived value because he's a 'closer'. I think Seo is an above average, cheap major league pitcher, which is something that the D-Rays may want more than prospects who aren't going to have an impact now. Even then, what prosects do you want to give up for this guy?

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 05:36 PM
1. Yes, but he was above average in 2003 as well. I'm not saying he needs to repeat last year to be above average, nor that he is likley to repeat last year, just that he's no different really then, say, Chacon and is probably a little better (his 2003 was better than Chacon's 2001 and 2003 and his 2004 was't as bad as Chacon's 2002 and 2004).

3. I think the Mets just want to get rid of him and are willing to pay his way out of town. The D-Rays are looking for someone to stand at SS until Upton comes up so they can trade Lugo.

4. Again, ERA for short relievers doesn't often tell much of a story. I have to ask how his Opp OBA is solid. It seems very high for a short reliever to me. and about 60 points higher than what Farnsworth did last year and 25 points higher than Dotel had in '04 when he was healty. His walk rate and HR aren't alarming, but again, for a guy who pitches one inning, they are below average. I know he throws hard, but I don't think he is worth his pervceived value because he's a 'closer'. I think Seo is an above average, cheap major league pitcher, which is something that the D-Rays may want more than prospects who aren't going to have an impact now. Even then, what prosects do you want to give up for this guy?

1. I understand, I was just explaining why I thought last year was an abberation.
3. I doubt the Mets are going to give him away for nothing. The Rays are going to have to pay some portion of his ridiculous contract. Yes, they are looking for anyone to stand, but why not pick up the cheapest option somewhere else. Matsui is horribly below average, I hope the Rays don't see any value in him.
4. If it is consistently above average for 3 years straight it does. He threw 72.1 innings, his career .239 OBA is solid. Well I am not saying his worth is higher because he is a closer, his worth is determined by what he can be had for. I think his worth is worth more than Matsui and Seo. I will tell you again, I don't know what prospects/players but I think the Yankees should look into it...

BJG
01-03-06, 06:47 PM
1. I understand, I was just explaining why I thought last year was an abberation.
3. I doubt the Mets are going to give him away for nothing. The Rays are going to have to pay some portion of his ridiculous contract. Yes, they are looking for anyone to stand, but why not pick up the cheapest option somewhere else. Matsui is horribly below average, I hope the Rays don't see any value in him.
4. If it is consistently above average for 3 years straight it does. He threw 72.1 innings, his career .239 OBA is solid. Well I am not saying his worth is higher because he is a closer, his worth is determined by what he can be had for. I think his worth is worth more than Matsui and Seo. I will tell you again, I don't know what prospects/players but I think the Yankees should look into it...

Oh, opponent batting average, not on base average. my mistake. it's the opponent on base average that isn't so good for a short reliever (because of the walks) and his opponent SLG isn't that great either.

Anway, the 'closer' tag has 2 problems. First, it does tend to inflate trade value because someone out there, even if it isn't you, will bid for a 'proven closer'. Second, and more important in this case, is the fact that Baez is arbitration eligible and will likely get overpaid simply because he has some saves.

I'm sure the Yankees called. They call about everyone. But I don't see what they have that that they are willing to give up who is better than Seo from both a performance and cost perspective. Heck, I'd take Seo over Baez every day, especially when you consider cost.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 07:17 PM
Oh, opponent batting average, not on base average. my mistake. it's the opponent on base average that isn't so good for a short reliever (because of the walks) and his opponent SLG isn't that great either.

Anway, the 'closer' tag has 2 problems. First, it does tend to inflate trade value because someone out there, even if it isn't you, will bid for a 'proven closer'. Second, and more important in this case, is the fact that Baez is arbitration eligible and will likely get overpaid simply because he has some saves.

I'm sure the Yankees called. They call about everyone. But I don't see what they have that that they are willing to give up who is better than Seo from both a performance and cost perspective. Heck, I'd take Seo over Baez every day, especially when you consider cost.

I understand the "closer" tag, but obviously its not something important to the Rays. More teams should be involved because I am sure many can offer a better deal than the Mets. As for arbitration obviously the same thing goes for Seo.

