PDA

View Full Version : Buster Olney predicts Endy Chavez for Yankees' CF



DiMaggio5CF
11-15-05, 04:43 PM
Just now on Mike and the Mad Dog, Buster Olney said that he thinks the Yankees will get Endy Chavez of the Phillies to play CF.

Endy Chavez ESPN Player Card (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6733)

I didn't see a thread on this, so . . .

JMAN74
11-15-05, 04:44 PM
Just heard on Mike and The Dog now.

JMAN74
11-15-05, 04:46 PM
LOL you beat me to it by 15 seconds :P

Tifoso
11-15-05, 04:46 PM
Boy, I hope not.

JMAN74
11-15-05, 04:47 PM
how do u delete?

Col. Jacob Ruppert
11-15-05, 04:48 PM
Its so early in the off-season that its hard to predict something like that. Right now the Yankees are throwing stuff against the wall and seeing if anything sticks. There will be options out there as the off-season moves on.

yAnKeEfAn4EvR
11-15-05, 04:48 PM
might as well let crosby play

tdel23
11-15-05, 04:49 PM
it really is slim pickings out there

Tifoso
11-15-05, 04:50 PM
it really is slim pickings out there

The guy that rode the A Bomb in Dr. Strangelove? :eek:

HouseThatRingsBuild
11-15-05, 04:50 PM
Just now on Mike and the Mad Dog, Buster Olney said that he thinks the Yankees will get Endy Chavez of the Phillies to play CF.

Endy Chavez ESPN Player Card (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6733)

I didn't see a thread on this, so . . .


I just posted that in the Mike and the Maddog thread.

I had to look him up on mlb.com.

ppa79
11-15-05, 04:51 PM
How is he any better than Crosby? I would just go with Crosby.

Clive
11-15-05, 04:52 PM
The guy that rode the A Bomb in Dr. Strangelove? :eek:http://www.sfangels.com/images/Dr.%20Strangelove-%20more%20Slim%20Pickens%202.jpg

Yeehaw, inning-Endy! At least he shouldn't cost us all that much.

JMAN74
11-15-05, 04:52 PM
Suprised they didnt mention ABreu, but did mention Ichiro. He is available but the cost may be prohibitive.

Also mentioned Soriano as a fallback option for many teams going after other big-boppers. And it sounds like Tex wants to get rid of him pretty badly. How crazy would it be if Tex got desperate and we dont find a decent CF option...farfecthed now? Perhapsy.

But apparently a # of teams (including us) think he can make a damn good CF. Maybe Sori does it to don pinstripes again. Crazy. Maybe. But with this orginazation and the dearth of good options for CF , who knows?!

Tifoso
11-15-05, 04:53 PM
http://www.sfangels.com/images/Dr.%20Strangelove-%20more%20Slim%20Pickens%202.jpg

Yeehaw, inning-Endy! At least he shouldn't cost us all that much.


:lol: Nice :D

HouseThatRingsBuild
11-15-05, 04:55 PM
Suprised they didnt mention ABreu, but did mention Ichiro. He is available but the cost may be prohibitive.

Also mentioned Soriano as a fallback option for many teams going after other big-boppers. And it sounds like Tex wants to get rid of him pretty badly. How crazy would it be if Tex got desperate and we dont find a decent CF option...farfecthed now? Perhapsy.

But apparently a # of teams (including us) think he can make a damn good CF. Maybe Sori does it to don pinstripes again. Crazy. Maybe. But with this orginazation and the dearth of good options for CF , who knows?!

Buster also said Zito will likely go to the Dodgers.

JfromJersey
11-15-05, 04:55 PM
How is he any better than Crosby? I would just go with Crosby.

He's faster than Bubba. That's about it.

Dooley Womack
11-15-05, 04:55 PM
.243 OPB/.542 OPS! Woooo hooo!

JMAN74
11-15-05, 04:55 PM
How is he any better than Crosby? I would just go with Crosby.

He is better than Crosby, but not by much.

surge511
11-15-05, 04:56 PM
Wow, if we were to stoop that low, I'd rather see Bubba out there every day.

JeterRodriguezSheff
11-15-05, 04:58 PM
wow for the money he gets paid even I could have made a better prediction than that...

Ghost of Dan Pasqua
11-15-05, 05:06 PM
Chavez should be nothing more than a 4th outfielder, defensive replacement. If it is the case that the Yankees would go with some kind of Matsui or Giles defensive alignment in center, maybe Chavez would become a defensive replacement. I know that the Yankees want defense there, but I don't want to see Chavez in the lineup everyday.

Yankeeah
11-15-05, 05:09 PM
I would rather have Kevin Thompson, Bubba Crosby or Kevin Resse in CF. It would cost us zero.

I hardly doubt that Cash, or anyone for that matter is seriously considering this.

BJG
11-15-05, 05:11 PM
How is he any better than Crosby? I would just go with Crosby.

He's a substantially better fielder, I believe, and their bats are probably about the same looking forward. An ideal solution? Of course not, but this is what I mean when I say there is a lot of grey area between Bubba and the ideal solution. Just because you can't find that ideal, doesn't mean that you can't do something better than Bubba.

Course, I would still just go after Jaque Jones if they are unable to make a good deal for Wilerson or the like, and I really wouldn't be happy with Chavez, but it still would be better.

JMAN74
11-15-05, 05:13 PM
He's a substantially better fielder, I believe, and their bats are probably about the same looking forward. An ideal solution? Of course not, but this is what I mean when I say there is a lot of grey area between Bubba and the ideal solution. Just because you can't find that ideal, doesn't mean that you can't do something better than Bubba.

