Who should win the Cy Young this year?

[TinoBambino]

I think Zito has been hands down the most consistant this year and deserves it.

[Sascha]

- wrong forum
- http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33761
- currently tending to Zito :)

[BronxBaumer]

I said Barry Zito as well...but maybe a moderator can move this when they see it?

[NYYFAN]

Zito hands down...

[Coney36]

Agree with all of you...Zito :)

[patrick.o]

Out of those three guys Zito ranks last in Innings per Start, ERA, WHIP, SLG, OBP, OPS, K, K/9, BB, BB/9, and BA.

Out of those three Martinez on the other hand ranks 1st in ERA, WHIP, OBP, OPS, K, K/9, BB, BB/9, BA, and Winning %.

My vote is for Martinez.

[deranged2005]

The voters seem to like Cinderalla stories (Ichiro last year, Clemens as well).

My vote goes to Lowe.

[DJeter1287]

As most of you have said.. ZITO!! Hands down!!

[Flashfire]

Originally posted by patrick.o
Out of those three guys Zito ranks last in Innings per Start, ERA, WHIP, SLG, OBP, OPS, K, K/9, BB, BB/9, and BA.

Out of those three Martinez on the other hand ranks 1st in ERA, WHIP, OBP, OPS, K, K/9, BB, BB/9, BA, and Winning %.

My vote is for Martinez.

In this case, there's more to it than just the stats. Zito's been a rock for the A's this year, and his record following an A's loss (after a quick check on ESPN.com's results for the team) is 13-1, a few of those coming during that big May swoon the team had. He's also had a record of 11-2 after the All-Star break with an ERA of 1.94. 5-0 in July (1.66 ERA), 4-2 in August (2.16), and 3-0 in September (2.48). Solid, solid stuff.

No, Zito hasn't been dominating in the way Pedro has, but even with some of my bias as an A's fan factored in, Zito's been better than Pedro when it's counted, and he's had more important games than Pedro as well.

[Stealthspy]

Originally posted by Flashfire

Solid, solid stuff.

No, Zito hasn't been dominating in the way Pedro has, but even with some of my bias as an A's fan factored in, Zito's been better than Pedro when it's counted, and he's had more important games than Pedro as well.

Yup. :) . Very solid. Pedro and his injuries.......No ;)

[Afu-Ra]

Originally posted by patrick.o
Out of those three guys Zito ranks last in Innings per Start, ERA, WHIP, SLG, OBP, OPS, K, K/9, BB, BB/9, and BA.


He also has more quality starts than the other 2 and has pitched far better after his team loses. He also pitched for a contender and essentially is the A's MVP. If he didn't pitch the way he did in April, May, and June (while Hudson, Mulder, and Lidle were stinking it up), the A's would be getting ready to watch playoff baseball from their homes right now, just like Pedro and Lowe are going to be doing.

Zito for AL CYA

[YanksRockMan]

Definitely Zito..hes got all the credentials in being a Cy Young winner..

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by Afu-Ra
He also has more quality starts
I couldn't find quality start numbers and can't remember exactly what the parameters are, but they've each had 14 starts in which they've gone at least 7 innings and given up 2 or less earned runs. And Pedro made 11 starts in which he gave up zero runs as compared to 7 for Zito.

and has pitched far better after his team loses.
Far better is a bit of a stretch. I count Pedro at 13-3 after a loss compared to 13-1 for Zito. And it's not like Pedro was useless - in each of those three losses he gave up 3 runs.

He also pitched for a contender
??? Unless I have my years mixed up the Sox were contenders this season. They held the division lead for the first half of the year and were within striking distance until the last month. They might have fallen short but they definitely contended.

[Afu-Ra]

Originally posted by patrick.o

I couldn't find quality start numbers and can't remember exactly what the parameters are, but they've each had 14 starts in which they've gone at least 7 innings and given up 2 or less earned runs. And Pedro made 11 starts inwhich he gave up zero runs as compared to 7 for Zito.

Zito has 26 quality starts, Lowe has 24, and Pedro has 22

Originally posted by patrick.o
??? Unless I have my years mixed up the Sox were contenders this season. They held the division lead for the first half of the year and were within strinking distance until the last month. They might have fallen short but they definitely contended.

The Sox were 7 games back entering September while the A's had the Angels breathing down their necks. Zito is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in the month of September; the most important month and he is essentially what kept the Angels from taking over first place in the AL West. Zito kept his team alive when they were sputtering and has pitched brilliantly down the stretch when it was most important.