I wouldn't Baez probably pitches in the hardest league in the majors and still performs well every year. Before last year Seo was below average, I'd take Baez who pitches in a better league and has been more consistent throughout his career. Maybe a package around Wright could do it...

Mystic Merlyn
01-03-06, 07:23 PM
I would sign Molina, and make Posada the everyday Dh..

As far as Tavarez, it couldn't hurt.

And have Giambi start every game at 1B?

BJG
01-03-06, 07:39 PM
I understand the "closer" tag, but obviously its not something important to the Rays. More teams should be involved because I am sure many can offer a better deal than the Mets. As for arbitration obviously the same thing goes for Seo.

I wouldn't Baez probably pitches in the hardest league in the majors and still performs well every year. Before last year Seo was below average, I'd take Baez who pitches in a better league and has been more consistent throughout his career. Maybe a package around Wright could do it...

The closer tag is important to the Rays because it is directly effecting his salary. Along with the fact that the last year of arbitration is the one where the player is most overpayed anyway, Baez's base salaries have been built on him being a closer, which means he's going to get even more money. That's why they are trading him.

Seo is first year arbitration eligible while Baez is in his last year. That's a big difference. Good players at the beginning of arbitration are actually underpayed. Plus, you get 3 more years of Seo and only one more year of Baez. If Seo gets too expensive after 2 more seasons, you can worry about moving him then. Baez is expensive now and is likely to walk after this season.

Anyway, I just think you are really undervaluing Seo...he's inexpensive, 2 of his 3 seasons he's been above average, and he can give you innings. He's also at least has shown the upside last year to be better than just above average. No one thinks he's going to throw up a 167 ERA+ again, but something between that and the 111 he put up in 2003 doesn't seem unlikely. That's not a nothing offer and is light years ahead of Jaret Wright, as Seo has had a better career, a better peak, is, needless to say, much healther, and costs a lot less. If I were the Devil Rays and I wanted something better than what I already had on the table that I could use in the majors now, I'd ask for Chacon and a good prospect or Wang.

38Special
01-03-06, 07:54 PM
I understand the "closer" tag, but obviously its not something important to the Rays. More teams should be involved because I am sure many can offer a better deal than the Mets. As for arbitration obviously the same thing goes for Seo.

I wouldn't Baez probably pitches in the hardest league in the majors and still performs well every year. Before last year Seo was below average, I'd take Baez who pitches in a better league and has been more consistent throughout his career. Maybe a package around Wright could do it...
The only AL East team he did good against in 05 was the Yankees :uhh:

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 08:13 PM
The closer tag is important to the Rays because it is directly effecting his salary. Along with the fact that the last year of arbitration is the one where the player is most overpayed anyway, Baez's base salaries have been built on him being a closer, which means he's going to get even more money. That's why they are trading him.

Seo is first year arbitration eligible while Baez is in his last year. That's a big difference. Good players at the beginning of arbitration are actually underpayed. Plus, you get 3 more years of Seo and only one more year of Baez. If Seo gets too expensive after 2 more seasons, you can worry about moving him then. Baez is expensive now and is likely to walk after this season.

Anyway, I just think you are really undervaluing Seo...he's inexpensive, 2 of his 3 seasons he's been above average, and he can give you innings. He's also at least has shown the upside last year to be better than just above average. No one thinks he's going to throw up a 167 ERA+ again, but something between that and the 111 he put up in 2003 doesn't seem unlikely. That's not a nothing offer and is light years ahead of Jaret Wright, as Seo has had a better career, a better peak, is, needless to say, much healther, and costs a lot less. If I were the Devil Rays and I wanted something better than what I already had on the table that I could use in the majors now, I'd ask for Chacon and a good prospect or Wang.

I understand in that respect, I just thought you were talking about the "closer" tag as someone who attracts more interest from teams because of the name. I am unsure of how arbitration works.

I don't think I am undervaluing Seo especially if he were to switch to the AL East. His career K/9 is dangerously low, OBA .270 isn't good, and Opposing OPS .753 isn't good. Not to mention he hasn't been anything special in his 6+ year career in the minors. You take his stuff and put it in the AL East and he would be pounded.