Course, I would still just go after Jaque Jones if they are unable to make a good deal for Wilerson or the like, and I really wouldn't be happy with Chavez, but it still would be better.

If hes truly a great or potential great defensive CF (Bubba isn't), I'd consider it. Our priority ISN'T offense, we already have that (and 2X the O that either World Series team had) .

BJG
11-15-05, 05:19 PM
If hes truly a great or potential great defensive CF (Bubba isn't), I'd consider it. Our priority ISN'T offense, we already have that (and 2X the O that either World Series team had) .

If there were only 2 centerfielders in the entire world and I had to choose between Endy and Bubba, I'd take Endy in a heartbeat. He really is a very good fielder. That being said, there are lots of centerfielders out there, so I would hope that the above situation is not one the Yankees feel they are faced with.

JeffWeaverFan
11-15-05, 05:25 PM
His numbers sure aren't good. He better be Willie Mays out there. Seriously, if these are the options why not take a flier on Milton Bradley? Also, why hasn't Jacque Jones name come up at all?

Tifoso
11-15-05, 05:26 PM
His numbers sure aren't good. He better be Willie Mays out there. Seriously, if these are the options why not take a flier on Milton Bradley? Also, why hasn't Jacque Jones name come up at all?

The Yanks apparently have no itch for Jacque.

Kulish29
11-15-05, 05:45 PM
He's faster than Bubba. That's about it.

He's also a better defender and has a stronger arm according to the scouting reports I've read.

LuckyLopez
11-15-05, 05:47 PM
In all fairness Olney did NOT predict that Chavez would be the Yankee's CFer in '06. Francessa pushed him to make a prediction about who the Yanks would have in place by New Year's. Buster tried to back off it for awhile and then picked Chavez. But he specifically compared it to Mike Lamb. So the point he was trying to make was that he thought that the Yanks would get Chavez as a backup plan but would pursue (and probably get) something better further into the hot stove season. But he didn't make a guess at what that better thing would be (as he pretty much poked holes in all the main options).

Kulish29
11-15-05, 05:47 PM
The Phillies will probably non-tender him so, he could be had for just cash.

gold23
11-15-05, 05:59 PM
He's a substantially better fielder, I believe, and their bats are probably about the same looking forward. An ideal solution? Of course not, but this is what I mean when I say there is a lot of grey area between Bubba and the ideal solution. Just because you can't find that ideal, doesn't mean that you can't do something better than Bubba.

Course, I would still just go after Jaque Jones if they are unable to make a good deal for Wilerson or the like, and I really wouldn't be happy with Chavez, but it still would be better.

Absolutely. He is a better fielder than Bubba. He can fly, gets good reads, and is simply a fine defensive CF. Offensively, Bubba has more pop. But Chavez probably handles the bat a little better. His issue is that he's far from selective.

Scouts really like Chavez' talent, but he needs to be more selective at the plate to be a legitimate major league starter. If he could walk 60 times a year, I think he'd hit in the .280 range, steal bags, and play GG caliber CF. Which would be the perfect fit for the Yanks- an inexpensive CF that can field, doesn't kill you at the plate, and can run like the wind from the #9 spot when he reaches.

He's not overmatched at the major league level- he's just not a very good offensive player. The average is fine- two almost full seasons as a starter, and he hit .251 and .277. If he walked another 30 times and duplicated the latter average, he'd be a perfectly fine solution.

Lastly.....he won't cost much at all. Almost a no-brainer if he comes cheaply, which he likely would.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:00 PM
His numbers sure aren't good. He better be Willie Mays out there. Seriously, if these are the options why not take a flier on Milton Bradley? Also, why hasn't Jacque Jones name come up at all?


Bradley has all the talent in the world, but two major issues- he's a MAJOR headcase and he is ALWAYS injured. Always. Expecting 550 at bats from him would be foolish- whether due to suspension or injury. And he was banged up a ton for Cleveland as well. I just think the Yanks believe he is too risky all around.

BJG
11-15-05, 06:05 PM
Absolutely. He is a better fielder than Bubba. He can fly, gets good reads, and is simply a fine defensive CF. Offensively, Bubba has more pop. But Chavez probably handles the bat a little better. His issue is that he's far from selective.

Scouts really like Chavez' talent, but he needs to be more selective at the plate to be a legitimate major league starter. If he could walk 60 times a year, I think he'd hit in the .280 range, steal bags, and play GG caliber CF. Which would be the perfect fit for the Yanks- an inexpensive CF that can field, doesn't kill you at the plate, and can run like the wind from the #9 spot when he reaches.

He's not overmatched at the major league level- he's just not a very good offensive player. The average is fine- two almost full seasons as a starter, and he hit .251 and .277. If he walked another 30 times and duplicated the latter average, he'd be a perfectly fine solution.

Lastly.....he won't cost much at all. Almost a no-brainer if he comes cheaply, which he likely would.

This is taking it a little too far, in my opinion. He isn't going to double his walk output at his age. He is the player he is.

Based on Lopez's post, it would seem that Olney views Chavez as a guy who will take Bubba's spot on the bench, not Bubba's job as a starter unless something goes wrong. As I said, if given a choice between the two, I'd take Chavez too, and there's nothing wrong with a marginal move like this to, in the long run, improve the bench.

JeffWeaverFan
11-15-05, 06:11 PM
Bradley has all the talent in the world, but two major issues- he's a MAJOR headcase and he is ALWAYS injured. Always. Expecting 550 at bats from him would be foolish- whether due to suspension or injury. And he was banged up a ton for Cleveland as well. I just think the Yanks believe he is too risky all around.
He's relatively cheap so have a backup plan like Chavez and there you go. Or, just sign Jacque Jones to play CF.

njdhockey
11-15-05, 06:13 PM
As many have said I will repeat. There is no point in getting Chavez, he is barely better than Bubba and if the Yankees are going the cheap route then they might as well use Bubba. Although I am confident Cashman will get the job done and get a servicable CFer without giving up Cano or prospects.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:17 PM
This is taking it a little too far, in my opinion. He isn't going to double his walk output at his age. He is the player he is.

