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View Full Version : Pitching Comparison (Top 5 In A Formula) 2006 To 2007



EvanJ
06-18-07, 03:14 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy has the formula for the ESPN Cy Young Predictor. For 2006, I added up the values of the Top 5 Yankees from that formula (excluding the 12 point victory bonus which would make the gap between the years even bigger if it was included). The sum was 565.34. For 2007, I calculated the value for every pitcher and multiplied by 162/67 to calculate a 162 game pace (we have played 67 games so far). The sum of the 2007 pace for the Top 5 this year is only 382.052. That's 183.288 worse than last year.

I then looked at the components of the gap. The Yankees are on pace for 19 saves this year and had 43 saves last year. At 2.5 points per save, that's a difference of 60 points (32.7 percent of the gap). The Yankees points directly from their wins and losses last year was 452 and the pace for that this year is 353.015. That's a difference of 98.985 (54.0 percent of the gap). The Yankees got 84.917 points from strikeouts last year and are only on pace to get 73.142 points from strikeouts this year. That's a gap of 11.775 which is 6.4 percent of the gap. Combined those three factors account for 93.2 percent of the gap between years. I hope I did all the calculations correctly.

Here's the Cy Young Predictor score for the Top 5 Yankees last year and the 162 game pace for the Top 5 Yankees so far this year:

Wang (2006): 144.944 Wang (2007): 125.575
Rivera (2006): 136.250 Pettite (2007): 99.806
Mussina (2006): 122.963 Rivera (2007): 71.799
Johnson (2006): 94.222 Bruney (2007): 51.448
Wright (2006): 66.963 Henn (2007): 33.425

Rivera's 2006 score is nearly double has 2007 pace and if you add in the victory bonus (12 points last year, somewhere near 3 points this year based on the standings), the ratio would get even bigger. Wang's score is worse despite having a better ERA than he did last year. If he had been healthy the whole season with the same ERA he has now his 2007 pace might have been bigger than his 2006 score.

With victory bonus included, Wang was fourth and Rivera fifth in the AL last year.

Note that it is hard for a middle reliever (a pitcher without a lot of wins or saves) to have a great score.

EvanJ
06-22-07, 12:18 PM
The sum of the Top 5 scores on the 2005 Yankees were almost as high as the 2006 Yankees. I also did the top 2007 Red Sox to compare. The sum of the Top 5 2007 Red Sox is about 74 percent higher than the sum of the Top 5 2007 Yankees. Boston's top scorer, Beckett, is over 50 percent higher than our top scorer, Wang. Boston's second highest scorer, Matsuzaka, is a little ahead of Wang. Boston's third best through sixth best scorers are Papelbon, Schilling, Wakefield, and Okajima, and all four of them are ahead of Pettitte, our second best scorer. Also, since I started this topic Vizcaino has passed Henn to enter the Top 5 2007 Yankees.