The most important thing to look at is that Pedro has pitched on 6 days' rest quite frequently. Zito has pitched on more than four days' rest only 6 times this season in comparison to Lowe's 12 and Pedro's 15. Give Zito all those extra days of rest and take all those innings off his arm and imagine what his final numbers are like.

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by Afu-Ra
Zito is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in the month of September; the most important month and he is essentially what kept the Angels from taking over first place in the AL West. Zito kept his team alive when they were sputtering and has pitched brilliantly down the stretch when it was most important.
Say what? Zito is what kept the Angels back? Zito hasn't even been the best starter on his team in September. Tim Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a .254BAA. Mulder is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a .202 BAA.

You make it sound like while Zito was being great for his team Pedro was out mowing the lawn. In July when the Sox were fighting to hold the division from the charging Yanks Pedro was 5-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 59 Ks and opponents batted .154 off him. In August while the Sox were struggling to stay in it he had a 1.69 ERA and held batters to a .193 average. Since the break he's got a 1.61 ERA and opponents have batted .189.

And here's some numbers against some specific teams, all contenders:

Zito
vs Anaheim: 4.03 ERA, .271 BAA (5 starts)
vs Seattle: 4.94 ERA, .277BAA (4)
vs Yankees: 5.73 ERA, .275BAA (2)

Martinez
vs Anaheim .056 ERA, .154 BAA (2)
vs Seattle 1.13 ERA, .182BAA (2)
vs Yankees 3.46 ERA, .181 BAA (4)


Just curious - where did you find the QS numbers? I looked at sportsline, ESPN, and MLB and couldn't find them.

[jroll]

ERA is great, KO per IP is great, OPS against, they all should be looked at.
But you should also look at innings actually pitched. Pedro had 30 starts and 199 innings, while Zito had 34 starts and 223 innings. The question you have to ask is, would you rather have a starter who gave you four additional quality starts, including two in September, though he has a half-run higher era. I'd take the additional starts and innings, especially if I'm in a pennant race.

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by jroll
But you should also look at innings actually pitched. Pedro had 30 starts and 199 innings, while Zito had 34 starts and 223 innings. The question you have to ask is, would you rather have a starter who gave you four additional quality starts, including two in September, though he has a half-run higher era. I'd take the additional starts and innings, especially if I'm in a pennant race.
While I don't disagree with your point, in this case it doesn't have a great effect. If the Sox lost the division by 3 games you could look at Pedro's lesser amount of starts as a liability. But even if Pedro had made and won those 4 starts the Sox still don't win the division and still don't win the wild card. And when he does pitch he actually stays in the game longer than Zito - 6.64 innings per start compared to 6.58. And consider that 6 times this season Pedro got a win while pitching only 6 innings or less. By my count that's about 10-15 garbage innings another pitcher would have tacked on to their total that Pedro didn't get because it was in the teams best interest to pull him. I don't penalize him because his manager kept his starts and innings low.

[Hitman23]

Zito deserves it, Pedro is going to get it.

[jroll]

Originally posted by patrick.o

While I don't disagree with your point, in this case it doesn't have a great effect. If the Sox lost the division by 3 games you could look at Pedro's lesser amount of starts as a liability. But even if Pedro had made and won those 4 starts the Sox still don't win the division and still don't win the wild card. And when he does pitch he actually stays in the game longer than Zito - 6.64 innings per start compared to 6.58. And consider that 6 times this season Pedro got a win while pitching only 6 innings or less. By my count that's about 10-15 garbage innings another pitcher would have tacked on to their total that Pedro didn't get because it was in the teams best interest to pull him. I don't penalize him because his manager kept his starts and innings low.

The Cy Young is not supposed to be about what effect a pitcher's performance has on his team's ability to get into the playoffs. My only point is that while Pedro has been slightly more effective when he's actually pitching, Zito has been able to take the ball about four more times this season, and that would, to me, outweigh Pedro's superior numbers. In other words, I think durability should be the deciding factor in deciding the thing. At the same time, I can't blame anyone from seeing it the other way. It's that close.

[Flashfire]

Originally posted by patrick.o

Say what? Zito is what kept the Angels back? Zito hasn't even been the best starter on his team in September. Tim Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a .254BAA. Mulder is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a .202 BAA.

Translation: Zito's been great, but a couple other pitchers on his team have been even better over that period.

That's not much of a point.

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by Flashfire
Translation: Zito's been great, but a couple other pitchers on his team have been even better over that period.

