PDA

View Full Version : Free Brad Halsey!



Irony Of It All
11-17-04, 11:24 PM
So I'm looking through my copy of "The Hardball Times Baseball Annual" and I just happen to look at some of Halsey's stats while in the majors. What immediately stood out to me was his 4.85 FIP - Eric Milton had a 5.39 FIP, but I'm sure Halsey couldn't outperform him next year....

To ease my nerves and restore my faith in the Yankees' front office, I decided to look for some legitimate reasons to keep Halsey out of the starting rotation next year. Thus far, I have found very little.

2004 Stats (in the majors):

IP P/PA H K BB HR RA FIP DER LD% G/F IN/FLY K/9 K/BB BB/9 HR/9
32.0 3.96 41 25 14 4 7.31 4.85 .657 .171 1.09 .093 7.0 1.79 3.9 1.1
League Average 5.04 4.64 .686*.177 1.17 .155 6.4 1.94 3.3 1.2
*I actually used the 2004 Yankees' DER, not the league average.


The only, and I mean only, thing that is at all worrying to me in Halsey's limited sample size is his control. His BB/9 and P/PA are much higher than you'd like to see, especially for someone that's not a strikeout machine. But at the same time I can't say I'm too worried about his control because his BB/9 at Columbus this year was only 2.31. Also, his PA Outcomes paints a brighter picture of his brief tenure up in the bigs.

K BB GB OF IF LD
16% 10% 31% 25% 3% 12%
17% 10% 32% 22% 4% 13%
*Once again Halsey's stats are on the top and the league average (in this case the entire MLB) on the bottom.

In almost every single category Halsey is slightly below league average or slightly above league average. And everything he has done in the minors points toward him being a successful pitcher in the majors. I have yet to find a legitimate reason that he should not be the #5 starter next year.

Not giving Halsey a fair shot next year is a bad move for any team. Not giving him a shot because you're interested in someone like Eric Miltion is a whole new level of stupidity. It would be the equivalent of a guy who already has someone that wants to be his girlfriend, going to the mall and picking up an uglier, older, and more expensive girl just because you want someone that's "proven". Oh, and she would probably have your name tattooed on her ass. No properly functioning guy would do this, just like no properly functioning team would choose Milton.

Halsey is young, cheap, and if his defense helps him out at all next year, he'll likely be an above average #5 starter. Worst case scenario, Halsey flops and the Yankees have to acquire a #5 starter by the trading deadline; best case, Halsey pitches like he's capable of and the Yankees have a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the next 10 years or so. It's not a difficult decision.

reelbiggecko
11-17-04, 11:48 PM
He needs to have SOME sort of role with the 2005 Yankees, be it a starter, a long man, or a lefty specialist. He's proved everything you can possibly prove at AAA, now it's just a battle of him vs. the Yankee baseball minds that hate having a player struggle while developing in their system. They'd rather sign a veteran free agent and have him struggle while he adjusts.

AngelAstro
11-18-04, 07:39 AM
Very nice IoiA. You have me convinced, unfortunately, my opinion doesn't matter.

I would like to see Halsey given a chance in the rotation, but realistically, this isn't going to happen. I do believe that he will be kept on as a long relief man now that Sturtze (if he is still with the team) will have a more prominant role. As Halsey is still young (23 or 24), this may not be such a bad idea - it worked for Johan Santana at least.

We just have to hope that Cashman has enough say to keep Milton off this team.

WebsterMulligan
11-18-04, 11:03 AM
Nice analysis, Irony! The decision to give Halsey the chance in the #5 spot, makes too much sense. However, George is too busy putting together a fantasy team, to do something logical.

WiffleWOOD
11-18-04, 04:25 PM
2004 numbers, with Halsey's 32 IP separated from his 144 IP with Columbus.


IP FIP DERA LD% K/9 BB/9 K/BB G/F HR/9
Milton 201 5.38 .737 .175 7.2 3.4 2.15 .57 1.9
Halsey 32 4.85 .657 .171 7.0 3.9 1.79 1.09 1.1
" " AAA 144 6.81 2.3 2.94 .49

Looks like Halsey can match anything that Milton can give us, best him in many categories, and cost nothing. Of course, Halsey has a small sample size, but I think Milton's sample size is large enough to conclude that he sucks.