Based on Lopez's post, it would seem that Olney views Chavez as a guy who will take Bubba's spot on the bench, not Bubba's job as a starter unless something goes wrong. As I said, if given a choice between the two, I'd take Chavez too, and there's nothing wrong with a marginal move like this to, in the long run, improve the bench.

You are probably right, but his minor league numbers average out close 60 walks per full season....so I don't know if it would be a total suprise if he showed improvement. He's really only had two seasons of major league play.

Again....if he stayed at his current production level, he'd be a poor hitter. However, a guy who can hit .270 from the 9th spot and field his position at a well above average clip could probably survive in the Yankee lineup without creating a terrible hole.

The Yanks were winning with Womack hitting way worse than that and playing a subpar CF.

Lastly....an Endy Chavez at .270, .315 obp, 30 sb, and excellent D is probably better than Bernie Williams '05. And I agree that worst case, you have an option for the bench (with the current defensive alignment, I wouldn't mind an extra glove that can also be used as a valuable pinch runner).

gold23
11-15-05, 06:18 PM
He's relatively cheap so have a backup plan like Chavez and there you go. Or, just sign Jacque Jones to play CF.


If it was only the injury issue, I would understand. He would now be on the third team- the previous two couldn't stand him. To the point that he would have been almost given away twice. No denying his talent....but to believe he could/would change might be foolish.

5 years ago, I might have said sure. But the clubhouse is no longer as tight as it was.....

JeffWeaverFan
11-15-05, 06:21 PM
If it was only the injury issue, I would understand. He would now be on the third team- the previous two couldn't stand him. To the point that he would have been almost given away twice. No denying his talent....but to believe he could/would change might be foolish.

5 years ago, I might have said sure. But the clubhouse is no longer as tight as it was.....
We don't disagree. Just given out CF situation, I would take the risk. At worst, he's a complete nut and we trade him before the deadline.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:28 PM
We don't disagree. Just given out CF situation, I would take the risk. At worst, he's a complete nut and we trade him before the deadline.


It would be a DFA, as third time would be a charm. I'm not fully opposed to the idea, though I would prefer the Dodgers cut him loose in a few weeks and maybe sign him to a short term or incentive laden deal.

He's talented, and has .300-30-100 potential with a decent glove.

longtimeyankeefan
11-15-05, 06:33 PM
His numbers sure aren't good. He better be Willie Mays out there. Seriously, if these are the options why not take a flier on Milton Bradley? Also, why hasn't Jacque Jones name come up at all?

One reason might be money and/or years - I have not read or heard anything that suggests Jones is asking for the moon, but could it be that his agent is trying to argue that he should be getting Matsui/Giles like dollars in this contract? Say four years/$30M?

Jones made $5M this past season and has seen his offensive numbers decline each of the last two years. While his 1999 - 2003 seasons were worth spending money on as a free agent, his 2004 -2005 numbers are merely average.

It will be interesting to see what he signs for. IMO, any team that gives him more than three years at $5M per year with reachable incentives is overspending.

hardrain
11-15-05, 06:35 PM
Please no. This is the guy Frank Robinson ran out of town. That OBP is Womackian.
No. No. No.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:38 PM
One reason might be money and/or years - I have not read or heard anything that suggests Jones is asking for the moon, but could it be that his agent is trying to argue that he should be getting Matsui/Giles like dollars in this contract? Say four years/$30M?

Jones made $5M this past season and has seen his offensive numbers decline each of the last two years. While his 1999 - 2003 seasons were worth spending money on as a free agent, his 2004 -2005 numbers are merely average.

It will be interesting to see what he signs for. IMO, any team that gives him more than three years at $5M per year with reachable incentives is overspending.

He doesn't have a ton of experience in CF, though IIRC he has played it well. Additionally...he's had NO quality hitters surrounding him. Last year he was basically it. I don't think he's a .250 hitter.

BJG
11-15-05, 06:46 PM
You are probably right, but his minor league numbers average out close 60 walks per full season....so I don't know if it would be a total suprise if he showed improvement. He's really only had two seasons of major league play.

Again....if he stayed at his current production level, he'd be a poor hitter. However, a guy who can hit .270 from the 9th spot and field his position at a well above average clip could probably survive in the Yankee lineup without creating a terrible hole.

The Yanks were winning with Womack hitting way worse than that and playing a subpar CF.

Lastly....an Endy Chavez at .270, .315 obp, 30 sb, and excellent D is probably better than Bernie Williams '05. And I agree that worst case, you have an option for the bench (with the current defensive alignment, I wouldn't mind an extra glove that can also be used as a valuable pinch runner).

1. Minor league numbers have predictive value, not correlary value.

2. Of course he would be a terrible hole. If the Yankees were better than their competition, than a hole wouldn't be a big deal. They aren't.

BJG
11-15-05, 06:47 PM
He doesn't have a ton of experience in CF, though IIRC he has played it well. Additionally...he's had NO quality hitters surrounding him. Last year he was basically it. I don't think he's a .250 hitter.

He came up as a centerfielder, actually. He just happens to have been on a team where there was an incumbent.

sugmasterflex
11-15-05, 06:48 PM
Probably for the bench...

longtimeyankeefan
11-15-05, 06:49 PM
He doesn't have a ton of experience in CF, though IIRC he has played it well. Additionally...he's had NO quality hitters surrounding him. Last year he was basically it. I don't think he's a .250 hitter.