That's not much of a point.
What do you mean it's not much of a point? The statement was made that Zito "is essentially what kept the Angels from taking over first place" and that's not true. The A's as a team held the Angels at bay. It took great performances by many players to do it. No single player did it alone.
Zito was great down the stretch and deserves all the credit in the world for that, but he didn't carry the team on his shoulders to the division title and he doesn't deserve extra consideration for something he didn't do. I think that's a pretty valid point.

(And in Zito's one September opportunity to hold back the Angels he was less than spectacular. He got the W which is the most important thing, but he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in only 5.1 innings.)

[patrick.o]

Another good start and victory for Zito today. I'm anxious not only to find out who wins but also to see if the voting is as close as I would think it should be or if one guy walks away with it easily.

I do wonder if Art Howe knew that Minnesota is 22-29 against lefties though. Zito starting today means that he'll only get one start in that series while Hudson will get two.

[jroll]

Originally posted by patrick.o
Another good start and victory for Zito today. I'm anxious not only to find out who wins but also to see if the voting is as close as I would think it should be or if one guy walks away with it easily.

I do wonder if Art Howe knew that Minnesota is 22-29 against lefties though. Zito starting today means that he'll only get one start in that series while Hudson will get two.

I thought that a strange decision too.

[Flashfire]

That's just the way the rotation worked out and Howe probably didn't want to hold out Zito from making his last start. I'm sure he knows about Minnesota's struggles against lefties, but he's still going to have three games max with the lefties starting, and Hudson in the other two. I'd take my chances with that any day.

[junkman73]

My vote is for Zito--35 starts--took the ball every time out. Pedro came up lame when the Sox needed him most.

One week after the Yankees beat Pedro in Boston, the Sox had shaved 2.5 games off the Yankees lead and were sitting 6.5 games back with an opporunity to throw Pedro and Lowe back-to-back. The Sox could have came out of NY only 4.5 games out and possibly made things interesting but Pedro sat out.

I know stats are important--but what about that 'gamer mentality' that you talk about when talking about great pitchers? Zito also pitched in a tougher division and fared better against teams over .500. 30 more IP is a lot. Zito. Period.

[jroll]

Originally posted by Flashfire
That's just the way the rotation worked out and Howe probably didn't want to hold out Zito from making his last start. I'm sure he knows about Minnesota's struggles against lefties, but he's still going to have three games max with the lefties starting, and Hudson in the other two. I'd take my chances with that any day.

I thought it was a mistake by Howe, until I actually looked at the numbers. Mulder and Hudson are lights out against Minnesota but Zito has positively stunk against the Twins: 10.54 era over the past three years with a .345 batting average against, though he was much better this year in two starts. Howe knew what he was doing limiting Zito to just one start. Looking at these numbers, the more I'm convinced the Twins should be happy just making the playoffs.

[Bozidar]

Both Pedro and Zito have made 17 starts against teams with a sub .500 record. In their other starts:

Pedro has 7 wins, 4 losses.
Zito has 11 wins, 4 losses.

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by Bozidar
Both Pedro and Zito have made 17 starts against teams with a sub .500 record. In their other starts:

Pedro has 7 wins, 4 losses.
Zito has 11 wins, 4 losses.
Just curious, are those sub .500 records at the time of the start or at the end of the season?

[Bozidar]

Originally posted by patrick.o
Just curious, are those sub .500 records at the time of the start or at the end of the season? end of the season.

[patrick.o]

Ok, I did some homework-

Pedro -
14 starts against teams over .500
8W-4L-2ND
16 starts against teams at or under .500
12W-0L-4ND

Zito-
17 starts against teams over .500
11W-3L-3ND
18 starts against teams at or under .500
12W-2L-4ND

Interesting numbers. Zito was better against over .500 teams winning almost 65% of those starts compared to Pedro winning 57%.
Pedro was better against sub .500 teams winning 75% of those starts compared to Zito at about 67%.
Overall, Pedro had a .666 win per start ratio while Zito was at .657.

After thinking about it the last couple days, I'm more torn than I was about who has had the better year. Initially I thought Pedro deserved it hands down based on his superior stats, but now I'm not as sure as I was. I do think Zito will win though.

[Bozidar]

they got nearly the same run support, which is surprising considering that Oakland is an average offensive team.

[Ansky39]

my vote goes to pedro...