Well he only pitched 90 innings this year, I highly doubt he would of kept those type numbers up if he pitched the whole year. So I guess the potential is there but potential for a half year.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 08:14 PM
The only AL East team he did good against in 05 was the Yankees :uhh:

:uhh: Well its a good thing when evaluating a player you use 1 year...

Jaeho
01-03-06, 08:58 PM
Anyway, I just think you are really undervaluing Seo...he's inexpensive, 2 of his 3 seasons he's been above average, and he can give you innings. He's also at least has shown the upside last year to be better than just above average. No one thinks he's going to throw up a 167 ERA+ again, but something between that and the 111 he put up in 2003 doesn't seem unlikely. That's not a nothing offer and is light years ahead of Jaret Wright, as Seo has had a better career, a better peak, is, needless to say, much healther, and costs a lot less. If I were the Devil Rays and I wanted something better than what I already had on the table that I could use in the majors now, I'd ask for Chacon and a good prospect or Wang.

It's funny how only a two years ago, the Mets were looking into sending Seo back to Korean team. Now he is some sort of proven commodity? I am not buying it. Seo was a pet project of Rick Peterson and you have to be careful with guys like that. Didn't we learn with Jaret Wright? He is nothing to write home about stuff-wise and lives off his changeup. I don't see how much more upside he has when he barely breaks 90 mph. He is not the type of pitcher Id want in the AL. Seo has also missed two seasons in the minors recovering from Tommy John surgery and there have been concerns about his conditioning. So I wouldn't call him "much healthier" than anyone.

BJG
01-03-06, 10:27 PM
I understand in that respect, I just thought you were talking about the "closer" tag as someone who attracts more interest from teams because of the name. I am unsure of how arbitration works.

I don't think I am undervaluing Seo especially if he were to switch to the AL East. His career K/9 is dangerously low, OBA .270 isn't good, and Opposing OPS .753 isn't good. Not to mention he hasn't been anything special in his 6+ year career in the minors. You take his stuff and put it in the AL East and he would be pounded.

Well he only pitched 90 innings this year, I highly doubt he would of kept those type numbers up if he pitched the whole year. So I guess the potential is there but potential for a half year.

There are 6 factors that can be used in the course of arbitration:
1. The contribution of the player during the previous season
2. The length and consistency of the player's career
3. The record of the player's previous compensation
4. The performance of the player's club during the previous season
5. Any physical or mental defects the player may have
6. Comparable baseball salaries

As it relates to players in the last year of arbitration historically being overpayed and players in the first two years histirocally being underpaid, the CBA states that:

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group.

In other words, when you are looking for comparable salaries for 1st and 2nd year arb players, you are restrained by only looking at guys with similar service time...this keeps salaries for those guys low, as they are all compared against each other. In the last year of arbitration, this is no longer the case. You can compare the player to anyone. When you combine this with the fact that Baez has gotten a raise in each of the last two years and (pretty much) must get another one and with the fact that other closers he can compare himself to every closer, and those guys are kind of overpayed for the value they provide.

As for his peripherals, I'm not sure what standard you are trying to hold him to. They seem fine to me. A .269 BAA is actually fine for a starter, though I'm not sure it really means anything. It's kind of interesting, though, if you look at the stats you chose, Wright actually doesn't stack up very well versus Seo, yet you offered Wright as a better package, and that's before you get to the health and money issues. In the end, all that really matters is that Seo has been succesfull in 2 of 3 years and is still cheap. That gives him value. Indeed, he doesn't need to do what he did last year to have value at his salary. He can do what he did over 188 innings in 2003, when he was just as good as Wang was last year, for example, just over more innings, and have value.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 10:35 PM
As for his peripherals, I'm not sure what standard you are trying to hold him to. They seem fine to me. A .269 BAA is actually fine for a starter, though I'm not sure it really means anything. It's kind of interesting, though, if you look at the stats you chose, Wright actually doesn't stack up very well versus Seo, yet you offered Wright as a better package, and that's before you get to the health and money issues. In the end, all that really matters is that Seo has been succesfull in 2 of 3 years and is still cheap. That gives him value. Indeed, he doesn't need to do what he did last year to have value at his salary. He can do what he did over 188 innings in 2003, when he was just as good as Wang was last year, for example, just over more innings, and have value.

Thanks for the lesson on arb. I wasn't think Wright alone would do it, it would be Wright and prospect/player. I think your forgetting the Devil rays are also having to take Matsui in the deal as well. Seo is no longer a prospect, the fact that he has had such little time in the majors and is 28, is alarming. He has spent 6+ years in the minors for a reason. I don't believe he will ever duplicate what he did in the AL East, therefore to me he is a below average player not worth my closer...

BJG
01-03-06, 10:44 PM
It's funny how only a two years ago, the Mets were looking into sending Seo back to Korean team. Now he is some sort of proven commodity? I am not buying it. Seo was a pet project of Rick Peterson and you have to be careful with guys like that. Didn't we learn with Jaret Wright? He is nothing to write home about stuff-wise and lives off his changeup. I don't see how much more upside he has when he barely breaks 90 mph. He is not the type of pitcher Id want in the AL. Seo has also missed two seasons in the minors recovering from Tommy John surgery and there have been concerns about his conditioning. So I wouldn't call him "much healthier" than anyone.

Seo had success in 188 2003 innings before Peterson ever showed up. In fact, it seems that part of his 2004 issues came because he openly clashed with what Peterson was trying to do to him.

Seo pitched 212 innings last year. In the last 3 years, he's pitched 540 innings. Jaret Wright has pitched 504 innings in the last 6 years...40 fewer innings, 3 more years. It isn't that hard to argue that Seo is much less of a health risk than Jaret Wright.

Again, he isn't Cy Young, but the chances of him being an above average pitcher are fairly good, he's cheap, etc.

It seems to me that everything people are saying about Seo, you could say about Chacon...doesn't throw hard, relies on change up, not a lot of strikeouts, success last year but over a relatively short stretch, etc. Given that Seo is already on the table and you need to beat that offer, would you be happy trading Chacon plus to get Baez?

BJG
01-03-06, 10:51 PM
Thanks for the lesson on arb. I wasn't think Wright alone would do it, it would be Wright and prospect/player. I think your forgetting the Devil rays are also having to take Matsui in the deal as well. Seo is no longer a prospect, the fact that he has had such little time in the majors and is 28, is alarming. He has spent 6+ years in the minors for a reason. I don't believe he will ever duplicate what he did in the AL East, therefore to me he is a below average player not worth my closer...

What other player makes Jaret Wright palatable? Do the Yankees have a Josh Beckett type that makes it worth taking on their Mike Lowell (and Lowell has a much better chance of bouncing back)? This is a fantasy.

Anyway, the devil rays don't want a prospect...they want a cheap maor league starting pitcher...so Wang or Chacon. The Mets happen to have Heilman and Seo and didn't want to trade Heilman, so they were able to talk them down to something similar. The Yankees likely need to keep both of their guys. In any sense, either is a bad move in terms of value here. Baez isn't that great a reliever, is expensive, is only around for 1 year, and doesn't fill any kind of dire need for the Yankees.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 10:59 PM
What other player makes Jaret Wright palatable? Do the Yankees have a Josh Beckett type that makes it worth taking on their Mike Lowell (and Lowell has a much better chance of bouncing back)? This is a fantasy.

Anyway, the devil rays don't want a prospect...they want a cheap maor league starting pitcher...so Wang or Chacon.

Maybe Wright was a bad choice, I just want to get rid of him. Felix Escalona could do a better job than Matsui. They know they aren't getting Wang or Chacon, the very idea of trading them for Baez is insane. They know that and so do we. Maybe Sean Henn would interest the Rays...

Maybe there isn't a match, but I still think what the Rays would be recieving is shi*ty. They could get a lot more from other teams for Baez, especially on this market...