He has been a .250 hitter the last two seasons - it may well be a valid point that he did not have much protection in the Twins lineup, but I don't know that I want to risk any sort of a big contract on him given his last two seasons productivity.

Also, is he really a CFer or are we looking at another Matsui level CFer here? If its only Matsui level and we are going to go with that approach, then I would rather Brian Giles and his production over Jones.

Sam18
11-15-05, 06:50 PM
.243 OPB/.542 OPS! Woooo hooo!

243??!!!! Is he scared of firstbase or something?

BJG
11-15-05, 06:52 PM
One reason might be money and/or years - I have not read or heard anything that suggests Jones is asking for the moon, but could it be that his agent is trying to argue that he should be getting Matsui/Giles like dollars in this contract? Say four years/$30M?

Jones made $5M this past season and has seen his offensive numbers decline each of the last two years. While his 1999 - 2003 seasons were worth spending money on as a free agent, his 2004 -2005 numbers are merely average.

It will be interesting to see what he signs for. IMO, any team that gives him more than three years at $5M per year with reachable incentives is overspending.

Nothing terribly wrong with his 2005, actually. The league as a whole has declined a bit. 2002 is really the only outlier on the high end.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:52 PM
1. Minor league numbers have predictive value, not correlary value.

2. Of course he would be a terrible hole. If the Yankees were better than their competition, than a hole wouldn't be a big deal. They aren't.


Ok, wrongly stated. His position in the lineup would be a hole. But he would add in places that the Yankees need addition- mainly, CF defense. He wouldn't cost anything $-wise, and as such may allow them to pay a bit more for a reliever, etc.

My point was that he is certainly not a perfect fit. But that I could live with it, since he'd play above average defense for an offensively gifted club. The Yankees had a top 2 offense this year with 2 "holes" in the lineup, occasionally more.

32elston
11-15-05, 06:52 PM
Honestly these writers are reaching for stories. They know keeping the Yankees in the news are the only way to keep baseball stories going in the off-season. Their jobs depend on it. If the Yankees decide that they will have one less pinstripe on the uniform next season it will be covered in a 5 parter.

gold23
11-15-05, 06:53 PM
He has been a .250 hitter the last two seasons - it may well be a valid point that he did not have much protection in the Twins lineup, but I don't know that I want to risk any sort of a big contract on him given his last two seasons productivity.

Also, is he really a CFer or are we looking at another Matsui level CFer here? If its only Matsui level and we are going to go with that approach, then I would rather Brian Giles and his production over Jones.

Numbers I've seen from a few years back indicate he is significantly better in CF than Matsui. I don't know if he'd hit .300 again, but he's a better hitter than .250.

BJG
11-15-05, 06:54 PM
Ok, wrongly stated. His position in the lineup would be a hole. But he would add in places that the Yankees need addition- mainly, CF defense. He wouldn't cost anything $-wise, and as such may allow them to pay a bit more for a reliever, etc.

My point was that he is certainly not a perfect fit. But that I could live with it, since he'd play above average defense for an offensively gifted club. The Yankees had a top 2 offense this year with 2 "holes" in the lineup, occasionally more.

the yankees also barely made the playoffs and got knocked out in the first round. there are a bunch of guys I'd rather have than Chavez. I'd just rather have Chavez than Bubba.

nyyanksfan20
11-15-05, 08:04 PM
If Endy or Bubba is in center I think we have to sign Giles.

SINCE77 2
11-15-05, 08:23 PM
I would be fine with this if we also got Wilkerson to play RF/LF/1B and picked up Eduardo Perez to PH/DH.

longtimeyankeefan
11-15-05, 08:43 PM
Numbers I've seen from a few years back indicate he is significantly better in CF than Matsui. I don't know if he'd hit .300 again, but he's a better hitter than .250.

The numbers that I see on Jones demonstrate that he has not played CF since the 2000 season - and in that season he played more games in LF than CF. He did not play CF at all in the 2002 - 2004 seasons.

This past season, he played a total of ten games in CF (9 starts) with a RF/9 that was 30% below the league average - admittedly a small sample size, but a distressing number nonetheless. Hideki, in 28 games in CF this past season, had a RF/9 that was 17% higher than Jacque's, so I am not certain what numbers you are seeing that indicate he is "significantly better" in CF than Matsui, unless you are referring to numbers that are five seasons old (1999 & 2000).

As far as whether or not he is "better than a .250 hitter", we shall have to see. His season stats have clearly declined in each of the last two years, dropping from a .304/.333/.464 season in 2003 to a .249/.319/.438 season this year. There may well be reasons for this decline - lack of protection being one - but I fail to see how people can automatically assume that he will rebound, even at his young age, when the trend says otherwise.

So, again I state - if we are going to go with a "Matsui in CF" type logic (even if its not Matsui in CF), I would rather we pursue the career .299/.413/.542 Brian Giles, who played 17 games in CF this past season with a 2.17 RF/9, than a questionable (IMO) Jacque Jones.

BJG
11-15-05, 09:15 PM
The numbers that I see on Jones demonstrate that he has not played CF since the 2000 season - and in that season he played more games in LF than CF. He did not play CF at all in the 2002 - 2004 seasons.

This past season, he played a total of ten games in CF (9 starts) with a RF/9 that was 30% below the league average - admittedly a small sample size, but a distressing number nonetheless. Hideki, in 28 games in CF this past season, had a RF/9 that was 17% higher than Jacque's, so I am not certain what numbers you are seeing that indicate he is "significantly better" in CF than Matsui, unless you are referring to numbers that are five seasons old (1999 & 2000).