AL Leaders in Earned Run Average (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos 2.26 (50/199.1)
2. Derek Lowe Bos 2.58 (63/219.2)
3. Barry Zito Oak 2.75 (70/229.1)


AL Leaders in Wins (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
----------------------------------------------
1. Barry Zito Oak 23
2. Derek Lowe Bos 21
3. Pedro Martinez Bos 20


AL Leaders in Win-Loss Percentage (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
15 decisions (0.1 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos .833 (20-4)
2. Barry Zito Oak .821 (23-5)
3. Jarrod Washburn Ana .750 (18-6)
4. Billy Koch Oak .733 (11-4)
5t Roy Halladay Tor .731 (19-7)
Mark Mulder Oak .731 (19-7)
David Wells NYY .731 (19-7)
8. Derek Lowe Bos .724 (21-8)


AL Leaders in Hits/9 IP (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos 6.50 (144/199.1)
2. Tim Wakefield Bos 6.67 (121/163.1)
3. Derek Lowe Bos 6.80 (166/219.2)
4. Barry Zito Oak 7.14 (182/229.1)


AL Leaders in Baserunners per 9 IP (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos 9.0 (199/199.1)
2. Derek Lowe Bos 9.3 (226/219.2)
3. Tim Wakefield Bos 10.0 (181/163.1)
4. Jamie Moyer Sea 10.0 (257/230.2)
5. Barry Zito Oak 10.6 (269/229.1)


AL Leaders in Home Runs per 9 IP (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Roy Halladay Tor .38 (10/239.1)
2. Derek Lowe Bos .49 (12/219.2)
3. Pedro Martinez Bos .59 (13/199.1)


AL Leaders in Strikeouts per 9 IP (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos 10.79 (239/199.1)
2. Roger Clemens NYY 9.60 (192/180.0)
3. Mike Mussina NYY 7.60 (182/215.2)
4. Tim Wakefield Bos 7.38 (134/163.1)
5. Freddy Garcia Sea 7.28 (181/223.2)
6. Barry Zito Oak 7.14 (182/229.1)


AL Leaders in Batting Average Allowed (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos .198 (144/726)
2. Tim Wakefield Bos .204 (121/592)
3. Derek Lowe Bos .211 (166/787)
4. Barry Zito Oak .218 (182/836)


AL Leaders in Slugging Pct Allowed (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Derek Lowe Bos .302 (238/787)
2. Pedro Martinez Bos .309 (224/726)
3. Tim Wakefield Bos .333 (197/592)
4. Roy Halladay Tor .333 (304/913)
5. Barry Zito Oak .340 (284/836)


AL Leaders in On-Base Average Allowed (Thru games of SEP-29-2002)
162 IP (1.0 per scheduled game)
----------------------------------------------
1. Pedro Martinez Bos .254 (199/785)
2. Derek Lowe Bos .266 (226/849)
3. Tim Wakefield Bos .276 (181/656)
4. Jamie Moyer Sea .278 (257/926)
5. Rick Reed Min .288 (224/777)
6. Paul Byrd KC .288 (269/933)
7. Jarrod Washburn Ana .289 (245/848)
8. Barry Zito Oak .289 (269/930)



VORP
Johnson_Randy 86.9
Lowe_Derek 79.0
Schilling_Curt 70.8
Martinez_Pedro 68.7
Halladay_Roy 66.1
Zito_Barry 65.0





Sagarin ratings
Final 2002 American League Pitchers thru games of Sunday, September 29
162 or more innings pitched

1 Martinez, Pedro
2 Lowe, Derek
3 Wakefield, Tim
4 Halladay, Roy
5 Zito, Barry

[Yankchic22]

As much as it kills me to do this, I voted for Martinez. No Yankee had numbers like that.

[Bozidar]

yes.. and as i've said, Zito has faced tougher compitition, and has gotten his extra W's against the teams that have put together .500+ records this season.

Pedro, on the other hand, limp-dicked it at the end of the year, and got more of his W's against the sub .500 teams.

They're both great pitchers, but i give the edge to the guy who lead his team to the playoffs, had more wins, and had tougher compition.

[Ansky39]

Originally posted by Bozidar
yes.. and as i've said, Zito has faced tougher compitition, and has gotten his extra W's against the teams that have put together .500+ records this season.

Pedro, on the other hand, limp-dicked it at the end of the year, and got more of his W's against the sub .500 teams.

They're both great pitchers, but i give the edge to the guy who lead his team to the playoffs, had more wins, and had tougher compition.

if we're going to factor subjective assessments of competition into the equation why not also include park factors too... i doubt most voters will go this far when pedor's overall numbers are tops in every category...


here's BigBadBaseball's take on the CY...