BJG
01-03-06, 11:07 PM
Maybe Wright was a bad choice, I just want to get rid of him. Felix Escalona could do a better job than Matsui. They know they aren't getting Wang or Chacon, the very idea of trading them for Baez is insane. They know that and so do we. Maybe Sean Henn would interest the Rays...

Maybe there isn't a match, but I still think what the Rays would be recieving is shi*ty. They could get a lot more from other teams for Baez, especially on this market...

Do you agree that Seo is very similar to Chacon (and even Wang to a slightly lesser degree)?

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 11:13 PM
Do you agree that Seo is very similar to Chacon (and even Wang to a slightly lesser degree)?

He isn't similar to Wang, so I disagree in that respect. Chacon, Yes. But Chacon has also pitched extremely well in the playoffs and in the AL East, and was in Colorado his entire career...

BJG
01-03-06, 11:25 PM
He isn't similar to Wang, so I disagree in that respect. Chacon, Yes. But Chacon has also pitched extremely well in the playoffs and in the AL East, and was in Colorado his entire career...

Fine, just Chacon then.

As for his performance in the AL East, he had 5 starts againt AL East opponents. He pitched well against Toronto all 3 times. He pitched well against Baltimore once. He got rocked by Boston once. I don't think that proves anything. I'm glad that he had a good start in the playoffs, but again, one start against a subpar offensive team like the Angels doesn't really mean much in this kind of analysis. The bulk of the data has a lot more value.

So basically, Chacon is very similar to Seo...not a hard thrower, same basic age, not a lot of strikeouts, similar control if you give Chacon a healty break for pitching in Coors, similar gb/fb ratios, similar ERA+, etc.. Yet, you think trading 1 year of Chacon for Baez is a bad deal yet trading 3 years of Seo for Baez is a great deal. That just doesn't make sense.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-03-06, 11:36 PM
Fine, just Chacon then.

As for his performance in the AL East, he had 5 starts againt AL East components. He pitched well against Toronto 3 times. He pitched well against Baltimore once. He got rocked by Boston once. I don't think that proves anything.

So basically, Chacon is very similar to Seo...not a hard thrower, same basic age, not a lot of strikeouts, similar control if you give Chacon a healty break for pitching in Coors. Chacon is actually under control for fewer years, and that's a negative. Yet, you think trading Chacon for Baez is a bad deal yet trading Seo for Baez is a great deal. That just doesn't make sense.

Not only in the AL East but many of the hard teams that we face in the AL some w/ big line-ups, he pitched extremely well against. Such as Anaheim, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland. He also put a pretty decent effort against Texas. Therefore, I think he is worth more to us and to other AL East teams. Not to mention he has proven to able to pitch well in NY and in the playoffs. Of course not a large sample size but still his worth is high to us.

I also think pitching in Colorado messed with his head considering he couldn't throw his best pitch (curveball). I think it affected his mentality at the games he pitched home as well as away. His stuff is just better than Seo's as well...

BJG
01-03-06, 11:50 PM
Not only in the AL East but many of the hard teams that we face in the AL some w/ big line-ups, he pitched extremely well against. Such as Anaheim, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland. He also put a pretty decent effort against Texas. Therefore, I think he is worth more to us and to other AL East teams. Not to mention he has proven to able to pitch well in NY and in the playoffs. Of course not a large sample size but still his worth is high to us.

I also think pitching in Colorado messed with his head considering he couldn't throw his best pitch (curveball). I think it affected his mentality at the games he pitched home as well as away. His stuff is just better than Seo's as well...

Oakland, Anaheim, and the White Sox weren't good offensive teams last year. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in his start against Texas.

Not sure why any of this means anything.

Not sure how he has better 'stuff' than Seo or if that even matters if the results are the basically the same (and I'm giving Chacon a ton of Coors slack to make that the case).

Not sure why his small sample last year has meaing that Seo's doesn't.

Not sure why his value to the Yankees matters. You want to trade for Baez. The only thing that matters in that context is the value that Tampa places on the player. They could care less if he he can pitch in NY. They only care who is going to pitch better in Tampa (and for how much and for how long). In their eyes, if Seo and Chacon are as similar as they appear and they get 3 years of Seo and 1 year of Chacon before free agency, Seo is actually the better deal. Taking on Matsui probably makes it even, though getting Matsui back in a dome on turf for the majority of his games might be the only thing that turns his career around.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-04-06, 12:01 AM
Oakland, Anaheim, and the White Sox weren't good offensive teams last year. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in his start against Texas.
3 runs in 6...