As far as whether or not he is "better than a .250 hitter", we shall have to see. His season stats have clearly declined in each of the last two years, dropping from a .304/.333/.464 season in 2003 to a .249/.319/.438 season this year. There may well be reasons for this decline - lack of protection being one - but I fail to see how people can automatically assume that he will rebound, even at his young age, when the trend says otherwise.

So, again I state - if we are going to go with a "Matsui in CF" type logic (even if its not Matsui in CF), I would rather we pursue the career .299/.413/.542 Brian Giles, who played 17 games in CF this past season with a 2.17 RF/9, than a questionable (IMO) Jacque Jones.

1. The issue is not how many games Jones has played in center, it's how good he is at it. He is a natural centerfielder who happens to have spent his career on the same team as Hunter. He is a well above average corner outfielder. He would be an above average centerfielder. I don't think you can say this for either Matsui or Giles.

2. If you mean to say that his last 2 seasons haven't been as good as 2003, that's fine, but saying he's declined the last two years implies a trend that isn't there. He declined from 2003 to 2004. He improved from 2004 to 2005. His OPS+ over those years: 106, 90, 99. So basically, what he did last year is in line with his career 101 OPS+. On top of that, no one wants to play him out there straight...I always say he needs a platoon mate, which is fine, but something the Twins didn't do. Doing so would result in better rate stats.

The result is an above average CF offensively and defensively. I'll take that any day.

whalers
11-15-05, 09:16 PM
So, again I state - if we are going to go with a "Matsui in CF" type logic (even if its not Matsui in CF), I would rather we pursue the career .299/.413/.542 Brian Giles, who played 17 games in CF this past season with a 2.17 RF/9, than a questionable (IMO) Jacque Jones.

What are and where can you find RF/9 stats?

yanksphan
11-15-05, 09:20 PM
What are and where can you find RF/9 stats?

www.baseball-reference.com





<tt>RF9</tt> - Range Factor per nine innings <tt>9 * (A + PO)/ Inn</tt>

MassNYYfan
11-15-05, 09:20 PM
Just gonna act like I didn't even SEE this thread.

:barf:

I Love Wang
11-15-05, 09:25 PM
I wouldn't bother getting Chavez. He's probably a worse hitter than Crosby. He had a 43 OPS+ this year.

Stupid Flanders
11-15-05, 09:36 PM
What? Olney is on crack.

CptCrunch
11-15-05, 09:39 PM
I wouldn't bother getting Chavez. He's probably a worse hitter than Crosby. He had a 43 OPS+ this year.

Wow, we might as well throw Skippy out there.

BillBuckner
11-15-05, 09:55 PM
What? Olney is on crack.
Not as much crack as Gammons anyway.

longtimeyankeefan
11-15-05, 10:05 PM
1. The issue is not how many games Jones has played in center, it's how good he is at it. He is a natural centerfielder who happens to have spent his career on the same team as Hunter. He is a well above average corner outfielder. He would be an above average centerfielder. I don't think you can say this for either Matsui or Giles.

IMO, the issue of when Jones played CF is very material to the question. You are assuming that his ability to play CF five or six seasons ago means that he can play that position now. I assume that the fact that the Twins chose not to play Jones in CF when Hunter was sitting means that they see him more as a corner OFer.


2. If you mean to say that his last 2 seasons haven't been as good as 2003, that's fine, but saying he's declined the last two years implies a trend that isn't there. He declined from 2003 to 2004. He improved from 2004 to 2005. His OPS+ over those years: 106, 90, 99. So basically, what he did last year is in line with his career 101 OPS+. On top of that, no one wants to play him out there straight...I always say he needs a platoon mate, which is fine, but something the Twins didn't do. Doing so would result in better rate stats.

His OPS plus is up this season in large part because the league OPS dropped by 20 points, not because of a great improvement in his OPS.

In addition, his career OPS+ is greatly improved by his one stellar season (2002) - take out his 2002 number and his career average OPS drops to 96.

But I don't simply look at OPS+ to determine if a player is showing signs of a decline. His BA dropped another five points this last year. To go from .304 to .254 to .249 is, to me, disturbing.


The result is an above average CF offensively and defensively. I'll take that any day.

That's your opinion. My opinion is that we will have a corner OFer playing out of position. If I am going to have that scenario pan out, I would prefer to have Giles over Jones.

My preferred scenario, however, is to have a true CFer to patrol CF, not a corner OFer pretending.

BJG
11-15-05, 10:23 PM
IMO, the issue of when Jones played CF is very material to the question. You are assuming that his ability to play CF five or six seasons ago means that he can play that position now. I assume that the fact that the Twins chose not to play Jones in CF when Hunter was sitting means that they see him more as a corner OFer.

They did this for the same reason, I imagine, that Carl Crawford stayed in LF despite Baldelli's injury. It's just what teams do. If they had a better backup RF than a backup CF, Jones probably would have moved over.

Oh, and I'm not worried saying that his ability to play CF long ago means he can play it now. I'm saying that his ability to play RF now indicates that he would be fine in CF. The fact that he has played there in the past is merely an plus on this check mark...in other words, he's a good enough fielder to play center, and it wouldn't be something totally new for him.


His OPS plus is up this season in large part because the league OPS dropped by 20 points, not because of a great improvement in his OPS.

Yes, but his value only matters relative to the league. Jones' numbers didn't go down in a vaccuum...everyone's did. In addition, if you play him in CF, he only gains more relative value. If you find him a nice platoon mate, which the Twins never did, the team is even better off.


In addition, his career OPS+ is greatly improved by his one stellar season (2002) - take out his 2002 number and his career average OPS drops to 96.

Which would make his 99 OPS+ last year ABOVE this new career norm.