A SEMI-MODEST CY YOUNG VOTING SCHEME

OK, enough foreplay. Here’s how the data looks for the American League Cy Young Award:



Pitcher ERA BR/9 WPCT OOBP OSLG ERA R ERA H SUB TOT
Martinez BOS 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 66
Lowe BOS 9 9 5 9 10 6 10 58
Zito OAK 8 6 9 3 7 7 8 48 http://www.bigbadbaseball.com/

here's cnnsi:
1 Pedro Martinez, Red Sox
2 Derek Lowe, Red Sox
3 Barry Zito, Athletics

Forget quality starts (at least six innings with no more than three earned runs allowed), a template for mediocrity that allows for a 4.50 ERA. Look at how many times these two delivered what we might call superlative starts, lasting at least eight innings and giving up no more than two earned runs, a 2.25 ERA equivalent. Schilling turned in seven such outings; Johnson had 11. Give the edge, and the award, to Johnson.

The superlative start count is useful in divining an AL award winner too. Lowe and Zito each had five; Martinez had 10, an enormous difference. But wait. Didn't Zito (22-5, 2.74) win the most games? And didn't Lowe (21-7, 2.45) throw a no-hitter? And didn't Martinez (20-4, 2.26) fatten up on losing teams (12-0)? True. But so is all this: Martinez had a lower ERA against winning teams than Zito or Lowe (2.14 to 3.63 and 2.91, respectively), more strikeouts per walk (6.0 to 2.4 and 2.7), a lower opponents' batting average (.198 to .218 and .210), a better winning percentage (.833 to .815 and .750) and more strikeouts (239 to 176 and 122).


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/features/2002/awards/cy_young/

[patrick.o]

Thanks, Kurt. I was beginning to have doubts about my convictions, but you've brought me back to reality. My vote stays with Pedro. Sometimes numbers lie but in this case they don't. He was the best pitcher in the AL this year and he led the entire majors in ERA, OPS against, and WHIP. I still have a feeling that Zito's gonna win, but Pedro deserves it more.


Uhh. Defending Pedro make me want to :barf:

[jroll]

All BigBadBaseball's numbers are great, except none of them are innings pitched. Zito had five more starts and 30 more innings pitched. All the strikeout numbers and era numbers and the rest mean nothing if you don't take the hill. If Pedro had the five extra starts and the 30 innings Zito had, maybe his team gets into the playoffs. They'd at least have been competitive down the stretch. If I'm the manager of Team X, I'd take Zito's season over Pedro's.

[patrick.o]

Originally posted by jroll
The Cy Young is not supposed to be about what effect a pitcher's performance has on his team's ability to get into the playoffs. Originally posted by jroll
If Pedro had the five extra starts and the 30 innings Zito had, maybe his team gets into the playoffs.
You're confusing me now. It seems like you're saying the extra innings and starts are what makes the difference in this race because they were more valuable in helping the team get to the playoffs, but helping the team get to the playoffs shouldn't be considered? I know there is probably some nuance I'm missing, but I can't see it.

[jroll]

The Cy Young is supposed to go to the best pitcher, not the most valuable pitcher. But I think that innings pitched is an important component of what makes a pitcher effective. I used the playoff consideration as an explanation for why games started and innings pitched should be an important consideration from a team point of view. My larger point is that if I were a manager I'd rather have a guy throw 230 innings with a 2.75 era than one who throws 200 at 2.25. I think you'll win more games that way. And I think the won-loss record of the two contenders (Lowe shouldn't even be included in this discussion) backs that contention up. And after all the stats are boiled down, it's wins and losses that really matter for both offensive and defensive players. Since neither Pedro nor Zito enjoyed a significant advantage in run support, won-loss record is a pretty solid indicator of how effective these two guys are overall. As I said before, this is an extremely close race and I understand the argument for Pedro, and don't think a grave injustice would be done if he wins.

[Jersey Yankee]

Barry Zito (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6394), LHP, OAK

W L ERA GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BB:SO BAA
23 5 2.75 35 1 0 229.1 182 79 70 24 78 182 .429 .218

Pedro Martinez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=4875), RHP, BOS

W L ERA GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BB:SO BAA
20 4 2.26 30 2 0 199.1 144 62 50 13 40 239 .167 .198

Derek Lowe (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5801), RHP, BOS

W L ERA GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BB:SO BAA
21 8 2.58 32 1 1 219.2 166 65 63 12 48 127 .378 .211

[nyy angel]

My vote also goes to Zito. 23-4 is GREAT. Hes also on a playoff team. Who knows where the As be without him:confused: :confused: :confused:
I REALLY hope Pedro doesnt get it :evil: :evil: :evil: