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View Full Version : Jaret Wright: Sabermetric Viewpoints?



RIyankee
12-08-04, 11:02 AM
Since I'm weak on pitching sabermetrics does anyone have any thoughts? Comments?

Thanks!

son of mel hall
12-08-04, 12:52 PM
What is his ERA+ for '03 and over the course of his career?

I have a hazy memory of seeing a regression analysis that showed that playing for Mazzone took at least half a run off a pitcher's ERA. Mel Stottlemyer is no Leo Mazzone.

My impression is that Wright is a high risk/high reward kind of investment. He has better than average stuff and seems to be a battler, but I would expect him to perform erratically unless someone can tutor him in maintaining proper mechanics. The injury history has to be a concern. I don't have sabermetric support for these observations, as I am just now familiarizing myself with some of the fundamental concepts.

Feast or famine, boom or bust?

Irony Of It All
12-08-04, 03:43 PM
Originally posted by son of mel hall
I have a hazy memory of seeing a regression analysis that showed that playing for Mazzone took at least half a run off a pitcher's ERA. Mel Stottlemyer is no Leo Mazzone.

Probably from me... ;)


So, what's the veridict? Leo Mazzone is a damn good coach! Working with Leo is shaves off between .55 and .85 points of a pitcher's ERA. And I promise you, the results are not some artifact of some manipulation of the numbers to prove a point. In fact, my bias when I started this project was that Leo was a bit overrated. To put this in perspective, the standard deviation of ERA for pitchers in the sample was 1.36. Leo's boys gain about half of a standard deviation on their ERA. I think Schuerholz ought to take this number into arbitration hearings with pitchers. Also interesting is the fact that the effect seems to go away when pitchers leave. This may be because Mazzone imparts useful everyday help, not just new knowledge to fix an old problem, or maybe the Braves know when to dump guys. In any event I think it's clear Rob Neyer was not exaggerating when he suggested Leo Mazzone ought be in the Hall of Fame.
http://sabernomics.com/


My impression is that Wright is a high risk/high reward kind of investment. He has better than average stuff and seems to be a battler, but I would expect him to perform erratically unless someone can tutor him in maintaining proper mechanics. The injury history has to be a concern. I don't have sabermetric support for these observations, as I am just now familiarizing myself with some of the fundamental concepts.

Feast or famine, boom or bust?

My feelings exactly. At 3 years $22.5 million (or $15 million, or $21 million depending on who you believe), he was signed for at least a year too long and at minimum at least $1 million per year too much. He had a very good year in 2004, but there are some legitimate concerns: his health; how much influence Mazzone had on his success; whether or not it was just a fluke season. I don't really care for the signing, but I don't hate it either. It could easily make the Yankees look very smart, but at the same time they could look really stupid as well.

JeffWeaverFan
12-08-04, 05:24 PM
Here's my post in another thread where I got into some sabermetrics with Wright.

"Some more positives on Wright. 1. He was neither lucky nor unlucky last season as his FIP was 3.30 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/. And, his ERC was 3.20. That is good news. Bad news with Wright: He pitched in a very weak hitting division. The quality of batters he faced was .256/.327/.410. The AL average is .270/.336/.433 (credit goes to Irony of it All for those numbers) He also pitched in a pretty good pitchers park which showed with his splits. He had a 2.56 ERA at home and a 4.04 ERA."


He had an LD% of .185 last season. I'm not all that familiar with that stat so it would be best if either Wiffle or Irony (two that come to mind) comment on that.

He also only gave up 11 HR's last season and I doubt that will continue. The 2 other seasons where he pitched over 150 innings he gave up 18 HR's in 133 innings and 22 HR's in 192 innings.

Irony Of It All
12-08-04, 05:35 PM
Originally posted by JeffWeaverFan
He had an LD% of .185 last season. I'm not all that familiar with that stat so it would be best if either Wiffle or Irony (two that come to mind) comment on that.

He also only gave up 11 HR's last season and I doubt that will continue. The 2 other seasons where he pitched over 150 innings he gave up 18 HR's in 133 innings and 22 HR's in 192 innings.

NL league average is .182, so he was right about average. I wouldn't worry at all about that. He was likely a little lucky on balls in play - his DER was a bit high for such a low IF/FLY, average LD%, and a GB pitcher - but not enough to worry about it. And his FIP compared to his actual ERA seems to be representatvie of the amount of luck he had.

His HR/9 probably will probably go up a bit, but not very much; his G/F of 1.30 makes me feel very sure about that.