But I don't simply look at OPS+ to determine if a player is showing signs of a decline. His BA dropped another five points this last year. To go from .304 to .254 to .249 is, to me, disturbing.

I'm sorry, a 5 point swing in batting average means absolutely nothing to me in terms of predicting future performance. Batting averages are prone to fluctuation. He's managed to offset some of this by becoming more patient, and this is actually a good thing moving forward as he ages.


My preferred scenario, however, is to have a true CFer to patrol CF, not a corner OFer pretending.

Just because Jones in CF isn't your ideal solution, that doesn't make it a bad solution. It's certainly a better solution than Bubba.

JapanJobbers
11-15-05, 10:26 PM
I don't think Chavez is good enough with the glove to make up for his horrible, horrible offense. Same with Crosby.

Yankeeah
11-15-05, 10:44 PM
Ever see that South Park when Butters parents tried to sell him to Paris Hilton for 7 million dollars,and they spit their coffee out? That would be my reaction if Endy Chavez was the Yankees starting CFer next year

Fabien Brandy
11-15-05, 10:59 PM
His position in the lineup would be a hole.
Who you calling a-hole?

RhodeyYankee2638
11-15-05, 11:01 PM
RhodeyYankee predicts Buster Olney will die a virgin


Endy Chavez is pretty awful. He'd be a nice little 4th OF'er, not the starting centerfielder for the Yankees. I think Bernie Williams woould climb a bell tower if he found out Endy Chavez would be his valiant successor

Evil Empire
11-15-05, 11:02 PM
At least Bubba's on the team already. Go with him.

LuckyLopez
11-15-05, 11:02 PM
Honestly these writers are reaching for stories. They know keeping the Yankees in the news are the only way to keep baseball stories going in the off-season. Their jobs depend on it. If the Yankees decide that they will have one less pinstripe on the uniform next season it will be covered in a 5 parter.
Honestly, that has absolutely nothing to do with this. Olney made this comment in a quick thing as part of a lengthy segment. He talked about Pujols, A-Rod, steroids, Clemens, and any number of other stories. He then gave his guesses as to which free agents would go where, which players would be traded, and how teams would fill their holes. When DIRECTLY asked who the Yanks would have in place "by New Year's" (and after he scoffed at making a prediction and Francessa said that he "wouldn't be held to it") he mentioned Chavez and then invoked the Lamb/A-Rod situation from a couple of years ago for what he might by Chavez. He then went down the regular list of CFers (Hunter, Bradley, Jones, etc) and gave his ideas on how likely they were (I forgot who it was that he eventually settled on as who he thought would be the CFer at season's start).

This has nothing to do with writers trying to create stories or grasping at straws. It was a writer who is a regular contributor to a show doing his regular spot touching on all things in baseball and making a passing comment when asked a direct question. This is about fans grasping on these passing comments and blowing them up as something more than they were originally intended to be (which I don't mean to be a shot at the original poster or anyone else... he could very well have not heard the full context and thought it was more).

I Love Wang
11-15-05, 11:06 PM
Honestly, that has absolutely nothing to do with this. Olney made this comment in a quick thing as part of a lengthy segment. He talked about Pujols, A-Rod, steroids, Clemens, and any number of other stories. He then gave his guesses as to which free agents would go where, which players would be traded, and how teams would fill their holes. When DIRECTLY asked who the Yanks would have in place "by New Year's" (and after he scoffed at making a prediction and Francessa said that he "wouldn't be held to it") he mentioned Chavez and then invoked the Lamb/A-Rod situation from a couple of years ago for what he might by Chavez. He then went down the regular list of CFers (Hunter, Bradley, Jones, etc) and gave his ideas on how likely they were (I forgot who it was that he eventually settled on as who he thought would be the CFer at season's start).

This has nothing to do with writers trying to create stories or grasping at straws. It was a writer who is a regular contributor to a show doing his regular spot touching on all things in baseball and making a passing comment when asked a direct question. This is about fans grasping on these passing comments and blowing them up as something more than they were originally intended to be (which I don't mean to be a shot at the original poster or anyone else... he could very well have not heard the full context and thought it was more).

Bam. Take a bow, man.

JeffWeaverFan
11-15-05, 11:27 PM
One reason might be money and/or years - I have not read or heard anything that suggests Jones is asking for the moon, but could it be that his agent is trying to argue that he should be getting Matsui/Giles like dollars in this contract? Say four years/$30M?

Jones made $5M this past season and has seen his offensive numbers decline each of the last two years. While his 1999 - 2003 seasons were worth spending money on as a free agent, his 2004 -2005 numbers are merely average.

It will be interesting to see what he signs for. IMO, any team that gives him more than three years at $5M per year with reachable incentives is overspending.
I don't think it would take more than a 2 year/$16 million deal with an option year to get Jones.

LuckyLopez
11-15-05, 11:43 PM
Bam. Take a bow, man.
I probably just gave more evidence for that poster who accused me of being a bitter writer the other day. ;)

I'm just a little amazed at how a passing little comment by Olney has managed to get blown up so much. Or at least I'm amazed that I watched the entire process and can't even point to anyone for having done something wrong. It just got quoted out of context and the next thing you know people are arguing Endy Chavez as starting CFer and trashing on Olney for being insane enough to predict something he never predicted.

I don't mean to offend anyone. Its just watching it go from one extreme to another has been weird.

vegematarian
11-16-05, 12:05 AM
How is he any better than Crosby? I would just go with Crosby.


What he said.

JeffWeaverFan
11-16-05, 12:25 AM
What he said.
He's better defensively.

I Love Wang
11-16-05, 02:51 AM
He's better defensively.

If he's non-tendered, and we can get him for 500k or less, I'd sign him as a bench player. He should not be acquired as a starter.