JeffWeaverFan
11-18-04, 09:32 PM
Originally posted by WebsterMulligan
Nice analysis, Irony! The decision to give Halsey the chance in the #5 spot, makes too much sense. However, George is too busy putting together a fantasy team, to do something logical.
I have no problem giving Brad Halsey a shot at starting, but I would be worried with him as our #5 starter. I mean, this guy did post a 6.47 ERA in his 8 games... I saw a lot of good things in him and I have no problem with him starting when someone goes on the DL, but for him to be our legitimate #5 starter would worry me a bit. I'd prefer he got another year under his belt in AAA and then given the opportunity to win the job to start in 2006. I should add though that I agree that I would rather have him start than Eric Milton.

nahzo
11-19-04, 01:45 AM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
Looks like Halsey can match anything that Milton can give us, best him in many categories, and cost nothing. Of course, Halsey has a small sample size, but I think Milton's sample size is large enough to conclude that he sucks. You know wiffle, I think the sample size is actually somewhat a non issue in this instance, as contrarian as it sounds. Milton is so godawful in almost every single cat. that it doesn't even matter.

WiffleWOOD
11-19-04, 07:29 AM
i just noticed that Milton had the most extreme G/F in all of baseball (extreme flyball pitcher, obviously).

Can we examine two reasons why this is awful for the Yankees?

1. Of course, this means a ton of these balls are flying out of the park (43 of them).

2. It means the rest of them have to be caught by our OF, the one that has a collective UZR of -66.

hardrain
11-19-04, 08:49 AM
I've just been spending hours with Lee Sinnis' updated baseball encyclopedia CD - and according to my research - let's see if i can say this right -
No one in the history of baseball has given up as many HRs as Milton has in 201 innings.

So, all those who have given up more HRs in a season, and there are precious few, have all done it in more innings. Moonshot Milton indeed.

hardrain
11-19-04, 08:56 AM
ok - so Milton is 2nd to Jose Lima in 2000 -
but I agree that I'd much rather give halsey the shot

NJASDJDH
11-19-04, 09:36 AM
My stance on this issue is known.

WiffleWOOD
11-19-04, 09:47 AM
Originally posted by NJASDJDH
My stance on this issue is known.

apparently, it goes without saying. ;)

we're a brother/sisterhood in here. Saber Forum, unite against Milton!

hardrain
11-19-04, 09:51 AM
is there anyone in the Yankee front office with a saber mentality? Does Cashman or anyone for that matter even read The James Handbook or dig into saber stats?

ok - don't laugh - I think i answered my own question

AngelAstro
11-19-04, 10:03 AM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
apparently, it goes without saying. ;)

we're a brother/sisterhood in here. Saber Forum, unite against Milton!

I don't think the 6 or so people that frequent this forum on a regular basis are going to be able to convince the Yankee Front Office that we are correct and that they are horribly, horribly wrong. :)

WiffleWOOD
11-19-04, 10:37 AM
Originally posted by AngelAstro


I don't think the 6 or so people that frequent this forum on a regular basis are going to be able to convince the Yankee Front Office that we are correct and that they are horribly, horribly wrong. :)

yeah, but we are 6 damn smart people.

JJBNYC
11-19-04, 12:21 PM
They haven't signed him yet, and maybe they don't intend to. It's hard to believe that they don't know how bad an idea Milton is. The whole thing might be little more than media speculation/a front-office smokescreen.

nahzo
11-19-04, 01:48 PM
I don't know, because I only really follow rumors on this board, but has the Milton talk died down recently? After the whole article about Cashman receiving e-mails from fans, I thought most of the Milton hearsay was dropped pretty quickly, at least with regards to the Yankees. Am I out of the loop?

ForceFive
11-20-04, 02:40 PM
Originally posted by nahzo
I don't know, because I only really follow rumors on this board, but has the Milton talk died down recently? After the whole article about Cashman receiving e-mails from fans, I thought most of the Milton hearsay was dropped pretty quickly, at least with regards to the Yankees. Am I out of the loop?

Yes, it seems to have died down. THANK GOD.

Just Say No to Moonshot Milton! Free Brad Halsey!

JavyVazquezIsSick
11-20-04, 10:55 PM
I don't believe the Yankee brass is comparing Halsey and Milton. The signing of Milton would come without any kind of statistical analysis and without any kind of thought. I think we could do a lot better than Halsey in the rotation. Although he has great control and compsure, he still throws a ball around 90 and below. He might have some role on next year's team but certainly not as a starting pitcher...