Not sure why any of this means anything.

Not sure how he has better 'stuff' than Seo or if that even matters if the results are the same.

Not sure why his small sample last year has meaing that Seo's doesn't.

Chacon when fully healthy throws a fastball thats sits 92-94, Seo can't throw that hard. Chacon also has a cutter, slider, and changeup. His "stuff" is worth more. Like I said again and again I do not see Seo being an above average pitcher in the AL East.



Not sure why his value to the Yankees matters. You want to trade for Baez. The only thing that matters in that context is the value that Tampa places on the player. They could care less if he he can pitch in NY. They only care who is going to pitch better in Tampa (and for how much and for how long). In their eyes, if Seo and Chacon are as similar as they appear and they get 3 years of Seo and 1 year of Chacon before free agency, Seo is actually the better deal. Taking on Matsui probably makes it even, though getting Matsui back in a dome on turf for the majority of his games might be the only thing that turns his career around.

It matters to the Rays because Chacon has actually proven he can pitch in the AL East while Seo has not. Seo has also had Tommy John surgery already. What it comes down to is getting a pitcher who most likely won't be an above average pitcher on your team, taking a horrible below average position player that could cost money, for your closer who has proven to be successful. I just think the Rays could do better...

BJG
01-04-06, 12:36 AM
3 runs in 6...

he had a 1 inning relief appearance where he didn't give up a run. he had 1 start where he pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs. that doesn't make me jump up and down and think he can handle the AL.


Chacon when fully healthy throws a fastball thats sits 92-94, Seo can't throw that hard. Chacon also has a cutter, slider, and changeup. His "stuff" is worth more. Like I said again and again I do not see Seo being an above average pitcher in the AL East.

Chacon hasn't thrown that hard in a few years. It's not a matter of health, I don't think. He just backed off in order to gain more control and movement. He rarelly even hits 90 anymore, so the same as Seo who also has a good good changeup and slider. Oh, and Chacon dumped the slider in favor of the cutter and throws a curve.

Again, I just don't see the 'stuff' argument here. It's entirely subjective anyway, but if it were true, there would be something tangible that just isn't there even months after being removed from Coors.


It matters to the Rays because Chacon has actually proven he can pitch in the AL East while Seo has not.

Chacon hasn't proven anything. 79 innings in your first look at the league aren't enough to draw those kinds of conclusions, or to start weighing those 79 innings more than the rest of his career. I'm talking about looking at the whole pitcher here.


Seo has also had Tommy John surgery already.

In 1999. TJ surgery is a fairly known commodity now. He's years past any hump where it would negatively effect him going forward.

Chacon career high in innings pitched is 173.2 back in 2000, btw. He's not exactly an innings eater. Seo threw his career high, 212 IP, last year.


What it comes down to is getting a pitcher who most likely won't be an above average pitcher on your team, taking a horrible below average position player that could cost money, for your closer who has proven to be successful. I just think the Rays could do better...

I just see no evidence that Seo would somehow suck in the AL. It's too easy to just say that a guy will suddenly perform worse relative to the league than other pitchers that make the switch, and that's the argument I guess you are trying to make. I look at his DIPS and see a guy who has a good shot of continuing to be above average (not Cy Young worthy like he would be if he did what he did last year for a whole season), but above average. And again, you get this for 3 years before he's a free agent. That simply has more value than the 70 innings a year that Baez is going to pitch.

Maybe they could do better (you could say that about any trade ever), you just haven't suggested a single scenario yet in which they do. Your best offer so far is Wright and a prospect or Sean Henn, which isn't even close.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-04-06, 12:57 AM
Chacon hasn't proven anything. 79 innings in your first look at the league aren't enough to draw those kinds of conclusions, or to start weighing those 79 innings more than the rest of his career. I'm talking about looking at the whole pitcher here.