DontHateOnNumber2
11-16-05, 11:35 AM
might as well let crosby play

Really, you'll probably get a better OPS out of Bubba. Probably.

gold23
11-16-05, 12:53 PM
the yankees also barely made the playoffs and got knocked out in the first round. there are a bunch of guys I'd rather have than Chavez. I'd just rather have Chavez than Bubba.


We fully agree on this point.

surge511
11-16-05, 01:00 PM
Well as long as Olney doesn't think Chavez will be starting, good. Otherwise, I would have to wonder how he keeps his job.

gold23
11-16-05, 01:05 PM
Another name I heard thrown out was Austin Kearns. I believe his CF experience is somewhat limited (below 80 games), but he is supposedly adequate there. Injury questions, and how much he woudl cost, would be important. But the kid can and should hit. Could develop into a monster player if he stayed healthy.

effdamets
11-16-05, 01:18 PM
Why can't the Yankees just sign a stop gap centerfielder, and draft a guy (or two) for the future? Isn't that a better idea? (see Bernie, or Jeter, or Rivera...)

ppa79
11-16-05, 01:22 PM
Why can't the Yankees just sign a stop gap centerfielder, and draft a guy (or two) for the future? Isn't that a better idea? (see Bernie, or Jeter, or Rivera...)

I think all we need is a stopgap too for about 2 years. We've already drafted the guys for the future, Gardner, Battle, Henry, and Jackson.

gold23
11-16-05, 01:27 PM
I think all we need is a stopgap too for about 2 years. We've already drafted the guys for the future, Gardner, Battle, Henry, and Jackson.


Gardner was a poor pick, by the way. Drafted amazingly too high for his skills. Good defender and lightning fast- but he won't hit for power. Dumb pick.

PeteRFNY
11-16-05, 01:32 PM
The guy that rode the A Bomb in Dr. Strangelove? :eek:

Also, Hollis P. Wood in the film "1941".

http://www.thelin.net/laurent/cinema/photos/1941/slim_pickens.jpg

"....you ain't gonna get SH*T out of me...."! :D

Tifoso
11-16-05, 01:35 PM
Also, Hollis P. Wood in the film "1941".

http://www.thelin.net/laurent/cinema/photos/1941/slim_pickens.jpg

"....you ain't gonna get SH*T out of me...."! :D


Link broken for me, amico mio. :(

I Love Wang
11-16-05, 01:54 PM
Gardner was a poor pick, by the way. Drafted amazingly too high for his skills. Good defender and lightning fast- but he won't hit for power. Dumb pick.

He has shown solid gap power, and, more importantly, buttresses his speed with a solid ability to get on base, both by walking and hitting for average. I suspect he will be a quality major league CFer within the next 2 years.

BJG
11-16-05, 02:04 PM
He has shown solid gap power, and, more importantly, buttresses his speed with a solid ability to get on base, both by walking and hitting for average. I suspect he will be a quality major league CFer within the next 2 years.

Any analysis of short season or rookie ball performance is a bit of a slippery slope. I'd just be happy he adjusted to the wooden bat and wait to see what he does in full season ball before making a long term judgement either way.

27IsNext
11-16-05, 02:29 PM
Gardner was a poor pick, by the way. Drafted amazingly too high for his skills. Good defender and lightning fast- but he won't hit for power. Dumb pick.

Totally wrong. A player like him is a valuable asset at the top of the lineup. A Juan Pierre type is actually not a bad thing, so long as he's not Juan Pierre as far the OBP department. (He isn't.)

gold23
11-16-05, 03:00 PM
He has shown solid gap power, and, more importantly, buttresses his speed with a solid ability to get on base, both by walking and hitting for average. I suspect he will be a quality major league CFer within the next 2 years.

He was wildly overmatched in college with the breaking ball. He won't see good ones until this year. We'll see.

BillBuckner
11-16-05, 03:16 PM
Ever see that South Park when Butters parents tried to sell him to Paris Hilton for 7 million dollars,and they spit their coffee out? That would be my reaction if Endy Chavez was the Yankees starting CFer next year
That was a great episode. :lol:

TEPLimey
11-16-05, 03:19 PM
This team has no use for Endy Chavez. Why would we get a more expensive version of Bubby Crosby?

Buster Olney is bored and decided to throw out a name or two based on his crystal meth-induced hallucinations.

BRNXBMRS
11-16-05, 03:29 PM
Why not just stay with Crosby and see who becomes available at the trading deadline, instead of overpaying for someone in the off season.

I Love Wang
11-16-05, 04:12 PM
Any analysis of short season or rookie ball performance is a bit of a slippery slope. I'd just be happy he adjusted to the wooden bat and wait to see what he does in full season ball before making a long term judgement either way.

Going by what I've seen, which includes a dominant perfomance in college, and a very nice performance in his first taste of pro ball, Gardner looks like a good prospect. There is certainly nothing there to tell me he was a bad pick.

JavyVazquezIsSick
11-16-05, 04:13 PM
If there were only 2 centerfielders in the entire world and I had to choose between Endy and Bubba, I'd take Endy in a heartbeat. He really is a very good fielder. That being said, there are lots of centerfielders out there, so I would hope that the above situation is not one the Yankees feel they are faced with.

The thing is one cost nothing and the other cost prospects, would the difference in defensive and offensive output be worth the prospects...

I Love Wang
11-16-05, 04:14 PM
He was wildly overmatched in college with the breaking ball. He won't see good ones until this year. We'll see.

While this may sound silly, how is a guy who is "wildly overmatched" by any sort of pitch hitting .447?