All it comes down to in my mind is whether or not it was just staying healthy or if it was Mazzone.

JeffWeaverFan
12-08-04, 05:51 PM
Originally posted by Irony Of It All


NL league average is .182, so he was right about average. I wouldn't worry at all about that. He was likely a little lucky on balls in play - his DER was a bit high for such a low IF/FLY, average LD%, and a GB pitcher - but not enough to worry about it. And his FIP compared to his actual ERA seems to be representatvie of the amount of luck he had.

His HR/9 probably will probably go up a bit, but not very much; his G/F of 1.30 makes me feel very sure about that.

All it comes down to in my mind is whether or not it was just staying healthy or if it was Mazzone.
Thanks for that analysis. Good stuff.

I would predict that Mazzone would subtract his ERA by at least .50.

reelbiggecko
12-09-04, 02:26 PM
Does anybody have stats on what Mel does to a pitcher's ERA? Although I might be afraid to see them..

CursetheReverse
12-22-04, 07:57 PM
Sabermetrics aside, when you come to New York, all that goes out the window it seems.

He is the Jeff Weaver of 2005. Time will tell if he stays that way. He never quite fully, as do many major leaguers, lived up the the hype he came into the league with.

SheffMVP11
12-23-04, 12:51 AM
Originally posted by CursetheReverse
Sabermetrics aside, when you come to New York, all that goes out the window it seems.

He is the Jeff Weaver of 2005. Time will tell if he stays that way. He never quite fully, as do many major leaguers, lived up the the hype he came into the league with.

Wright was derailed by injuries though. Weaver wasn't, so I don't think that's a fair comparison.

ChewieTobbacca
12-23-04, 02:35 AM
Of course, that depends on whether last year was a result of being healthy or being under the influence of Mazzone

Keep in mind that a pitching coach does more than lower ERA - they also influence a pichers mechanics and teach them proper exercises to stay in shape. Mazzone has an excellent track record of keeping pitchers healthy - afterall, Maddux Glavine Smoltz more or less pitched healthy during there entire stretch.

So of course that remains to be seen whether Mel totally screws him up or if Wright has developed

CursetheReverse
12-23-04, 11:46 AM
Originally posted by SheffMVP11
Wright was derailed by injuries though. Weaver wasn't, so I don't think that's a fair comparison.

Wright's injuries were Physical...Weavers Mechanical and mental. Seems fair to me.

Wright has really only had one decent season...

SheffMVP11
12-23-04, 12:12 PM
Originally posted by CursetheReverse
Wright's injuries were Physical...Weavers Mechanical and mental. Seems fair to me.


You just illustrated why it's not a good comparison. Neither pitcher has established the career they were expected to so far because of completely different reasons.

CursetheReverse
12-23-04, 03:18 PM
Originally posted by SheffMVP11
You just illustrated why it's not a good comparison. Neither pitcher has established the career they were expected to so far because of completely different reasons.

I respectfully disagree...and injury is an injury, be a physical one..a mechanics tic or a mental one. It is still something they have to overcome.

These guys are damaged...sending them to the hothouse that NY is not going to improve the odds.

If anyone can show a good reason...a consistent reason NY should have signed Weaver...or Wright...then please do so. A reason beyond.."He had a great year last season"...or "he has potential." When it comes right down to it...Yankee scouts suck.

Buzah!
01-20-05, 01:43 AM
Wright is gonna be one of the interesting stories this year. His HR rate might not have a major climb because last year he changed his approach and featured more two seamers down in the zone. Those are harder to hit out if he's keeping them down. He also has a quality split. Hopefully, our old pitchers will help him out with some tips. I don't trust Mel at all.

Euclis
01-20-05, 02:59 AM
What is his ERA+ for '03 and over the course of his career?

His era+ in '03 was 54. His era+ in '04 was 131.

In 1998 and 1999 (the only years before 2004 in which he made more than 16 starts in a season), his era+ was 102 and 83, very mediocre. I'd worry about his ability to hold up after last year...he pitched in 186.3 innings in 2004, or about 30 more than his IP in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 combined. That's quite a leap.

BX180
01-20-05, 08:45 AM
...he pitched in 186.3 innings in 2004, or about 30 more than his IP in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 combined. That's quite a leap.

Wasn't he hurt during that span? If he was then I could see why he has 30+ inning pitched in a healthy year on the mound....

Euclis
01-20-05, 12:59 PM
Yup, he was hurt, and thats my point. We don't know how his body will respond to, all of a sudden, pitching a complete season. That's a lot of fatigue in one season after years with little work.