How can you look at the whole picture, hes become something entirely different when he came over here.



In 1999. TJ surgery is a fairly known commodity now. He's years past any hump where it would negatively effect him going forward.

Chacon career high in innings pitched is 173.2 back in 2000, btw. He's not exactly an innings eater. Seo threw his career high, 212 IP, last year.

Yeah, including the minors, so what? He hasn't proved enough at the major league level.

[QUOTE=BJG]
I just see no evidence that Seo would somehow suck in the AL. It's too easy to just say that a guy will suddenly perform worse relative to the league than other pitchers that make the switch, and that's the argument I guess you are trying to make. I look at his DIPS and see a guy who has a good shot of continuing to be above average (not Cy Young worthy like he would be if he did what he did last year for a whole season), but above average. And again, you get this for 3 years before he's a free agent.

Well instead of pitching against horrible offensive teams like he did last year (Cubs, Arizona, Washington, Florida), he would actually have to face teams with offenses and a DH. In my estimation, he won't. I'd bet you real money if you want if he comes to the AL and pitches for the Rays he'll be a below average pitcher if he pitches the entire year.



Maybe they could do better (you could say that about any trade ever), you just haven't suggested a single scenario yet in which they do. Your best offer so far is Wright and a prospect or Sean Henn, which isn't even close.

I'm not talking about strictly the Yankees, but other teams...

BJG
01-04-06, 01:19 AM
How can you look at the whole picture, hes become something entirely different when he came over here.

He was? If you standardize for park and league, the peripherals look kind of the same to me.


Well instead of pitching against horrible offensive teams like he did last year (Cubs, Arizona, Washington, Florida), he would actually have to face teams with offenses and a DH. In my estimation, he won't. I'd bet you real money if you want if he comes to the AL and pitches for the Rays he'll be a below average pitcher if he pitches the entire year.

I'll take that bet. I think you're way too focused on what happened over smaller sample sizes last year, for both guys. Seo was a good pitcher in 2003, as well, after all, and that over a whole season. when you start to weigh the whole career, as well as what he was doing in AAA last year, he's not bad. DIPS likes him now, liked him in 2003, and it just seems that 2004 was a strange year where he had trouble working with the changes Peterson was trying to make to him.


I'm not talking about strictly the Yankees, but other teams...

The problem is, though, that I think you are overrating Baez. His peripherals have never been that good, and a sudden drop in ERA when they haven't changed doesn't mean he suddenly became a better pitcher. I'd take the starter over the short reliever any day, especially if I can't afford to pay the short reliever, he has a year left until free agency, and I get the starter for 3 years. I can see why the Mets think they have to trade a starer, but leaving Matsui out of the equation, I don't think Seo for Baez is a good deal for the Mets for reasons above. It's certainly possible that someone could make a bigger mistake, but it would still be a mistake.

Irabu's Son
01-04-06, 10:55 AM
I'll take that bet. I think you're way too focused on what happened over smaller sample sizes last year, for both guys. Seo was a good pitcher in 2003, as well, after all, and that over a whole season. when you start to weigh the whole career, as well as what he was doing in AAA last year, he's not bad. DIPS likes him now, liked him in 2003, and it just seems that 2004 was a strange year where he had trouble working with the changes Peterson was trying to make to him.

I agree with you fully. Seo is an above average pitcher and I think he can be good. I had season tickets to the Binghamton Mets in 2001, and Seo put up a miniscule 1.94 ERA that year. It was like watching a video game every time he pitched.

JavyVazquezIsSick
01-04-06, 03:48 PM
I'll take that bet. I think you're way too focused on what happened over smaller sample sizes last year, for both guys. Seo was a good pitcher in 2003, as well, after all, and that over a whole season. when you start to weigh the whole career, as well as what he was doing in AAA last year, he's not bad. DIPS likes him now, liked him in 2003, and it just seems that 2004 was a strange year where he had trouble working with the changes Peterson was trying to make to him.



Jae Seo, along with left-handed reliever Tim Hamulack was traded from the Mets to the Dodgers for right-handed relievers Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll.

There goes our bet...