I Love Wang
11-16-05, 04:15 PM
The thing is one cost nothing and the other cost prospects, would the difference in defensive and offensive output be worth the prospects...

What "prospects" is Endy Chavez going to cost? By all accounts it sounds as though he is about to be non-tendered.

gold23
11-16-05, 06:49 PM
While this may sound silly, how is a guy who is "wildly overmatched" by any sort of pitch hitting .447?


First, the Yanks could have drafted him in the 7th or 8th round. Secondly, college players who do not play in the absolute top conferences face an inordinate amount of poor pitching. A guy with wheels like Gardner is going to leg out a ton of hits as well (and he led his conference in infield hits the last two years).

The scouting reports on him pre-draft indicated that he was routinely overmatched by hard breaking pitches. You don't see a ton of good, hard breaking stuff in college.

Can he adjust? He could. But his upside isn't that great, which is why they drafted him a bit early. They made a panic selection- someone who projects to possibly help them in a spot they were sorely lacking at the time of the draft.

buntsalot2
11-16-05, 09:31 PM
the Boss's days are numbered... no way will the Yanks go for a no-name-CFer. They will bust a gut trying to get Giles first...
King George must be like an aging Vito Corleone; he wants to win one more championship before he expires IMHO. Expect Ca$hman to open a spare vault and buy credibility in CF and the Bullpen.

Jasbro
11-17-05, 01:35 PM
the Boss's days are numbered... no way will the Yanks go for a no-name-CFer. They will bust a gut trying to get Giles first...
King George must be like an aging Vito Corleone; he wants to win one more championship before he expires IMHO.

Vito Corleone wanted a championship?

Dr. Gonzo
11-17-05, 02:03 PM
Vito Corleone wanted a championship?
and he wore turtlenecks

yankeebot
11-17-05, 02:13 PM
King George must be like an aging Vito Corleone; he wants to win one more championship before he expires IMHO.With Cashman as Michael Corleone "Just when I thought that I was out they pull me back in."

Jasbro
11-17-05, 02:17 PM
With Cashman as Michael Corleone "Just when I thought that I was out they pull me back in."

And they all seem to have a knack for making offers people can't refuse, albeit for different reasons...

Jaeho
11-17-05, 04:10 PM
First, the Yanks could have drafted him in the 7th or 8th round. Secondly, college players who do not play in the absolute top conferences face an inordinate amount of poor pitching. A guy with wheels like Gardner is going to leg out a ton of hits as well (and he led his conference in infield hits the last two years).

The scouting reports on him pre-draft indicated that he was routinely overmatched by hard breaking pitches. You don't see a ton of good, hard breaking stuff in college.

Can he adjust? He could. But his upside isn't that great, which is why they drafted him a bit early. They made a panic selection- someone who projects to possibly help them in a spot they were sorely lacking at the time of the draft.

This is an extremely silly statement. You have no proof that he should have been drafted in the 7th-8th round. Who are you? Theo Epstein? Most people(who don't work for the NY media) were very high on the Yankee's draft.

Did you ever see him play? I have seen him hit a curveball on a 0-2 count for a single and later take a slider the other way for a hit in the same game. So your pre-draft scouting reports are worthless. Get some new material. Most in the minor league forum really like Gardner. You seem to be the only person who thinks a guy with his talent and ability was a poor pick. :mad:

gold23
11-17-05, 04:16 PM
This is an extremely silly statement. You have no proof that he should have been drafted in the 7th-8th round. Who are you? Theo Epstein? Most people(who don't work for the NY media) were very high on the Yankee's draft.

Did you ever see him play? I have seen him hit a curveball on a 0-2 count for a single and later take a slider the other way for a hit in the same game. So your pre-draft scouting reports are worthless. Get some new material. Most in the minor league forum really like Gardner. You seem to be the only person who thinks a guy with his talent and ability was a poor pick. :mad:


I've seen him play probably 15-20 games at CofC. I work in sports, and know many regional scouts in the South as well as a few of the cross checkers. It's generally inconsequential, other than to refute your claims that I simply look at my computer to develop my theory about this kid. My comment on Gardner is based on the combination of both what I saw and the reports. He's a great guy, extremely fast, and a fabulous defender. But there is not a scout who watched his games (and the Yanks and Marlins were the only two clubs to track him consistently last year) who believed he should have gone where he did.

I did not say he doesn't possess talent. I said he was drafted WAY earlier than he should have been. Direct quote from one of them- "He's Doug Glanville without the pop".

gold23
11-17-05, 04:22 PM
Listen...I hope the kid develops into a major league player. But to draft someone that high who projects out to Juan Pierre is a little early.

He played his ball about 5 miles from the Yankee low A club this past year.....he impressed them a ton when the Tampa brass was up before the RiverDog season.

yank4life2005
11-17-05, 07:49 PM
Does anyone have a detailed scouting report on Chavez?

Dooley Womack
11-18-05, 11:06 AM
This is an extremely silly statement. You have no proof that he should have been drafted in the 7th-8th round. Who are you? Theo Epstein? Most people(who don't work for the NY media) were very high on the Yankee's draft.

Did you ever see him play? I have seen him hit a curveball on a 0-2 count for a single and later take a slider the other way for a hit in the same game. So your pre-draft scouting reports are worthless. Get some new material. Most in the minor league forum really like Gardner. You seem to be the only person who thinks a guy with his talent and ability was a poor pick. :mad:
Who are you? Bill Lajoie? The fact that YOU saw him hit a curveball on an 0-2 count is worthless to me and everybody else in this forum. Statements like this seem to be the norm. Ditto, your ridiculous comment - "Most in the minor league forum really like Gardner." Try getting a new persona-like trying to sound better informed- before you tell other forumers that what they are saying is worthless and for them to get new material.